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Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years
“Cumulative inflation since 2019 has been understated by nearly half. This has resulted in cumulative growth being overstated by roughly 15%. This is a large amount for just 5 years – peak-to-trough drop in real GDP during the 2008 crisis was 4%.”
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1861924021282988518
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1861858357440651714
And inflation seems to be following the Carter – Reagan transition model.
https://x.com/CGasparino/status/1859617665922330990
I was wondering what was happening with money market funds (usual holders of short term securities).
https://x.com/ArchRose90/status/1858858897991188730
Glad to know that the BBC’s journalists have the same argument skills as ours. I enjoy “Clarkson’s Farm,” which is an indictment on all the regulations on growing food and trying to make a living in agriculture.
https://x.com/Emma_A_Webb/status/1858212410017939581
When the government spends 3x tax revenue, no amount of taxation will be sufficient. Fostering government dependence has created an all or nothing political environment, which leads to polarization. The founding fathers recognized how dangerous concentrating power was, and explicitly instituted checks and balances.
https://x.com/LokiJulianus/status/1858411726670106963
Inheritance taxes on large estates are fine, but if the intent is to seize land for redistribution, I don’t think it is good policy. Also, to the extent motivation to leave money / property for the next generation is necessary to keep civilization going, let’s encourage that….
Oooo. Something that I sort of know about. I’m not Korean, but I have been following a pair of scandals that lead to the 4B movement. Oh, trigger warning. These scandals and sextortion explainers contain really disturbing descriptions (no graphic content, the host just describes what happens).
This involved a sex-trafficking and drugging ring.
This scandal involves drugging and filming porn, including underage girls. The images and videos were then traded on Telegram.
There are a few issues going on. First, widespread access to pornography has eroded male social skills / expectations in an otherwise conservative culture. Second, beauty expectations and plastic surgery, coupled with a culture that literally calls K-pop stars and K-drama stars “idols” has created unrealistic standards among the young. Third, their criminal justice / civil justice system allows for the rich and powerful to largely escape accountability.
Yes, there’s a major power imbalance among the genders / patriarchal preference in South Korean culture. But it’s the first and third factors that are driving the feminist revolt. It’s not quite the stakes from the Lysistrata, but South Korea needs to start enforcing its laws and putting offenders in prison. Of course, compared to women in the United States, the grievances of South Korean women are much more severe and worthy of a movement. We’ll see how effective it is.
https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/1857085090595000759
It’s 1982 all over again?
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1857232594334519595
Super nerdy, but pulling liquidity will create bank runs.
https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/1857110313729986980
Mortgage rates are going up even after the Fed cuts. Why? Because people aren’t buying bonds. There’s significant default risk, and the Asian economies are looking for more stable assets (and moving away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency). Discounted bonds mean increased interest rates. If you have X, the thread also discussed the lower labor participation rate, something I have posted about before.
https://x.com/porterstansb/status/1857057210498453855
Yes. But also the expected result of government deficit spending / money printing. So Trump will be inheriting a double whammy of inflation caused by lower interest rates (an error in traditional Fed governance theory) and increased spending. In addition, I don’t trust the BLS / official government statistics, so the jobs numbers and consumer debt numbers may not be accurate. My guess is that we may be in for a Paul Voelker like interest rate shock to bring prices under control.
Keep in mind that Biden drained and did not refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so an oil shock can be mitigated by more US production, but the US could be vulnerable to a short term shock in energy prices as well.
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1857068509261357530 and now revisions to inflation related numbers. Going to be a bumpy economic ride.
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1856778628417126841h
ttps://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1856814001784521106
Deficit for FY24 came in at $1.8T.
At 34% of GDP, cuts to government spending will necessarily be painful.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp
Incredible that government spending as a percent of GDP remained over 43 for FY21.
