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cases continue to dominate the headlines, while deaths reported per day continue to decline.
at some point these two data points either have to begin to show more of a statistical link, or we need to have a more candid conversation about what actions caused the initial disaster of deaths by Covid. My hunches:
- Super protection of nursing homes has limited spread to the elderly, knocking out one of the key death factors
- doctors have gotten smarter about how to treat, and have possibly removed a significant death factor from the equation in many cases (ventilators).
- younger people are being tested and the numerator (cases) is way, way bigger than anyone thought (though I am posting about absolute rates here, not relative ones).
- possibly, we are counting deaths differently now, or were then? The old “death from vs death with” that may have inflated death numbers during the early hysteria.
thoughts?
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
I can’t believe political leaders implemented policies costing more than $6 trillion without resolving the issues you highlight in advance?
There has to be a better approach for managing in an uncertain environment?
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
Death rates, as well as total cases in Contra Costa have spiked recently with little public explanation from the county as to where the increases are happening. That said, there was a news report that at one senior facility in Concord, 18 people have recently died in a major outbreak. So much for super protection. . . .
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[quote quote=1055]I can’t believe political leaders implemented policies costing more than $6 trillion resolving the issues you highlight. There has to be a better approach for managing in an uncertain environment?[/quote]
There is, but we stopped letting people own their own risk a long time ago. The federal government as a backstop to every major risk to the elite class is expected of not codified.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
Certainly more testing means more cases are caught. So that is a factor in the rise. Which is why I look at the percentage of positives tests on total tests. That number has risen slightly in Bay Area. Significantly in LA. And even more so in some states (Ariz, Texas, Fla being the poster states for this).
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The positive rate has increased lately, but it is by no means “high” compared to May, when tests were becoming more readily available.
I’m not at all arguing against your point, but am trying to provide context. The recent blip in positive rates may mean people are getting sicker, but it can also mean that fewer doctors are ordering the tests for anybody who is curious. Greater test discipline has to be factored in.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
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[quote quote=1064]True Legend. In a lot of ways, it’s all a guessing game. Which makes it that much more frustrating. And worrisome[/quote]
if one looks hard enough, one can find a lot of information to ease one’s mind. I monitor a couple of sites. In summary and as of Friday: cases up, deaths down, hospitalizations still low, hospital ICU capacity still very high, ie no threat of being overwhelmed. TL hits the issue on the head.
it is much less of a guessing game now. What I find appalling is that the authorities, who have all the data won’t share with the rest of us, but are satisfied to keep us guessing and anxious. They are either incompetent or treat us ignoramuses like mushrooms.
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I think a big partof it is reaction to Trump”s “what, me worry” bullshit. He won’t sound ANY alarm. Acts as if it’s just an annoyance that will go away. So we get the over the top fearmongers in response.
The mask thing was the last straw for me with Trump and this virus. His “stance” on masks was pathetic. They are a minor inconvenience. And they very well may save some lives. What was the downside of saying “wear a mask”? Just from a pure risk benefit analysis.
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[quote quote=1076]I think a big partof it is reaction to Trump”s “what, me worry” bullshit. He won’t sound ANY alarm. Acts as if it’s just an annoyance that will go away.[/quote]
lex, your prejudices are coloring your judgment.
-Who suspended travel with China?
-Who was independently singled out by Cuomo & Newsom both as providing them with everything they need to respond to the virus?
-Who put up 10,000+ ICU beds within 90 days?
-Who integrated the military in the national response to effectively manage logistics?
-Who has green lighted vaccines development and put strategic bets behind the acceleration of future distribution?
-Who fast tracked our entry into the mask and Ventilator businesses?
-Who established daily briefings for the public and first line managers at the state level to insure information access and transparency?
And then we have Lex bitching about masks when he knows nothing about the White House protocols for protecting the health of the President? Lex says the Orange One won’t sound alarms when there is 24X7 news coverage misrepresenting the implications of elevated test results? Lex fails to acknowledge the absolute need to reopen the economy or the risk mitigation protocols that businesses have implemented? (Lex, when you put on your mask and venture out to the store and converse through plexiglass with the cashier, is that your idea of inappropriate messaging that leads people to conclude the virus is “an inconvenience that will go away”?)
