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I’ve now read two Democratic pollster consultants/media consultants state that the polls are misleading, and that if the 2024 polling experience is similar to 2016, Trump actually has the lead.
Harris has a putative 1.6% lead. At this time in 2016, Trump trailed HRC by six points, and trailed Biden in 2020 by 7.1 points in the polls at a similar time.
History shows Trump could be in the lead right now, Dem strategist says | Fox News
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270 to win remains unchanged, 77 electoral votes essentially up for grabs. Only change over last week, on August 23 they relaunched the 538 model added back to consensus. Oregon moves from Likely to Safe Democratic; South Carolina Safe to Likely Republican.
2024 Presidential Election Consensus Forecast – 270toWin
On Feb 3, 2021, Harris had a net positive +7.9 rating. Over the next three years, it culminated in a net -16.5 negative rating, greater than a 25-point reversal. Today, same poll, it has fallen to -1.9.
Why?
Great marketing, she hasn’t spoken in public, hasn’t talked to reporters, artsy Time cover, endorsements by all Dems and a hundred formerly influential traditional Republicans, Obama-esque poster (that didn’t take), and a toadying, obsequious media that has found a new low in their loathing of Trump and their collective intent to elect not-Trump.
Everyone remembers her word salad, nonsensical responses. Her few publicized political positions either (a) parrot Trump or (b) are borderline frightening and economically nonsensical.
Summarized, KH has a 3.5-point poll advantage over Trump today on 538. The same poll summary at the same time in 2016 had Hillary with a 6 point advantage over Trump. In other words…I still think this is Trump’s election to lose.
President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
My take is that KH will have to try her own version of Biden’s basement strategy until Election Day.
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