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I think/hope Trafalgar is the gold standard. Two down nationally means Orange wins.
Although I was sorry to see Biden in Florida today. Rocky, I thought with you in the state it was Orange all the way. What the hell is going on down there?
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
[quote quote=2927]The NBC Poll that had Trump down 14 had 15% more Dems than R’s in its 800 person sample. [/quote]
If that’s true, then how do they get away with it? Is that simply a result of so-called oversampling and scaling to ensure minority representation? Seems like research malpractice to me.
Just for math’s sake, if the electorate is 40% R/D and 20% independent, then that would have meant that the sample was somewhere around 37/43 in favor of dems. Now, that doesn’t explain a 14 percent difference between Trump and Biden, but it is a huge swing toward dems when you look at it.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
Sorry to burst anyone`s bubble but sometimes we all miss certain things that have been in our face forever. I myself only discovered a few years ago after 40 some odd years of political involvement that over 80% of all traditional polls have built in Dem oversampling. It has always been that way and I can only assume it is because a certain result is the desired outcome. Even Fox is guilty of it. Especially Fox for whatever reason. Learn to read the polling fine print for each poll. It took me forever to realize what was happening. Have you ever seen a poll that under sampled Democrats vs. the final outcome? I cannot remember one.
With regard to Florida, I can only tell you that Trump support among Hispanics and blacks is much higher than in 2016. If Trump were to lose Florida, it would be because he loses white support. In addition, the two corrupt election officials that ran Dade and Broward counties, the two big Dem dominated counties in S. Florida that include Miami and vicinity have been removed and replaced by our governor so I do not expect any more voting hanky panky as we have had in the past. My county St. Johns is the most Republican in the state. I can only tell you anecdotally that I see 20 Trump/Pence signs for every Biden/Harris sign anywhere and everywhere I go in this county. A few weeks ago my wife and I spent a few days at a great B&B in Nassau county (Fernandina, Amelia Island) and we saw dozens of Trump signs and only one Biden sign in 48 hours. FWIW, we were the only occupants of this great 11 bedroom/10 bath Victorian B and B midweek and will go back again. Fantastic place. We stayed in the Princess Amelia room.
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I think the Dems are gaming a future loss. They want to exaggerate the polls as much as possible, ostensibly to improve Dem turnout, but also to provide evidence for being “mistreated” in the event that Biden loses. it’s why CNN publicizes that Joe Biden is 16 points ahead:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html
Fascism is coming. And I don’t doubt it, I just think that it’s coming from the left.
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Fascism = socialism with a dash of open markets which are centrally managed.
I’m not sure if I have my terminology right but Big Government is evil as we have seen the last 4 or more years. It’s sleazy little brother is leftism. Maybe west coast leftism and academic leftism are more accurate. Our leftism also has a weird ally with Big Business. Tarp, Obamacare, Bailouts galore. For the moment.
Whatever you want to call it, brain dead rejection of basic economics and a hardline anti- market approach get’s you Venezuela. So I prefer “the road to serfdom” to Fascism.
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