Gallup Presidential Poll Bottom Line

[Mick1]

Gallup is a traditional, high-quality, profoundly respected polling organization that is nearly a century old. They are the favorite of Fortune 1000 clients, governments and national organizations. They are less prone to bias than almost any other pollsters.

Here’s an interesting poll that seems intuitively correct to me: For the last 20 American presidential elections straight, every single presidential election since WWII, whichever party is seen as the leading party on the one or two most important election issues…that is the party that wins the White House.

In 2024, the most important issues to the voting public are the economy and immigration. And American voters say that Republicans are better able to address those issues than Democrats by a 46% to 41% margin.

2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP

Gallup also notes that Republicans are favored in 8 of the 10 most important Key Measures of the 2024 Presidential Election Environment (the other two are a tie).

Gallup also notes that in Q3 2024, 48% of Americans either identified with or leaned toward the Republican party versus 45% of those who identify with or lean toward the Democratic party. Incidentally, this is the first time in over 30 years that a majority lean/identify with Republicans (they were tied in 2004).

U. S. Economic Confidence is now -28 (not good for Dems).

Satisfaction with Direction of U. S. is now 22% (not good for Dems).

Biden’s approval rating is 39%, typically the reelection threshold is 48%. Trump lost when he was at 46%.

Percentage who feel the government is doing too much (versus should do more) is 55% to 41%.

Final Gallup quote, titled “Bottom Line”: “The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose. Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren’t are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage.”

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[Mick1]

Biden’s presidential approval rating is the second lowest of all post-WWII presidents. The only one lower was Trump’s, which was in the middle of a COVID pandemic and societal shutdown.

Biden Job Approval Second Lowest Among Post-WWII Presidents

Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center

Presidential Job Approval Center

 

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