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I found this article and a separate round-table commentary on why Harris won the vice presidency in the first place, despite underperforming versus all the other candidates in 2019 and 2020.
What strikes me as most interesting is that her skills as a prosecutor are directly the opposite of the skills that make you a great politician. Take the cross-examination of Brett Kavanaugh. She’s completely prepared, she knows every question, she knows the answer to every question and she pressed him every time. That’s what a prosecutor does. What a prosecutor doesn’t do is extemporize. They don’t think on their feet, because it’s dangerous, they never ask a question they don’t know the answer to, because it’s dangerous, and they never answer questions — not from judges, not from the opposition, not from the media…because it’s dangerous.
Basically, Harris was wholly unprepared to be a politician. She won as SF DA in part because she illegally outraised her competition, but was never called on it.
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Harris-violated-S-F-campaign-finance-law-D-A-2554388.php
She also inflated her prosecutorial record:
The city’s public defender called her unethical because of a crime lab scandal:
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By Nate Silver, 24 reasons Trump could win:
- Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, but The Electoral College bias favors Republicans by about 2 percentage points. In an era of intense partisanship and close elections, this is inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome.
- Inflation hit a peak of 9.1 percentagepoints in June 2022. It has abated now, but prices remain much higher than when Biden took office, and voters are historically highly sensitive to inflation. Democrats can also plausibly be blamed for it given intensive increases in government spending during COVID recovery efforts.
- Though the reasons for this are much debated, voter perceptions about the economy lag substantially behind objective data, and growth in take-home income has been sluggish for many years for the working classamid rising corporate profits.
- Incumbent parties worldwide are doing very poorly, and the historical incumbency advantage has diminishedto the point where it may now be an incumbency handicap instead amid perpetually negative perceptions about the direction of the country.
- Populism is often a highly effective strategy, and many Trump voters are indeed “deplorable” in the Hillary Clinton sense of the term.
- Illegal/unauthorized immigration increased substantially during the first few years of the Biden/Harris administrationamid a rising global backlash to immigration.
- Harris ran far to her left in 2019, adopting many unpopular positions, and doesn’t really have a viable strategyfor explaining her changing stances.
- The cultural vibes are shifting to the right, and the left continues to pay a price for the excesses of 2020on COVID, crime, “wokeness,” and other issues.
- Voters have nostalgia for the relatively strong economic performancein the first three years of Trump’s term and associate the problems of 2020 with Democrats, even though they weren’t in charge at the time.
- Democrats’ dominance among Black votersand other racial and ethnic minority groupsis slipping. It may be unfortunate timing: the memory of the Civil Rights Era is fading. Educational polarization, which implies deteriorating Democratic performance among working-class voters of all races, may also be coming to dominate other factors. It’s possible this works out well for Democrats if Harris makes corresponding gains among white voters, who pack more leverage in the Electoral College, but there’s no guarantee.
- Many men, especially young men, feel lost amidst declining college enrollment, contributing to a rightward shiftand a growing gender gap.
- Joe Biden sought to be president until he was 86. Voters had extremely reasonable objections to this, and it neuters what should have been one of Harris’s best issuesabout Trump’s age and cognitive fitness.
- got a late start to her race, inheriting most of the stafffrom the poorly-runBiden campaign. She’s proven to be a good candidate in many respects, but it’s always a big leap when the understudy is suddenly thrust into the spotlight.
- Harris is seeking to become the first woman president. In the only previous attempt, undecideds broke heavily against Hillary Clinton, and she underperformed her polls.
- Trust in media continues to fallto abysmal levels. One can debate how to attribute blame for this between longstanding conservative efforts to discredit the media, a secular decline in trust in institutions, and various overreaching and hypocrisyin the press. But it’s hard for even legitimate Trump critiques to penetrate the mass public. Trump’s conviction on a series of felony charges hardly made any difference, for instance.
- Trump has traits of a classic con man, but con artistry is often effective, and Trump is skilled at convincing voters that he’s on their sideeven if his election would not be in their best interest. Furthermore, Trump presents Democrats with a Three Stooges Syndrome problem: a range of plausible attacks so vast that they tend to cancel one another out.
- Democrats’ college-educated consultant class has poor instinctsfor how to appeal to the mass public, while Trump has done more to cultivate support among “weird” marginal voting groups.
