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Worth a read…………………….
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/
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In Michigan in the early mail in vote……………………….Trump is winning. In other battleground states, it is very close.
Wherever he is, I hope Muggs has a tough night sleeping this evening.
The reason for the turn……………………polls are confirming that voters have many reasons cited for voting for Trump. The OVERWHELMING reason Dems and voters give for voting for Biden is that they are voting against Trump.
The truth is that Biden/Harris is a generic Dem candidacy. One could put no name on the ballot where the Dem space is and just put DEMOCRAT instead and the vote tally would be the same.
That is why Trump will win. That is why Trump attracts 25,000 per outing and Biden attracts 12.
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Fascinating stuff. Thanks for posting Rocky. As someone who isn’t so confident in Trump’s ability to win, I also appreciate that there are a lot of closeted Trump voters. You literally don’t have a Trump conversation among Stanford groups of more than a couple people. It triggers emotions that are simply juvenile.
This quote:
“Another factor, is that “conservatives are less likely to participate in polls in general,” he says. “We see a five-to-one refusal rate among conservatives.” That means “you’ve got to work very hard to get a fair representation of conservatives, when you do any kind of a survey.””
And this quote:
“”One problem with weighting is that Republicans “who don’t like Trump can’t wait to answer a poll,” he says. “So immediately, within the 22 percent, they’ve probably overrepresented it, the anti-Trump Republicans, the Never Trumper types. Well, when you weight that up from 22 to 35, now you have skewed an already bad representation sample. So that’s kind of inherently how they can be so off.”
Those tell the story of how polls can be so totally off. I’m hopeful they are right. Having done some market surveying, I can tell you that people who do the research really focus on completed surveys of a type, and not the underlying motivations of the survey taker…so in this environment, getting a “Republican complete” is a huge success, and it comes with the likelihood that the only reason that Republican took the poll is because he hates Trump.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
One noted national pundit today stated that the Trafalgar group had one big reservation I should note and note with great alarm. The polling group`s head guy stated he is sure that Trump will win Pennsylvania by 1-3 percent but that there is enough ballot mailing irregularity that the victory could be overcome by fraud.
It is also important to note that polls are beginning to reflect the fact that voters have mounting concerns about Biden because the campaign has not denied the laptop was Hunter’s, only that Biden Sr. never took a meeting with Burisma’s guy. Schiff has only stated what was on the laptop was Russian disinformation. It is important to note that Ratcliffe of DNI has stated Schiff is lying, that the FBI has the laptop and there is no Russian disinformation on it, that no one from any intelligence agency has discussed this with Schiff or any other legislator.
It is also important to note that some recipients of emails on the computer have confirmed the accuracy of the correspondence, that there is a witness in the computer store owner and the FBI is in a position at some point to give an opinion on the entire hard drive and its contents. I contend the Biden campaign is between a rock and a hard place and will walk a very high tightrope between now and the election with the help of the media and hope it does not fall off the rope.
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Rocky, my guess is Orange likes his chances!
He’s enjoying this more than “Lock her up!”
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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1: Everyone knows the emails and computer are the real deal.
2: Everyone knows if the MSM and social media allow coverage, Biden will be clobbered.
3: Biden knows it also and is hiding until the debate and will probably hide post debate. No interviews, no town halls, no appearances unless he can control the environment 100%.
4: Every conservative pro Trump radio show, television show, pundit and proponent will hit the Biden corruption thing 100% of the time everywhere in appearances and campaign ads because it is a true story and everyone knows it.
5: As was Clinton and the foundation, Biden`s family is totally corrupt. Hunter is totally stupid and careless and did what Chelsea and Bill would never have done with his computer and other acts. His actions laid bare the facade of innocence.
Anything can happen but Trump is on O, Biden on D and the momentum is with Trump for the rest of the campaign, especially since the early mail in avalanche has surprised everyone as ballots are not greatly in the Dems favor numerically, GOP voter registration and boots on the ground have dwarfed Dem numbers and Trump has recovered amazingly well from Covid.
My guess is that the Dems are trying to concoct another Trump “scandal” from whole cloth to take the onus off Biden. They do have a money advantage. The real question that could have enormous impact is whether the FBI, DOJ or other legal entity like Durham have anything of consequence to reveal before the election.
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If the maven from Trafalgar is correct, this contest comes down to enthusiasm/motivation vs. preference. # 4 on your list Rocky seems to be the key along with the communications channel employed by the candidates.
I see every Biden talking head wrongly suggesting that Orange has to change his message if he’s to have any chance of winning this election. The chorus sings the common song declaring that Orange has no plan! Uniformly they suggest Orange should leave Biden criticism out of the stump speech, leave the media bashing out and talk about your plan for the next four years. And then they put their money behind an expensive and less effective channel. My gut suggests you get a lot more “juice” from an event with 20,000+ true believers than you do from a repetitive tv spot. Particularly if you’re focused on building enthusiasm. In this case, with these objectives, the lower cost channel may well be best…and Biden doesn’t have the stamina to use the channel. He can’t do three rallies a day. About the third time the Biden tv commercial plays, so what? Is anyone excited…no I think not. So Biden is playing to 20 cars with honking horns when he leaves the bunker every other day and running expensive tv spots. Good luck with that Joe.
I’m hoping January will bring us another democratic retreat focused on what went wrong? How did we get our asses kicked…again? This Trump fellow may be a better politician than the professionals think. He’s not winning on personality.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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Even Rush Limbaugh today stated that Trump was ridiculously stupid and listened to really bad advice for the 1st debate. His advisors thought he could rattle Biden with interruptions but Trump came off looking immature and not very Presidential. What he has to do now is let Biden speak and get himself in trouble, if possible. When he has has turn, the moderator will try to interrupt him every time he steers towards the corruption issue. Trump will have to pick his spots, put the moderator on the spot if she interrupts, and use a bunch of his closing argument time where he cannot be interrupted and outline Biden`s corrupt behavior coherently for the entire world to understand.
I wonder if the moderator will repeat what she did when she interviewed a Clinton surrogate after a Clinton/Trump debate in 2016 and give the Biden team the questions in advance. She was caught on live TV reminding the surrogate of the questions to be asked. Unbelievable. That she was allowed to become a moderator is a failing of the Trump people to allow her to do so without making a great public issue of it to force a replacement. I think the answer is that she will forewarn the Biden team because the media is as corrupt as Biden and his family.
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