The Fed and Interest Rates

[Mick]

Jay Powell thinks the government is overstating jobs numbers (like all other governments, particularly including Biden’s). Let’s factor in the incipient damage caused by looming AI. So if that’s the case Mr. Powell, (a) why are you dragging your feet on interest rate reductions and (b) why are the rate reductions so small?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Says U.S. May Be Drastically Overstating Jobs Numbers – WSJ

[rogpodge]

I would argue that inflation is worse / a bigger threat than unemployment right now. If anything, the Fed should probably be keeping rates steady or raising rates, as unpopular as it might be. Economic conditions are good in some states, but in certain large states, unemployment is high, AND inflation is high (mostly energy costs), which messes up the national numbers.

Lots of weird action in Wall Street. May realize some capital gains to pay for Roth conversions next year.

https://x.com/i/status/1999141769523421328

• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by rogpodge.

[Legend]

Nah. I think unemployment is going to win.  Everything in the world is monetized right now, and people will eventually stop buying and cancel subscriptions etc.

I chatted up a guy behind the desk of a combination pawn shop / gun shop yesterday.  He is the owner.  I asked him how Christmas was going. He said fine overall but that he’s buying more guns than selling.

If you want an indicator of financial tightness in flyover country, keep an eye on how often rednecks relinquish their guns for cash.

____________________________________________________________
Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)

[Mick]

I read years ago that your waiter is an inverse predictor of economic times. When you have a terrible waiter, the economy is doing great because the good waiters have better jobs. When you have a great waiter, the economy is terrible because the waiter can’t find a better job.

[Author]

Posts