- Democrats’ argument that Trump is a critical threat to democracy is valid and important, given January 6 and Trump’s broad disrespect for the rule of law. But it’s a tough sell: ultimately, January 6 was a near-miss— it could very, very easily have been much, much worse— and Democrats hold the White House, the Senate, and many key governorships now. It isn’t intuitive to voters that democracy is threatened and Democrats may have staked too many chips on this line of attack.
- Foreign policy might not matter much to voters, but the world has become more unstable under Biden’s tenure. There has been a declinein democracy worldwide and an increase in interstate conflict, crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, deteriorating US-China relations, increasing immigration flows because of global instability, and a pullout from Afghanistan that negatively impacted Biden’s popularity.
- The Israel-Hamas war split the Democratic basein a way no comparable issue has split the GOP base.
- There are more left-leaning third-party candidates than right-leaning ones, and the former leading third-party candidate (RFK Jr.) endorsed Trump and undermined Harris’s post-convention momentum.
- The richest man in the world, Elon Musk, has become a huge Trump stanand is doing everything in his power to tip the election to him. Twitter/X remains an influential platform among journalists but has shifted far to the right. Elon and Silicon Valley have also created a permission structure for other wealthy elites to advocate for Trump explicitlyand provided a new base of money and cultural influence.
- Trump was very nearly killedin an assassination attempt, and then there was a second oneagainst him. The first attempt was closely correlated with an increase in favorability ratings for Trump, and polling shows he’s considerably more popular and sympathetic than in 2016 or 2020.
- Harris has been running on vibesand has failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It might have been a good strategy if the “fundamentals” favored her, but they don’t.
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So since you brought that up…I received in my email the following Nate Silver post re: 24 reasons Trump could win. I could add 1/2 dozen myself that he didn’t include. If there’s “30 reasons Trump could win” and I can’t think of too many reasons that Kamala should win…I think he’ll probably win.
24 reasons that Trump could win
If there’s a second Trump term, we won’t lack for explanations.
<time datetime=”2024-10-20T15:32:51.049Z”>Oct 20</time>
This election remains extremely close, but Donald Trump has been gaining ground. One of my pet peeves is with the idea that this is Kamala Harris’s election to lose. I could articulate some critiques of her campaign, but if you study the factors that have historically determined elections, you’ll see that she’s battling difficult circumstances.
So, today’s newsletter simply aims to provide a laundry list of factors that favor Trump, with many links to evidence in previous Silver Bulletin posts and elsewhere. These are in no particular order.
- Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, but The Electoral College bias favors Republicans by about 2 percentage points. In an era of intense partisanship and close elections, this is inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome.
- Inflation hit a peak of 9.1 percentage points in June 2022. It has abated now, but prices remain much higher than when Biden took office, and voters are historically highly sensitive to inflation. Democrats can also plausibly be blamed for it given intensive increases in government spending during COVID recovery efforts.
- Though the reasons for this are much debated, voter perceptions about the economy lag substantially behind objective data, and growth in take-home income has been sluggish for many years for the working class amid rising corporate profits.
- Incumbent parties worldwide are doing very poorly, and the historical incumbency advantage has diminished to the point where it may now be an incumbency handicap instead amid perpetually negative perceptions about the direction of the country.
- Populism is often a highly effective strategy, and many Trump voters are indeed “deplorable” in the Hillary Clinton sense of the term.
- Illegal/unauthorized immigration increased substantially during the first few years of the Biden/Harris administration amid a rising global backlash to immigration.
- Harris ran far to her left in 2019, adopting many unpopular positions, and doesn’t really have a viable strategy for explaining her changing stances.
- The cultural vibes are shifting to the right, and the left continues to pay a price for the excesses of 2020 on COVID, crime, “wokeness,” and other issues.
- Voters have nostalgia for the relatively strong economic performance in the first three years of Trump’s term and associate the problems of 2020 with Democrats, even though they weren’t in charge at the time.
- Democrats’ dominance among Black voters and other racial and ethnic minority groups is slipping. It may be unfortunate timing: the memory of the Civil Rights Era is fading. Educational polarization, which implies deteriorating Democratic performance among working-class voters of all races, may also be coming to dominate other factors. It’s possible this works out well for Democrats if Harris makes corresponding gains among white voters, who pack more leverage in the Electoral College, but there’s no guarantee.