Youre at least as convincing as Don Lemon.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
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[quote quote=1082]JFC Bob (not Lexie Bob). The most visible thing he could have done was to wear a mask. Millions would have followed him. He rates an F in common sense.[/quote]
T.C., I’m as certain as you are that the people in the streets the last month plus would ALL have worn masks if the Orange One had. We’ve seen how they all seek to personally model the President’s behavior. Trumpinistas, one and all, right? They live obediently seeking his recognition & approval.
Sillier still is your assertion that, “Millions would have followed him.” I can’t go in a store without a mask…nor can you. Pray tell, what do the personal habits of the Orange One have to do with our compliance?
JFC, indeed.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
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[quote quote=1079][quote quote=1076]I think a big partof it is reaction to Trump”s “what, me worry” bullshit. He won’t sound ANY alarm. Acts as if it’s just an annoyance that will go away.[/quote] lex, your prejudices are coloring your judgment.[/quote]
Trump literally said what Lex is suggesting. From an interview on Fox the other day:
“I think we’re going to be very good with the coronavirus,” Trump said. “I think that, at some point, that’s going to sort of disappear, I hope.”
“You still believe so?” replied Burman. “Disappear?”“Well, I do, I do,” Trump replied. “Yeah, sure.”
This is consistent with his initial claims about the virus back in the early days:
“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.” (January 22nd)
“I think the virus is going to be—it’s going to be fine… Looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.” (February 10th).
“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA” (Feb 24th)
“The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
“It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.” (Feb 27)
Source (with a much bigger summary): https://doggett.house.gov/media-center/blog-posts/timeline-trump-s-coronavirus-responses
Trump has done a few reasonable things and some unreasonable things. But regardless of the specifics, he has shown zero leadership on exactly what Lex is saying. He refuses to wear a mask in public, projects that it’s no big deal, and allows masks to be optional at his rallies.
NO MALARKEY
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BTD, I don’t find your cites persuasive in the least. Instead, I’ll reflect on Rachael Maddow’s 2017 standard and use it in the evaluation of the Orange response.
Give this a read. Here is the first paragraph from the piece. “It was obvious President Trump had a different tone last night – that cannot be denied. The words were better, the presentation was better. Some of the ideas and rationale behind it were even good. Breaking the cycle of poverty? Yes, obviously, Democrats will get behind that. But I love what Rachael Maddow has been saying, and I have begun to adopt this same motto with this administration: “Watch what they do, not what they say.””
I find it unpersuasive to cite isolated excerpts from public pronouncements for two simple reasons. First, I don’t see any reference to the numerous instances where Trump spoke specifically about the damage done to the world by the Chinese failures in responding to the pandemic. He was castigated for these remarks; xenophobic if I recall correctly. These comments addressed the seriousness of the situation unequivocally.
Second, the Maddow 2017 standard must be used here. According to the Orange One, the seriousness of the situation demands a “whole of government response”. How many times have we heard this? Yet I don’t see it in your quotes? But more importantly, it wasn’t just words. This principle was implemented…with dispatch. You and Lex choose to ignore that simple fact.
Back in school, in a course in power and politics in organizations, the professor advanced the thought that management is little more than symbolic action. Such actions are the most powerful tool in influencing the behavior of diverse audiences. In my lifetime, I’ve rarely seen another President implement such a powerful and consistent response to a crisis; refocusing the entire government in a coordinated fashion to address a single threat. You & Lex seem to dismiss both these actions and this management principle. Seems to me that your position here is very much like the political ad highlighting Kerry on the wind surfing board in 2004; back and forth and back and forth. Political speech using “facts” in isolation, perhaps unfairly, to define the opposition.
I call bs.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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LOL Bob, are you a complete shut in? Do you not have the ability to look at video and newspaper pictures? Millions are not wearing masks NOW. Plus if he wore the mask EARLY it would have helped greatly. And yes the DEPLORABLES and PANDEMIC DOUBTERS might have followed him back in March. Prolonged contact inside buildings without the latest air filtering systems and without ultra violet lights is dangerous. The droplets don’t fall to the ground, they hang in the air. You think he’s a leader, I think he’s a dope, a traitor and someone who gives not a damn about the American people.
