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…and then I’ll shut up about it.
DHS/Pew/SSA estimated 8.6 million undocumented aliens in the USA in 2000, rising to 12.2 million in 2007, then falling to 10.5 in 2017 where it stayed flat until 2021. So GHWBush let in nearly 4 million net undocumented in his 8 years, then between Obama and Trump 1, a net 1.7 million were deported. And the number of net new undocumented rose 3.7 million under Biden to 14.6 million, falling to 14.2 million under Trump II.
Again, these are only official numbers based upon border crossers caught versus those deported combined with those turned away at the border.
For decades, the official number claimed by the government was 11.3 million. Three Yale researchers disagreed. In 2018, two Yale professors (Edward Kaplan Prof of Operations Research and Jonathan Feinstein Prof of Economics and Management, both in Yale’s Graduate School of Management and Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi, senior lecturer at MIT Sloan School of Management, formerly with Yale’s School of Management) created a study that wasn’t based upon net border crossings, but upon operationsThey felt that 11.3 million was much too high, and they created a study designed to micro-examine economic and operational factors not captured by standard statistics. Their expectation was that the number would be much lower than 11.3 million, even capturing immigrants who eluded border control.
Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates | Yale Insights
Instead, they found that the likely number to be much higher, 22.1 million. Even using very conservative parameters, they claimed that the bare minimum was closer to 16.7 million, and could be 29 million. After running 1,000,000 simulations of their model, they concluded that there was a 95% probability that the number of undocumented aliens was between 16 million and 29 million with 22.1 million as the mean.
They caught an inordinate amount of grief. No one wanted to hear that.
So three years later in 2021, Kaplan repeated his study which factored into account the Mexican Migration Project which used annual Mexican data since 1987 and came up with 19.6 million undocumented, which is consistent with the fact that this is after four years of Trump’s first presidency.
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