Trump’s chances at this point are virtually 100%. The fix is in. Republican’s and Trump have been touting the “fraud” narrative for years now. And now the disinformation campaign has gained traction with enough credulous people for it to matter. It will now seem “reasonable” to enough people when votes are cast in doubt and overturned in key states.
Republicans control the state legislatures in all the swing states. So the game will be to just contest every ballot in some key states that could swing the election, slow the counting down, and file endless lawsuits. Then after several weeks, shortly before the electoral votes will need to be cast, the state legislatures in a couple of key swing states will declare that they are “forced” to step in and resolve the chaos they created. They will of course then vote to give President Joffrey the electoral votes from their state.
It may not play out precisely like that. Since Republicans also control the courts they may just be able to throw out enough votes, as well, before it comes to that.
Trump is a mortal lock. He won’t win legitimately, but he will be sworn in on January 20th.