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T. C., is your middle name Faucci? Such authoritative statements defining an overly simplistic solution to a virus problem that even now is not well understood.
“Millions are not wearing masks NOW. Plus if he wore the mask EARLY it would have helped greatly.”
You know and I know, the Orange One’s approach has been to empower those closest to the patients to make the decisions. Works for me and many others here abouts. But this fundamental issue is unresolved. How many here have vented about unelected public health officials knee capping the economy? However, if I recall correctly you have defended Trumpo’s decentralization vociferously.
The Feds committed to meeting the needs of the locals; and have largely succeeded. State and local officials were empowered to implement mask policies…just as they could do all manor of stupid stuff. They could export the virus to nursing homes. They could ban boating. They could encourage folks to visit Chinatown for the New Year’s celebration. They could encourage mass protests absent mask requirements. They could shutter businesses and beaches.
Who best discharged their responsibilities? The locals calling the shots or the Feds who handled their requests for infrastructure and material? Simple question T. C. Answer it.
And yes, I have restricted my activities. My choice. It’s a simple thing I can do out of respect for my family, friends and neighbors. And as you know since you asked previously, I generally wear a mask when I’m out…local policy, don’t you know?
And enough of the political speak. You’re self contradictory. Your pronouncement, “I think he’s a dope, a traitor and someone who gives not a damn about the American people.“ Yet you suggest people sharing your views would follow the Orange One eagerly?
Just like 50% of population, you’d ignore anything and everything the Orange One says…unless he follows your script. I on the other hand don’t have any problem addressing these challenges as our founders intended; empowering the states. I don’t think we need expanded, empowered federal bureaucracies. That’s what Biden, Pelosi, AOC & Obama are selling. How did those fools perform for you during the last challenge? Shovel ready jobs? Solyndra? Public policy predicated on deceit? (See Gruber) Cozying up economically to China? Undermining the orderly transition of power? Assuring Vladimir our foreign policy can be more “flexible” post election? MRE’s to Ukrainians seeking to blunt Russian incursions? Red lines in Syria?
With that legacy of success, much like Bush’s I’ll add, I think you’re spot on with your suggestions to put it all on the Feds…and that the Orange One’s failure you wear a mask will be seen as the most important public policy failure during our lifetimes.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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What a horseshit post. The virus can be in aerosol form. Simply wearing a mask helps greatly inside buildings. Trump wearing a mask would bring some doubters into the fold. Simple as that. The whole point of social distancing, masks and isolation is to cut down on the number of humans the virus is seeking to infect. When the candidates run out the virus has nowhere to go. A statement that “99% of infections are harmless” is asinine and ridiculous and shows how running scared this coward is. So now it’s your turn to come back and defend the un-defendable. And he also defends traitors like Lee and Jackson. Time’s up.
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Ahhh T. C., more obfuscation. Lee & Jackson are introduced into the discussion?
“Simply wearing a mask helps greatly inside buildings. Trump wearing a mask would bring some doubters into the fold. Simple as that.”
Some doubters? How many pray tell? And how many Trump haters would purposely follow the opposite path? What’s the net impact my friend? You and I have no way of knowing.
But we both know that we wear masks ourselves when we are at the supermarket or the Apple Store, or the local CVS store. Why? Because of local requirements? Because merchants require it? What is the compliance level in the places you visit? Near 100%…even as the President declines to run behind a mask?
Why in the world would you blame the Orange One for the “mask ignorance” problem you see lurking behind every turn when you see 100% compliance in your own corner of the world? Why indeed? Because you can condemn Trump for failing to “bring some unknown number of doubters into the fold”? Why not go with what is working now for you and me? Have you ever heard the expression, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Let the locals set the rules for the game. Don’t drag the Orange One into Marin County public health policy. You don’t need to. You see local compliance every damn day. Your refusal to go with what works is indeed curious.
And I’ll of course acknowledge that you, the N. Y. Times and 239 scientists are smarter than me! But pardon me if I maintain some skepticism? It’s a natural reaction when I read paragraph 2 of your article.
