- This topic has 15 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
-
As of today, here is the percentage of registered voters by party in California:
- Democrats, 45.27%
- Republicans, 25.22%
- Independents, 22.34%
- Minor parties, 7.17%
There are 52 seats allocated to California in the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. Here is the distribution by party:
- Democrats, 43 seats, 82.7%
- Republicans, 9 seats, 17.3%
As you know, that paragon of political virtue, Governor Newsom thinks that having nearly twice as much political representation by his party in Congress isn’t enough. Now he wants more, and he wants to do it away from the independent districting commission in California.
And his attorney general, Rob Bonta, says there is a legal path to do so through a special election:
California attorney general says ‘legal pathway’ exists to redraw congressional maps
In 2008, voters took the power away from California lawmakers to create an independent, citizen-led redistricting commission to avoid what Newsom wants to do. Governor Hochul (D-NY) says “all’s fair in love and war.”
Instead of calling out Newsom on his perfidy, the San Francisco Chronicle warns that he has a tight timeline with roadblocks. Of course.
Newsom faces a tight timeline to redistrict California. Here are the roadblocks
-
And now Newsom says he is going forward with this. Dems already have 82.7% of CA’s congressional delegation with 45% of the registered voters.
Newsom: California will redraw maps after ‘missed’ Trump deadline
-
It’s not really shenanigans in California, as implied. The independent redistricting commission draws compact districts based on geography and communities of interest, not party quotas. Democrats aren’t crammed into a few cities; they’re spread across most metro and suburban areas, winning many districts by comfortable margins. Republicans are concentrated in fewer rural and inland districts, which limits their seat count.
Independents lean strongly Democratic in federal races, usually by about two to one. With Democrats at 45 percent of registered voters, Republicans at 25 percent, and independents at 22 percent, the math works out to roughly 58 percent Democratic and 32 percent Republican in congressional votes. That advantage lets Democrats win most districts even without gerrymandering.
California’s 43 to 9 split in seats reflects these patterns, not manipulation. The commission’s maps may give Democrats a small natural edge due to voter geography, but it’s far less than the distortions seen in states where politicians draw the lines.
NO MALARKEY
-
Two thoughts.
First, 38% of all Americans identify as politically independent, compared with 22% in California. I rather suspect that if you lean Democrat, you are registered as a Democrat. Too many benefits accrue to Democrats. I suspect that a higher percentage of California Independents are like me: former Republican who leans Republican, though I vote left depending on the issue.
Why? Because if you’re anywhere near an urban region in this state, it’s dangerous to be a Republican in this state, and you know it. You get canceled, you get outed, you lose your job.
Second, your 2:1 ratio is incorrect. It’s 17:13.
6 facts about U.S. political independents | Pew Research Center
-
Multiple statewide surveys, including the Public Policy Institute of California’s (PPIC) recurring voter polls, show that NPP voters in California lean Democratic by a clear margin in federal races. In PPIC’s July 2024 survey, 54% of NPP voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate for U.S. House, 33% for the Republican, and the rest undecided or for other parties. Not quite 2 to 1, but close enough.
On the “17:13” figure you’re referencing from Pew — that’s a national split of independents leanings, not California-specific. California’s electorate is significantly different from the national average. In a solidly blue state, independents here tilt more Democratic than independents nationwide. Voting data from recent elections, which reflects actual ballots cast, shows that California NPP voters break toward Democrats. So while your national figure is probably accurate, it doesn’t reflect how California independents actually vote in congressional elections.
NO MALARKEY
-
Here’s a poll for you: A majority of California voters support the state’s independent commission rather than allowing lawmakers to draw congressional boundaries.
Newsom faces uphill climb in California redistricting push, polling shows – POLITICO
Sixty-four percent of California voters support keeping the commission, while only 36 percent support returning redistricting authority to the state legislature, according to the poll. It surveyed 1,445 registered voters from July 28 to August 12.
-
I think Newsom’s just trying to scare Trump.
Gov. Newsom is launching a campaign to garner support for a special election on redistricting
-
-
California is trying to do it in response to Texas. If you are following this, Newsom made it quite clear he didn’t want to do this and wouldn’t unless Texas lubed up and bent over for Trump after he demanded it. But Texas released their map, so Newsom is following suit.
Democrats don’t want gerrymandering. They have set up independent councils and have tried to take the high road. Certainly far more than Republicans. There have been several Congressional votes recently where Democrats tried to get rid of gerrymandering. But of course Republicans voted these down on 100% party lines. Some recent history:
Congress considered several bills to eliminate partisan gerrymandering. The only ones that reached a vote were the For the People Act in 2019 and again in 2021. Both times, the House passed the bill almost entirely along party lines: in 2019, Democrats voted 234 to 0 in favor while Republicans voted 193 to 0 against, and in 2021, Democrats voted 220 to 0 in favor while Republicans voted 210 to 0 against. When the Senate took up the measure in 2021, it failed on a 50/50 split, with every Democrat voting yes and every Republican voting no.
Other bills addressing gerrymandering, such as the Freedom to Vote Act, the Open Our Democracy Act, and the Fair Representation Act, were introduced but never advanced to floor votes. I’m sure you can guess: these were killed in committee or filibuster by Republicans.
if you listen to Newsom or any other Democrat pushing for this now in California, they have made it quite clear they don’t want to do this, but don’t want to unilaterally surrender to Republicans who have no qualms about it. They have said they would support a ban on gerrymandering if Republicans would agree (not holding my breath). But in the meantime they need to fight fire with fire.