- Many men, especially young men, feel lost amidst declining college enrollment, contributing to a rightward shift and a growing gender gap.
- Joe Biden sought to be president until he was 86. Voters had extremely reasonable objections to this, and it neuters what should have been one of Harris’s best issues about Trump’s age and cognitive fitness.
- Harris also got a late start to her race, inheriting most of the staff from the poorly-run Biden campaign. She’s proven to be a good candidate in many respects, but it’s always a big leap when the understudy is suddenly thrust into the spotlight.
- Harris is seeking to become the first woman president. In the only previous attempt, undecideds broke heavily against Hillary Clinton, and she underperformed her polls.
- Trust in media continues to fall to abysmal levels. One can debate how to attribute blame for this between longstanding conservative efforts to discredit the media, a secular decline in trust in institutions, and various overreaching and hypocrisy in the press. But it’s hard for even legitimate Trump critiques to penetrate the mass public. Trump’s conviction on a series of felony charges hardly made any difference, for instance.
- Trump has traits of a classic con man, but con artistry is often effective, and Trump is skilled at convincing voters that he’s on their side even if his election would not be in their best interest. Furthermore, Trump presents Democrats with a Three Stooges Syndrome problem: a range of plausible attacks so vast that they tend to cancel one another out.
- Democrats’ college-educated consultant class has poor instincts for how to appeal to the mass public, while Trump has done more to cultivate support among “weird” marginal voting groups.
- Democrats’ argument that Trump is a critical threat to democracy is valid and important, given January 6 and Trump’s broad disrespect for the rule of law. But it’s a tough sell: ultimately, January 6 was a near-miss — it could very, very easily have been much, much worse — and Democrats hold the White House, the Senate, and many key governorships now. It isn’t intuitive to voters that democracy is threatened and Democrats may have staked too many chips on this line of attack.
- Foreign policy might not matter much to voters, but the world has become more unstable under Biden’s tenure. There has been a decline in democracy worldwide and an increase in interstate conflict, crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, deteriorating US-China relations, increasing immigration flows because of global instability, and a pullout from Afghanistan that negatively impacted Biden’s popularity.
- The Israel-Hamas war split the Democratic base in a way no comparable issue has split the GOP base.
- There are more left-leaning third-party candidates than right-leaning ones, and the former leading third-party candidate (RFK Jr.) endorsed Trump and undermined Harris’s post-convention momentum.
- The richest man in the world, Elon Musk, has become a huge Trump stan and is doing everything in his power to tip the election to him. Twitter/X remains an influential platform among journalists but has shifted far to the right. Elon and Silicon Valley have also created a permission structure for other wealthy elites to advocate for Trump explicitly and provided a new base of money and cultural influence.
- Trump was very nearly killed in an assassination attempt, and then there was a second one against him. The first attempt was closely correlated with an increase in favorability ratings for Trump, and polling shows he’s considerably more popular and sympathetic than in 2016 or 2020.
- Harris has been running on vibes and has failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It might have been a good strategy if the “fundamentals” favored her, but they don’t.
Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publica
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I swear, UK writing is better than American writing. Not only is this a great title, but the absence of gaslighting is breathtaking. An independent writer points out the inconsistencies (to be kind) or vast gaps (to be less kind) between what KH does and what KH says.
Every time Kamala Harris opens her mouth, she sounds like an idiot (msn.com)
From the article:
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>Kamala Harris has now spent a full month running on little more than the wave of relief from Joe Biden‘s departure.</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>Finally, on Friday, she unveiled an iota of policy – focused on American finances.</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>Judging by this first batch of economic proposals, Kamalanomics is a bad joke.</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>It’s warmed-over Bidenomics – and worse, she pretends America can expect something different if they elect her.</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>’A loaf of bread costs 50 percent more today than it did before the pandemic,’ Harris told a crowd in North Carolina. ‘Ground beef is up almost 50 percent.'</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font continue-read-break” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>Yes, and you’ve had three and a half years to do something about it while you’ve been running the country as Vice President. What’s stopping you from doing something about it right now?</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>Harris won’t say.</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>Has Bidenomics failed?</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>Harris won’t say.</p>
<p data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>and: Meanwhile, she says she’ll cut taxes for families with kids. This, after weeks of mocking J.D. Vance for his pro-family stance.</p>
<p data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>and:</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>In fact, analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Harris’s propsed plan would see the deficit increase by a staggering $1.7 trillion in a decade.</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>and:</p>
<p class=”mol-para-with-font” data-t=”{"n":"blueLinks"}”>The only sensible economic policy she laid out last week was a Trump copy: his plan to eliminate taxes on tips.</p>Audaces fortuna iuvat
Aaaaaand…I’m wrong. Or at least late. Because Biden has assured his staff he’s staying in:
‘I’m Not Leaving’: Biden Makes Absolutely Clear on All-Staff Call He’s In ‘This Race to the End’
…and no one is pushing him out:
Biden: ‘No one’s pushing me out’
And yes, there is pressure for him to drop out:
Biden Struggles to Contain Mounting Pressure to Drop Out of Race
Particularly with the White House press having no faith/confidence in anything Biden or press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre says.