“If airborne transmission is a significant factor in the pandemic, especially in crowded spaces with poor ventilation, the consequences for containment will be significant.”
T. C., over the last 120 days, we’ve seen a whole lot of misguided public policy that has been predicated on conditional statements by “experts”. How certain are you that your experts have it right this time? And further, if I stipulate to their current conjecture, I still have the same fundamental question; why shouldn’t the locals mandate mask usage indoors? That’s simpler and more effective than seeing the Orange One in a mask, no?
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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There is not a single documented case of the virus being transmitted through an HVAC system. The WHO, the CDC, Johns Hopkins have all stated that HVAC is not a cause for concern regarding spreading the virus. ASHRAE has gone on record, saying it’s unlikely, though not impossible. UVC, HEPA filters and 100% outside air are kinda like prayer, what’s the harm. . . .
Transmission, though, is much more likely due to the airflows between people with in a building. A fan blowing air from an infected person to a well person for an extended period of time will probably infect the well person.
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Take a look at at the report of 239 professionals who think that WHO is incorrect. They are advocating the latest filters and UV lights be installed in all buildings. That would prop up a part of Mick’s ruined world economy. Article in Sunday’s Chronicle and this morning on NPR Morning Edition. I would link but I have as much ability to link articles as I do hitting a DeChambeau Drive.
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I didn’t claim that the WHO and CDC were correct. I clearly believe that Covid can be aerosol. I don’t think that it will be transmitted through ducted HVAC systems, though, at least not easily. That said, I don’t think UVC is a bad idea, better filtration or more outside are will required total system overhauls to account for the increased pressure drops and/or the extra capacity required to condition outside air.
And yes, there will be a ton of money thrown at the solutions for offices, etc. And I’m looking at taking advantage of that.
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[quote quote=1086]the whole damn thing comes down to hospital availability, not the number of cases. I just watch hospital availability and when Texas suspends elective surgeries…the writing is on the wall.[/quote]
correctomundo RM. Or Georgia or Florida. one of the sites I follow tracks exactly that and Texas hospitalizations have some room to go.
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[quote quote=1106]Take a look at at the report of 239 professionals who think that WHO is incorrect.[/quote]
T.C., am I reading this correctly? Your 239 professionals are in agreement with the Orange One’s assessment of The WHO’s performance in matters Covid-19? 90 days after the Orange One.
Better late than never I guess. 😉
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
Read the English. Trump has said nothing about aerosol particulars. Unlucky for Trump in that he doesn’t have Gerry Ford to pardon him. Going to look pathetic in an orange prison jumpsuit. LOCK HIM UP. LOL.
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“Trump has said nothing about aerosol particulars.”
Yes T.C., I too long for the good old days of Jimmy Carter. He had a real gift for getting lost in the details. You know, “can’t see the forest for the trees”?
Do you think perhaps we’re well served by a manager who makes high level resource commitment decisions, engages with responsible parties to identify and address major pain points and trusts the experts to provide reliable input in developing a coherent plan of attack?
Problem is, such a manager might be frustrated by “experts” who don’t know their ass from second base? You of course are all over this conundrum! You’ve called out the divergence between the WHO and your 239 scientists? The UW modeling of the expected deaths attributable to the pandemic? They’ve been all over the map and we haven’t even reached their forecast date of August 1! No worries though, I’m certain you and I are in complete agreement… their July 31 update will spot on! The importance of ventilators in treating patients infected by the virus? The peak demand for ICU beds? The efficacy of hydroxychloriquine? Whether the virus can be transmitted through human contact? Whether travel bans are important and timely or perhaps xenophobic?
You rightly have been all over this basic management problem. You thankfully have shown real empathy to the Orange One. Early on you appreciated that he has to deal with these know nothing “experts” who unaccountably chirp daily in the media causing confusion, fear and second guessing in the population.
Thank God for cool headed, process focused intellects like you. Only guys like you can comment meaningfully on the management chops of the Orange One. That’s why I can’t wait for your next post T.C.
{And to insure there is no misunderstanding, I refer to the generic “you” T.C. It’s simply a generalized usage that refers more broadly to the media and the politicians.
}Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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