- This topic has 9 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 5 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
-
Pretty amazing detail. One cargo vessel shows the fragility of the system.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.3/centery:22.4/zoom:3
-
Well, to be fair, it’s one massive cargo vessel and also a colossal screw up at one of the key choke points in the whole system.
Kinda like saying that one cog can break the whole clock, which is not really all that surprising.
The fragility of most systems is not in the unknown risks, it’s in the lack of contingencies around the known risks. Closure of the Suez has been a known risk for at least 40 or 50 years due to Middle East politics. If your supply chain doesn’t take that risk into account, then you will pay the price when it closes. I’m not saying it’s prudent to hold inventory against such a risk, I’m just saying that if you don’t you are underwriting the risk in some other way.
____________________________________________________________
Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
Managing risk is a fascinating area. As you say it was not an unknown risk yet it happened. It is possible to profit from consequential rare events. (Corona virus, volcanos, flash wars). One look at that map which you could say is a technological advantage against such occurrences, yet it didn’t prevent the obvious. Why? We’ll go back to pseudo order soon but the risks will increase.
Maybe top down structured systems make these kinds of events more likely. I’m surprised we went this long.
-
Risk management is a lost art for individuals but a must have for companies of any size. Freight carriers usually are on the frontlines of risk management, and I suspect that the freight carriers won’t get pinned down by this one. Where supply chain shocks like this hurt is when companies and governments choose to run supply chains “lean” because they can. Too lean equals too risky.
Why is it a lost art for individuals? Because we have cultivated a culture of blame and bankruptcy where people feel comfortable taking outrageous personal financial risks (like buying cars that cost more than a year’s wages) because other people do it.
____________________________________________________________
Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
-
Just the other day, my 14 year old daughter and I were laughing at a $227k Lamborghini SUV. Just the idea of one is ridiculous at best, and at that price tag, ludicrous at worst.
Wonder how she’d feel about a $12 million+ Rolls Royce Sweptail:
https://www.motor1.com/news/146815/rolls-royce-sweptail-expensive-ever/
-
[quote quote=4551]Risk management is a lost art for individuals but a must have for companies of any size. Freight carriers usually are on the frontlines of risk management, and I suspect that the freight carriers won’t get pinned down by this one. Where supply chain shocks like this hurt is when companies and governments choose to run supply chains “lean” because they can. Too lean equals too risky…….
Got me thinking about energy risk management by governments. We achieved energy independence during the Trump administration. It was an easy formula. Fracking. Nat gas. Drill more. Keystone on deck. It was within reach all along.
Now the Biden central planners have unwound the independence and increased the risk. They must know but apparently don’t care. We had low cost abundant energy and pissed it all away.
-
At least it’s not masquerading as an SUV. Cool looking car from the back, though I’d imagine the blind spots would be terrible.
[quote quote=4555][quote quote=4551]Risk management is a lost art for individuals but a must have for companies of any size. Freight carriers usually are on the frontlines of risk management, and I suspect that the freight carriers won’t get pinned down by this one. Where supply chain shocks like this hurt is when companies and governments choose to run supply chains “lean” because they can. Too lean equals too risky……. Got me thinking about energy risk management by governments. We achieved energy independence during the Trump administration. It was an easy formula. Fracking. Nat gas. Drill more. Keystone on deck. It was within reach all along. Now the Biden central planners have unwound the independence and increased the risk. They must know but apparently don’t care. We had low cost abundant energy and pissed it all away.[/quote]
-
-
[quote quote=4555][quote quote=4551]Risk management is a lost art for individuals but a must have for companies of any size. Freight carriers usually are on the frontlines of risk management, and I suspect that the freight carriers won’t get pinned down by this one. Where supply chain shocks like this hurt is when companies and governments choose to run supply chains “lean” because they can. Too lean equals too risky……. Got me thinking about energy risk management by governments. We achieved energy independence during the Trump administration. It was an easy formula. Fracking. Nat gas. Drill more. Keystone on deck. It was within reach all along. Now the Biden central planners have unwound the independence and increased the risk. They must know but apparently don’t care. We had low cost abundant energy and pissed it all away.[/quote]
And gas prices are up 30%. Go figure.
-
[quote quote=4547]Pretty amazing detail. One cargo vessel shows the fragility of the system. https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.3/centery:22.4/zoom:3[/quote]
We’ve seen fragility in many different areas during the last 12 months. Power systems not up to the task, Solar Winds hack, the failure of our health care system to deal with a disease infecting less than 10% of our population. Our “leaders” have been exposed as empty suits, capable only of spending money, issuing mandates and grabbing lunch at The French Laundry.
The next virus from CCP will target internet communication and Financial markets. The US economy will be in ruins, and feckless leadership will be unable to do a thing. We are cursed with bureaucrats who couldn’t make trains run on time if they wanted to.
China wins WWIII and never fires a shot.
-
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.