White House Reporters: Biden Handlers’ ‘Credibility’ Is Shot
Even though Trump’s lead is now 6% in the separate NYT/Siena and WSJ polls:
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/03/biden-trump-nyt-poll-debate-election-2024
Harris is only 2% behind Trump, says a totally-believable, not-fake-news CNN poll:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752020-vice-president-harris-trump-biden-poll/
Seven separate senior sources say Harris is the top alternative to Biden, should the 25th amendment be invoked, or Jill gets tired of the White House, or Biden forgets his name, or…whatever. Michael Trujillo, a California Dem strategist who worked for HRC’s campaigns in 2008 and 2016 said it’s basically impossible to win the nomination over the VP. Donna Brazile says Harris can step in right away:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/vp-harris-top-choice-replace-100732018.html
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What is amazing to me (and proof MSM is in the liberal bag) is the absolute silence about Schiff. Mr. Irrefutable Proof that Trump colluded with the Russians. The guy is running for US Senate, and not a peep from MSM about his lynch mob mentality in going after Trump.
It concerns me greatly when the MSM doesn’t call out a major politician for their issues. Along those lines, as Harvey Weinstein deservedly sits in jail, it’s easy to point out what a reprehensible lizard he was. Imagine, demanding sexual favors in trade for career advancement. Horrific, I agree. And yet…while it is awful for the gander, it’s acceptable for the goose? How is that different from what Kamala Harris did? She carried on a public affair (so public that it was discussed in Herb Caen’s column) with a highly placed public official, Willie Brown, who gave her the first two political positions she had, including a $120k annual comp job…and a BMW, as Willie proudly noted. Like a budding actress, she slept with a powerful man and received favors. Why no public outcry? Why was it off-limits during the campaign?
A few outlets published it, sort of. The San Diego Times deliberately mischaracterized it:
The Uniquely California Story of Kamala Harris’ Political Rise – Times of San Diego
Joan Walsh of The Nation actually walked back her formerly accurate article:
Kamala Harris Has Been Here Before | The Nation
Politico was a little more accurate:
‘Ruthless’: How Kamala Harris Won Her First Race – POLITICO Magazine
The Mercury News and Reuters supposedly fact-checked the story, focusing on the “technically married” 60-year-old Brown dating the 28-year-old Kamala Harris, writing almost exclusively about the affair angle, but not focusing at all on the political patronage she undeservedly received from Brown:
Kamala Harris and Willie Brown had a relationship while he was married (mercurynews.com)
The Washington Examiner was the only publication that was factual, e.g., she stuck with Brown for political benefits until she didn’t need him anymore, then she broke up with him:
USA Today and the Los Angeles Times were balanced, noting Brown’s corruption and the direct political benefits that Harris derived and her attempt to distance herself from Brown and the corruption angle in 2003.
Willie Brown on Kamala Harris: ‘We dated,’ I ‘influenced her career’ (usatoday.com)
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Incidentally, one of the authors whose work was plagiarized by Harvard President Caroline Gay is furious that Gay has not been disciplined. Dr. Carol Swain said it wasn’t just a few paragraphs, but that Gay essentially stole her work:
<p dir=”ltr” lang=”en” xml:lang=”en”>”I rarely get angry, but I am angry 😡 right now about the racial double standards that are TEMPORARILY giving #ClaudineGay an opportunity to resign. White progressives created her and white progressives are protecting her. The rest of us have had to work our rear ends off to… pic.twitter.com/5ls2f4PUtB</p>
— Dr. Carol M. Swain (@carolmswain) December 12, 2023”Dr. Swain also said:
“She became president of Harvard and got recognition as being its first black president. I don’t believe her record warranted tenure…Something changed in the mid-1990s, [when] we were having a big affirmative action debate…A white male would probably already be gone.”