I don’t know if it will work out for Newsom or other Democrats. But when you see Republicans clutching their pearls over what Newsom is doing, please understand it’s just crocodile tears.
NO MALARKEY
-
Yes, the vote was split on party lines, but there were genuine issue-based objections.
-Federal control vs. state control of elections
-Use of taxpayer money for campaigns
-Constitutionality of some ethics provisionsSome Democrats along with Republicans raised concerns about scope and partisanship.
There were parts of the bill that had bi-partisan support, but dems tossed in same day registration, restoration of convicted felon voting rights, required presidential and VP candidates to disclose 10 years of tax returns. Basically tossed a hand grenade into a bill that could have passed on its own.
-
https://x.com/ZavalaA/status/1957971990456799446
Huh.
https://x.com/ZavalaA/status/1957945036676767967
I mean, I thought the question was clear, and a concept, “transparency” does not draw up maps.
https://x.com/ZavalaA/status/1957941015198986480
Yes, but if something is going to be shoved down our throats, or if someone is poisoned, we would generally like to know who is responsible.
Weird that they won’t just come out and say that a Democratic elections consultant, whose wife testified in favor of the map, and who was ranked number five in the most powerful couples in California, drew the map.
-
As of today, here is the percentage of registered voters by party in California:
- Democrats, 45.27%
- Republicans, 25.22%
- Independents, 22.34%
- Minor parties, 7.17%
There are 52 seats allocated to California in the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. Here is the distribution by party:
- Democrats, 43 seats, 82.7%
- Republicans, 9 seats, 17.3%
As you know, that paragon of political virtue, Governor Newsom thinks that having nearly twice as much political representation by his party in Congress isn’t enough. Now he wants more, and he wants to do it away from the independent districting commission in California. And his attorney general, Rob Bonta, says there is a legal path to do so through a special election: California attorney general says ‘legal pathway’ exists to redraw congressional maps In 2008, voters took the power away from California lawmakers to create an independent, citizen-led redistricting commission to avoid what Newsom wants to do. Governor Hochul (D-NY) says “all’s fair in love and war.” Instead of calling out Newsom on his perfidy, the San Francisco Chronicle warns that he has a tight timeline with roadblocks. Of course. Newsom faces a tight timeline to redistrict California. Here are the roadblocks
I was at a wedding this weekend in Santa Barbara. My college roommate (godfather to my son and vice versa) has a son who married into a Pacific Palisades family of recently-former Democrats.
Yes, there are still a lot of Democrats in this state, and Democrat-leaning independents. But watching two cities burn down and watching the Democrats do literally everything they can to prevent rebuilding Pacific Palisades is simply…extraordinary. That goes for demanding low-income housing to be built in PP, to a mandated foundational rise of 3-4 feet on the presumption that PP is a flood zone (I don’t think too much water is PP’s problem) to demanding new environmental impact reports and more.
Pacific Palisades will be like La Haina. The fire was more than two years ago, on August 8, 2023. 2,000+ homes were destroyed (3% of all Maui’s houses). By early 2025, only two homes had been rebuilt, with a third home outside of LaHaina destroyed by the fire. As of August 8, 2025, exactly two years after the fire, only 45 houses had been rebuilt, so just over 2% of all destroyed homes.
The Democrats have had an extraordinarily bad impact on this state. When will the Independents understand how they’ve dragged us down?
-
https://x.com/MarkMeuser/status/1963695709426974861
I’ll pull out the relevant thread posts below, but long story short, the Biden DOJ sued Texas re: majority minority districts, and lost. The Fifth Circuit found the current map unconstitutional, and an en banc court agreed.
https://x.com/MarkMeuser/status/1963695730960498914
If anything, existing districts were unconstitutional racial gerrymanders.
https://x.com/MarkMeuser/status/1963695738824831242
Texas law requires redrawing of maps if they are found unconstitutional. Hence why Texas is doing it now. Yes, Trump did ask them to do it, but Texas is required to do it by the courts and their laws.
-
I would pass a law that says states can only district by “boxes ” comprised of 2 latitudes and 2 longitudes. The box has to contain the population for one seat in Congress.
No frills.
would it be better? I don’t know, but I do know it would largely remove the gerrymander power.
____________________________________________________________
Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
Iowa ought to be a model for the entire country. Congressional districts are drawn following county lines.
-
Interesting poll on Proposition 50. Basically, 60% want independent commission drawing districts. From the polling memo:
Voters Trust the Commission, Not the Politicians
• Six-in-ten voters support using an independent commission to draw the congressional district maps (61% support, 20% oppose) with 42% saying they strongly support the independent commission.
• A plurality of Republicans (43-32%) and three quarters of Democrats (74-11%) and more than half of Independent voters (58-26%) support the independent commission.
• 49% oppose authorizing the state legislature to draw the congressional district maps (40% support).
• When contextualized as an effort by Governor Newsom in response to Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas, Newsom’s proposal reaches 52% support.
• Testing the Proposition 50 language, we find support at 54% Yes and 29% No, while 17% are undecided.
• 15% of voters who oppose Newsom’s contextualized efforts mistakenly vote Yes on Proposition 50, highlighting voter confusion related to the ballot language.
-
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.