Trump’s odds of winning at 14%

[Mick1]

So says 538 in yesterday’s poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

And here’s a New York Times poll that says Trump has a 15% chance of winning.  This one is from November 6, 2016:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

I think my favorite part of the NY Times poll is that the final vote tally, Trump with a 304-227 electoral college win was considered to be somewhere in the 0.25% odds range.

Audaces fortuna iuvat

[rjnwmill]

Trafalgar has Orange up in AZ, OH & MI in there latest updates.

The efforts at and commitment to voter suppression runs deep in the left.

I imagine there will be another twist in the road. We’ll see.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[gpn38]

I guess taking Trump is a good to great bet. Since I am not a bettor, I don’t like this format by the way. This format doesn’t reflect the odds of who is going to win but what it would take for someone to bet on the underdog. Weird way of thinking.
More and more it is looking to me like the pollsters are wrong again, given the magnitude of the variances. Biden by 5 sure. Biden by 13 give  me a f ING break. Are you sampling NY, SF and Seattle? Only?

do these guys have bosses or do they not mind being grossly wrong for the cause of dethroning Orange man.

Mick, a final question for you to ponder: if you were a “ shy Trump voter” are you more or less likely to tell a pollster which way you will vote  this year v/s 2016. At least four years ago, you were just deplorable, This time, if you vote for Trump, you are a racist, xenophobe, anti Semitic,  gay hating, science denying cretin.

[FratBoySpike]

These polls are crap.  Worse than 4 years ago.  The Hispanic vote trumps blm-antifa.  JB’s and KH’s non answers on court packing and filibusters will cost them.  Suburbs want law and order not rioting.  Even Fox news is leaning too far left. Trump should blow off the one remaining debate and just do rallies. Trump in a electorate landslide even if he still loses the popular vote.  More weeping and gnashing of teeth for the left if the good guys can keep the left’s voter fraud to a minimum.

"Some people never go crazy. What truly horrible lives they must lead." - Charles Bukowski

[rjnwmill]

Maria Bartiromo, claiming medical sources, asks Orange if Biden has in fact had two brain aneurysms?  Orange took a pass.

Another October surprise?  Another issue voters don’t deserve an answer to?

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[Rocky17]

Have you registered to vote in Texas, Frat Boy?

[rjnwmill]

Rocky, how many states are you registered in?

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[Rocky17]

Several states:

1:  Florida

2:  distress

3:  confusion

4:  melancholy

5:  disbelief

6:  denial

7:  rebellion

I will take up to 5 bets on this board at $100 per with 7:1 odds that Trump will win which roughly reflects a 14% chance of his winning per that poll or whatever.  I will put up $500 with the possibility of winning $3500.  Any takers?

[FratBoySpike]

@Rocky:

I have been a busy boy getting settled here in Wylie, BUT I made getting registered top priority and I’m good to go…

"Some people never go crazy. What truly horrible lives they must lead." - Charles Bukowski

[Rocky17]

I feel better now, Frat Boy!  For the first time in 30 years, your vote will actually count and really mean something for the good of the nation.  A great feeling, isn`t it?

[Cornfed]

Texas is not in play.

[Rocky17]

Cornfed, if you ask those Dem polling concerns that are wreaking havoc on the polling averages on places like RCP, one would think Texas is turning blue big time.  You and I may not be fooled but CNN and MSNBC are trying to fool the world.  FWIW, however, all that money that almost upended Cruz in 2018 is now going into S. Carolina and I would be lying if I said I am not concerned at least a tad about Lindsay Graham.

Take every RCP average poll and add +5 to the Trump number and one is just about right on.

[FratBoySpike]

I just read an article yesterday that 700,000 Californians have relocated to Texas and in some places are getting their Biden signs stolen.  Haha.  I relocated from one of the last red areas within California (the state of Jefferson! which included southern Oregon), but lived in the blue bastion of Imperial County for most of my 40 years before that, so yeah, it will be nice to have my presidential vote count for the first time since 1988.  California flipped to blue in 1992 and has never been close since.  Unfortunately, it was probably Reagan’s amnesty provision of his 1986 Immigration and Control Act that helped turn the state forever.  The Control part never really made it through the final scrutiny and the Dems have been using the amnesty provision ever since to sweeten their rolls…

"Some people never go crazy. What truly horrible lives they must lead." - Charles Bukowski

[Rocky17]

Frat Boy, you have hit the nail head.  My greatest anger on steroids is the fact that many people move to Florida and Texas because of the low taxes, conservative government, reasonable home prices, no state income tax……………..and then to brainlessly begin to vote for the same kinds of people who ran the state they left to f it up for the rest of us and eventually for themselves.  Mindless, brainless and feckless idiots all.  There really ought to be a law.

[Mick1]

[quote quote=3012]I guess taking Trump is a good to great bet. Since I am not a bettor, I don’t like this format by the way. This format doesn’t reflect the odds of who is going to win but what it would take for someone to bet on the underdog. Weird way of thinking. More and more it is looking to me like the pollsters are wrong again, given the magnitude of the variances. Biden by 5 sure. Biden by 13 give me a f ING break. Are you sampling NY, SF and Seattle? Only? do these guys have bosses or do they not mind being grossly wrong for the cause of dethroning Orange man. Mick, a final question for you to ponder: if you were a “ shy Trump voter” are you more or less likely to tell a pollster which way you will vote this year v/s 2016. At least four years ago, you were just deplorable, This time, if you vote for Trump, you are a racist, xenophobe, anti Semitic, gay hating, science denying cretin.[/quote]

I don’t even tell my dog that I’m voting for Trump.  I don’t want my slippers chewed to shreds.

I wouldn’t tell anyone.  Period.  Too much down side for candor.  I think lots of folks feel that.

Audaces fortuna iuvat

[Mick1]

I’ve been thinking about voter fraud a bit.  Last year, I sent in my absentee ballot.  I received a notice about two weeks later that my ballot had been rejected because of irregularities.

Sounds like a foolproof system.

Audaces fortuna iuvat

[Beeg_Dawg]

I made my bet yesterday.  Moved all but about 10% of my retriement investments to cash.  Assuming Biden wins, I figure there will be at least a 10% “correction” in the market, and I don’t mean to the upside.

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