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- What should the West do to bring about the healthiest, but realistic end to the current situation? This is obviously a precarious and dangerous place we all find ourselves in. Is there a path forward that doesn’t end in nuclear war or some other global catastrophe and how do we get there?
- Regardless of what we should do, or your answer to the above question, what do you expect will happen medium to long term? In other words, when we look back some years from now, what will Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and relations with Russia look like? In other words, what do you think will happen or what are the most likely outcome(s)?
Thanks in advance for any thoughtful replies.
NO MALARKEY
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The West should immediately stop buying Russian oil. The West should also either provide the Ukraine with fighters (allegedly they have pilots), either MIGs from former Soviet countries or Western planes, or NATO should enforce a no fly zone over the Ukraine. Putin won’t attack NATO countries, except perhaps the Baltics, which he thinks are Russian anyway. The West has a chance to stop Putin now, they need to step up. I’d also put enormous pressure on China; if they want to be a global leader, they need to step up on the world’s stage to stop a despot.
What do I expect that will happen? Biden will continue to bow to Putin’s pressure and continue to fund his war effort by buying Russian oil. The West will hand wring as city after city in the Ukraine slowly fall to the onslaught. Millions will leave Ukraine, tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die, including most of the government courageous enough to stay and fight for their country. The greatest leader of the 21st century will either die in action, be assassinated, or be executed. The country we know as the Ukraine will rot after too much destruction to rebuild without any money. Russia will prevail. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia will fall next.
China will take Taiwan, and continue to push for control of the South China Sea and much of South East Asia. Islands will be built, bases constructed, US influence diminished. China, taking the long term view, will quietly support Russia through trade and support, while funding their efforts by manufacturing for the west. By 2070, they will be the dominant global power.
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Sad but I think CC’s view is close to mine. I see Russia’s move as just like Germany invading Poland in wwII . No difference except for the optics of the media. The invasion takes time and reports of Ukrainian resistance are promising but altogether ignorant of the realities of size.
China could be emboldened but that doesn’t matter. Absent a change in western values China’s approach will win. China is slowly pushing a knife into the hearts of the free world and we pay them to do it. Putin’s mistake is using guns and bombs.
We show our principles when we continue to buy Russian oil.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
For what little it’s worth, I believe in a couple of principles, inertia and don’t fight the “Fed”/trend line.
Accordingly, I’m not convinced China goes after Taiwan. They see the mess Putin is in. Why do they want in on that? What’s left after a victory? The expansion of the Chinese global influence over the last forty years has been achieved without firing a shot outside their borders.
They also surely recognize that their adversaries are self immolating; that they have successfully accelerated that process. They’ve increased their role and positioning in an increasingly interdependent global economy, see the “rust belt” and the shifts in supply chains, and the results therefrom; see Europe, the energy market and our inability/unwillingness to resist Russia in Ukraine.
I also think China is mastering their ability to influence our policy and institutions. They are effective “peacefully”. Why change? Too many politicians are on the payroll. Biden and his son are an example, but so is McConnell and his wife’s shipping interests. There are too many stories to doubt their approach and their effectiveness. Hello Fang Fang!
The Chinese are also playing an expanding role in our “thought leadership” with their investments in our universities and the active participation with their visiting students. A part of their leadership has been trained in the West.
I think the Chinese are also working with our politicians to fracture our body politic. Their long term interests align closely with our guys perceived short term self interests and our medias pursuit of market share. Over the last 40 years narrative has taken over our political dialog…news and policy accountability are less in evidence. See our reaction/management of our self imposed energy dependence…let’s reflate Nicaragua, Iran, Russia and the broader Middle East. They all love us. Let’s go green and ruin our economic competitiveness as Russia, China and India go coal? How does shifting the consumption of “cheap energy” to our competitors as we invest in expensive energy impact our positioning? We’ve actually got a fool like John Kerry on the public payroll?
So who changes the trend line? I don’t see our competitors pulling another “Putin”, do you? In fact the Chinese facilitated his folly by sharing our intelligence. They surely haven’t tried to stop this disaster as it’s spreading like the CCP virus. Aren’t they positioned to be the winners in this disaster?
I think the “progress” of the last 40 years is likely to continue until we/the west collapse. But I’m not certain that’s helpful in projecting what’s next? I have no read on how the repressive Chinese regime will evolve. They too must manage the technology driven evolution of public institutions. Middle of the fifth inning and they are in the lead.
Ps:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/stephen-roach-on-russia-china-relations-amid-ukraine-war.html
The guy is right as to where the power rests but I think he’s dead wrong on his reading as to where Xi’s interests lie.