National Association of Scholars president Peter Wood: “What does it mean if the Ph.D. dissertation is plagiarized? It means that the credential is based on falsehoods. It is, in effect, counterfeit currency.”
https://t.co/eNyi2iqsNo pic.twitter.com/pp99ClusWR
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…and Gaetz gets what he wants. McCarthy is out.
Matt Gaetz files resolution to oust McCarthy as speaker | AP News
Kevin McCarthy voted out: first House Speaker to be ousted | AP News
McCarthy won’t run again. It took him 15 rounds to get elected in the first place. Repubs will hold a speaker candidate forum on Tuesday. Rep. McHenry (NC and chair of Financial Services Committee) is speaker pro tempore and is privately telling people he’s the leading candidate. BTW, McHenry is the oldest looking 47 year old I’ve ever seen. And he ordered Nancy Pelosi to vacate the speaker hideaway office, ho ho ho:
Kevin McCarthy, after ouster, says he won’t run again for speaker
Other candidates include Tom Emmer, House Majority Whip, though he supports Steve Scalise (LA). Kevin Hern (OK) is a hardliner who wants to run. Jim Jordan (OH), who was a McCarthy ally.
An early look at possible successors to McCarthy for House speaker | CNN Politics
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
Interesting that Trump outscored/outpolled both Biden and Obama at the same point in their presidencies.
Also interesting that a recent Consult poll indicates that the Republicans are more capable than Democrats of tackling the big issues, by a nine point margin. Said poll results are driven by the Democrats’ own voter base, a natural result of the Progressives taking over what was once a liberal party.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/voter-confidence-democratic-party-2024-election
Peggy Noonan’s take seems accurate. Voters don’t like Democratic stands on immigration, COVID (and related supply chain, retail and education issues), the economy, inflation, gender issues, or crime. They don’t like Biden’s obvious cognitive decline, or his transformation from a moderate leftist to a Progressive captive or his family’s shenanigans. And how does he afford all those expensive houses?
The trends are not good, says Peggy. Most trenchant comment: recent inflation was sudden. In the past, inflation crept up. It exploded on the scene.
Biden’s job approval is 13 points under water.
RealClearPolitics – President Biden Job Approval
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Along these lines, you may be familiar with Stanford’s Associate Dean for DEI, Tirien Steinbach, who defended the actions of protesters who shouted down a conservative Fifth Circuit Court judge and speaker at a Stanford Law School function on March 9, 2023. Steinbach also publicly advised the visiting judge not to speak.
Judge Duncan event at Stanford on Vimeo
In response, Dean Martinez penned this missive on free speech and protesting:
Dean Martinez: Next Steps on Protests and Free Speech – Stanford Law School
Steinbach was suspended, and today was relieved of her responsibilities.
Alex Morey on Twitter: “Stanford Law announces Tirien Steinbach will leave her post, months after she appeared to facilitate a shoutdown of a 5th Circuit judge, leading Stanford to overhaul its free speech practices. https://t.co/WkOIFpDEgx” / Twitter
Incidentally, some Stanford students and administrators were forced to go through free speech training.
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One year ago, Joe Scarborough said “This is the best version of Joe Biden…ever!”
Joe Scarborough Says “This Version of Biden…is the Best Biden Ever”
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Interesting LA Times article. Apparently she’s genuinely torn whether to run a disastrous campaign for President or torment California residents as our Governor.
The author asks “Why do you want to be California’s Governor?” And he draws a parallel to Bobby Kennedy, who torpedoed his presidential run when he couldn’t answer the question, not really. And she’s the worst extemporaneous speaker of any major politician I’ve ever seen. The answer is, she wants the power and the limelight. But I suspect California voters want more.
Incidentally, 10 Californians have already declared their intention to run for Governor. Harris’ current CA approval rating is 50%, not a screaming success.
Barabak: For Kamala Harris, it’s not just whether to run for California governor. It’s why
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Crime has gone up 70% in AOC’s district. She doesn’t care, and wouldn’t know what to do about it if she did care. But she supports “defund the police.”
AOC’s district sees 70% crime surge — more than double NYC average: ‘She doesn’t care’
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