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Looks like the Fed is set to increase interest rates by 75 basis points to 3.25%, the highest rate in 14 years.
Fed Set to Reveal ‘Pain’ Coming in Next Stage of Inflation Fight (yahoo.com)
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They should just bump by 100 bps and get us moving back toward normalcy.
Oh, and they should rapidly shrink the fed balance sheet too.
The first one is more likely than the second.
You want inflation to cease? Take money out of the system. Oh, that will affect employment and housing? It’s only the chickens coming home to roost after trillions in stimulus to keep employment and housing intact.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
I can’t remember a cycle where monetary and fiscal policy were so conflicted…and I expect the money guys will win in the end…after all irresponsible politicians need someone to blame.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
I woke up an hour ago saw the pre market red on the CNBC screens and lowered all my already below support lowball bids. Exon seems to be breaking. Try for 73?
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As I said in one of my books. “They slide faster than they glide.”
I sold out some time ago. Will do a little selected buying today, but I would like to see some serious fear in the market before adding much.
A VIX spike to between 35 and 40 would send a signal. But there are a lot of serious issues out there.
We shall see…
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For your consideration ichiban…on a day oil falls 5%. Week ending September 16, the balance in the SPR has declined to 423 mil barrels. We are approaching the administration’s objective of 180 mil barrels. Global demand remains at 100 mil barrels/day.
Industry’s domestic investment is targeting lower cost short tail sources, largely shale. US production is likely to fall over the course of the next two to four years.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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So not only did the Fed increase rates 75 basis points, they signalled that there will likely be another 75 basis point increase and a 50 basis point increase in the next two sessions.
Every variable rate loan (mortgages, credit cards, auto financing) just got a lot more expensive. Real estate will likely hit a hard ceiling, and I suspect will drop substantially in certain areas that experienced big runups.
Going to be a tough next six months…to a year. Or two…
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Every variable rate loan (mortgages, credit cards, auto financing) just got a lot more expensive. Real estate will likely hit a hard ceiling, and I suspect will drop substantially in certain areas that experienced big runups. Going to be a tough next six months…to a year. Or two…
US Home Prices Now Posting Biggest Monthly Drops Since 2009 (yahoo.com)
San Jose and San Francisco housing markets are leading the decline with 13% and 11% drops in residential real estate values.
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My first buy for XOM was at 69 in January 2020 couple months before brave new world of covid. When price of oil went below zero I thought they was going cut the div. I gotta kick myself I didn’t buy at 31. But added more in the 50s so at least I’m ahead. I need to book some cap gains to compensate for a busted trade so hope to sell in the 90s later this year.
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public confessions of doubt by Jay Powell don’t help the nation’s confidence:
Fed unsure of economy’s direction as Wall Street meltdown worsens (msn.com)
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This is remarkable to me. As you read Powell’s uncertainty about the economy, compare and contrast with our first black, female, lesbian press secretary and Biden himself.
The Whitehouse is certain we’re enjoying the best economy in our lifetimes. They should fire Powell and nominate Jean Pierre to lead the FED. She’d hit the ground running with that really smart binder of hers.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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