Let his adversaries damage each other for a while…and burn coal baby.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long-
I think that in a 100 years or so when the history of this era is written, it will be in Mandarin by Chinese historians.
I have no opinion on where this is going but every day it is plain to see that we are entering a new “scare the crap out of everyone” event. The prior “scare the crap out of everyone” event went down a memory hole about 12 days ago. It lasted 2 years. It has been totally erased.
Kamala or someone of that calibre is going to negotiate the peace treaty for us by the way. US Taxpayers will pay for it. But who will Putin appoint stand before such an intellects?
Frankly I’m tired of the whole rotten thing.
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“The “best thing” that China could do right now is to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, said economist Stephen Roach.”
The best thing for who? China? China doesn’t have to be in a hurry to broker any deal. Xi Xiping is licking his chops. Of course he has Putin’s back. “Don’t worry, Vlad. PRC has your back. Don’t worry about sanctions, we’ll get you anything you need.”
The longer sanctions last, the stronger Xi’s grip on Moscow. While the west is focused on Ukraine, Xi is pretty free to engage in just about any level of fuckery that pleases him.
I agree with you Bob. There is no need for China to invade Taiwan. Next lib sitting in the White House will cede Taiwan for “peace in our time” or a short term deal that will poll well. Either way, China wins, taking another step towards it 2050 goals while we worry about which pronouns to use.
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Thanks everyone. I don’t disagree with much of it. I actually think long term this is worse than has even been suggested above. Regardless of China, Russia isn’t going to go away quietly. How that plays out, I don’t know. But even if we are weakening Russia, I’m sure they have plenty of cards to play still. And now they will play them when they have an opportunity. I hope someone comes back in a few years and tells me I was wrong and that it somehow works out well.
NO MALARKEY
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The best possible solution at the moment, is what Lindsay Graham suggested (arguably not appropriately), that someone on the inside in Russia take Putin out, Certainly the cleanest and quickest solution, but apparently highly unlikely as reports are that he’s been highly sequestered for quite awhile now.
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[quote quote=5873]First Biden wouldn’t ban US purchases of Russian oil. After huge pressure from both sides of the aisle, he relented. Now he won’t allow Poland to give the Ukraine MiGs. Whose side is he on?[/quote]
absolute incompetence to be sure.
Ukraine is going down. Biden has earned us higher energy pricing, general economic disruption, demonstrated inability to achieve foreign policy goals, notoriety for the effectiveness of our crushing super secret sanctions and Blinken promising Polish jets. And coming soon, the termination/trial of the Ukrainian leader. And Kamala wrapped herself in this to resurrect her reputation?
Good luck in the midterms. Good luck with that January 6th shit Liz.
And did I mention, with this backdrop the Fed starts raising rates this month?
And let’s be honest…in 2020 who thought this was preferable to “mean tweets”, Russia collusion, unilateral NATO disarmament by our European “partners”, increased energy dependence on Russia and now funding the economic growth and nuclear ambitions of Tehran and Venezuela? The choice was flawed to be sure, but it’s pretty clear we made the wrong one, no?
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
Mean tweets, lol. Sounds quaint.
News flash. Ukraine is banning all wheat and grain exports vital to the global food supply. A two for one.
So right now who is under the most pressure?
- Ukraine President
- Putin
- Biden
- Israel for the new Iran friendly Nuclear deal.
- China. They just lost a lot of grain to feed their people.
This year is setting up as one for the record books. The longer it goes the more it goes sideways. Someone is going to miscalculate and my pick is door #3.
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[quote quote=5876]Mean tweets, lol. Sounds quaint. News flash. Ukraine is banning all wheat and grain exports vital to the global food supply. A two for one. So right now who is under the most pressure?
- Ukraine President
- Putin
- Biden
- Israel for the new Iran friendly Nuclear deal.
- China. They just lost a lot of grain to feed their people.
This year is setting up as one for the record books. The longer it goes the more it goes sideways. Someone is going to miscalculate and my pick is door #3.[/quote]
Well, you went out on a limb picking that one! That’s like calling the winner of race between Usain Bolt and rjnwmill. Biden continues to shine in an irritating way. Maybe he is fooling all of us. Might be a stroke of political genius sending Kamala to Europe. No one will pay attention to her.
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[quote quote=5877][quote quote=5876][/quote] Well, you went out on a limb picking that one! That’s like calling the winner of race between Usain Bolt and rjnwmill. Biden continues to shine in an irritating way. Maybe he is fooling all of us. Might be a stroke of political genius sending Kamala to Europe. No one will pay attention to her.[/quote]
You are of course right. I recently lost a match race against a sloth and a penguin. No surprise on the penguin. He tobogganed on his belly. Those fatties can slide fast. I haven’t mastered the technique yet.
What best demonstrates the incompetence of this administration:
- Harris thinking she can resurrect her political standing by getting all over this slow motion disaster in Ukraine?
- Blinkin announcing we’re all in with Polish planes to Ukraine before the political types say we don’t have the stomach for something so provocative?
- Bio weapons facilities in Ukraine that we ignored/elected not to disclose for months as Russian troops staged on the border? (Did Faucci fund these too?) Is this worse than $80 billion in arms abandoned in Afghanistan?
- Funding terrorism globally with elevated energy prices and ridiculous sourcing decisions so we can unilaterally shut down our domestic energy industry…without a replacement available for decades?
- The head of the Joint Chiefs focusing our military on climate change and systemic racism, with assigned reading no less.
- Biden and his “Baghdad Bob” Press Secretary saying Putin is responsible for energy price increases…and expecting people to believe it.
- Super secret sanctions that were strategically shelved until after they might have impacted Russia’s decision to go forward with the invasion.
- The DHS Secretary assuring us our southern border is closed.
All this in 13 1/2 months? Perhaps scariest, we were assured this administration would mirror America. My friends, we’re a bunch of incompetent fools…or at least the Biden voters in 2020 are.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
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What should the West do to bring about the healthiest, but realistic end to the current situation? This is obviously a precarious and dangerous place we all find ourselves in. Is there a path forward that doesn’t end in nuclear war or some other global catastrophe and how do we get there?
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Regardless of what we should do, or your answer to the above question, what do you expect will happen medium to long term? In other words, when we look back some years from now, what will Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and relations with Russia look like? In other words, what do you think will happen or what are the most likely outcome(s)?
First, we’re doing it. We’re giving Ukraine as much support as we can afford to give; e.g., without Uncle Vlad trying to impale us with a bunch of hydrogen bombs. We’ve turned to Soviet Union…excuse me, Russia…into an international pariah, and we’ve ruined their economy. We still have one more economic arrow to let fly: MFN status. Sheer coincidence, Vladimir Putin wrote his law school thesis on the legal structures surrounding Most Favored Nation status.
Ukraine is finished as a viable country, though I’m not sure that’s a bad thing. It was as corrupt a country as there is, ranking #122 of 180 countries on the “least corrupt index.” Ukraine has many natural resources. Russia may try to leverage here, but the pressure that the Americans are keeping up should keep them at bay.
America will finish out ahead. France and Germany were reminded that Russians are pure thugs, they’ll be back in NATO, and closer than ever, as with Sweden, Finland (both of whom should join NATO) and the rest of the world will fully and completely ostracize Russia and get closer to the good ol’ U.S. of A.
China stood on the sidelines too long. They were too visible a partner to Russia. When Russia’s finished, China will be the lone remaining economic/military power that the USA needs to contend with. America will drive closer relationships with Japan, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries as they fear the Chinese threat.
In six months — assuming there’s no nuclear war — America will finish up on top.
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“Ukraine is finished as a viable country” I hope you’re wrong there. The people are fighting for their country and their freedom and independence. I think they just might come out of this a much better country than they were. First they have to survive.
Let me rephrase. I’m not saying there won’t be a Ukraine. But the Ukraine that the Ukrainians would have recognized is gone, and likely not to return. They’ve already lost Crimea. They will probably lose their two Eastern provinces bordering Russia, and they almost lost three. Their infrastructure is in the process of being ruined. They have lost 2-3 million refugees.
I would be very surprised if they engineered a rapid turnaround.
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That’s better than Sullivan or Blinken or Austin or Psaki or Harris have come up with.
They’re still assuring us that undefined threats of sanctions will “deter” Putin.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
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[quote quote=5893]How about painting Chinese flags on some of our planes and bombing Russia?[/quote]
I advocated, tongue in cheek, for a “small incursion” to take Vladivostok and the Sakhalin and Kuril Islands when the Russians pulled some of their Eastern troops for deployment in Ukraine. We could easily say we were returning the Kuril Islands to Japan. Using their words against them is fair play….
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IIRC, in 2014 Putin said he had no interest in taking back Alaska. Recently, however, a Russian politician, Oleg Matveychev, stated he wants to sue for economic harm that the U.S. sanctions are causing Russia, and he would accept receipt of Alaska in payment. And not just Alaska, but Fort Ross, CA because Russians discovered it.
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