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I’ve been worried about this for a while. The basic calculation of GDP is:
- Consumer spending +
- Business investment/spending +
- Government spending +
- Net of Exports – Imports
Consumers don’t have any money left to spend. That’s constant. We still have a trade deficit. Trump is about to massively reduce government spending at the Federal level. And that’s all fine, if business investment steps up. If the re-shoring of American manufacturing goes well, if tariffs (and tariff threats) have the desired effect of getting more countries to build here — which is what the Japanese have done — then maybe we avoid recession and have a stronger country. Energy investment and exploration will have something to do with that. Ideally, that will help with the trade deficit as well.
I should have also mentioned that I think Trump intends to shrink the trade deficit, #4 above. My old econ prof used to tell us that the national debt didn’t matter much because it was largely money we owed to ourselves (probably true in 1982, not so true now) but the real problem was the trade deficit because we were actively exporting value.
I think what Trump is trying to do is:
- Increase #1 consumer spending (hence $5k dividend from shrinking govt)
- Encourage #2, businesses to invest more, and as we re-shore, they should invest more, same with foreign companies, we want them to build here.
- Massive reduction in government spending, including massive reduction in military and foreign spending.
- Improvement in the trade deficit #4.
I think Trump believes that tariffs will lead to greater domestic investment (as the Japanese and Koreans are already doing), which will lead to more jobs and more domestic money, and that tariffs will generate government revenue and improve the trade deficit.
We’ll see. Hope it works.
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Newsom just asked the Federal government for $40 billion to help combat the effects of fires that killed 29 people, and destroyed 16,000 structures and 57,000 acres of land.
Frankly…I don’t trust him, or the other politicians to not waste that money, on the offhand chance that the Trump administration actually gives it to him.
Newsom wants billions from Congress to rebuild Los Angeles after fire
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I never figured so many Republicans would side with Putin. The rot goes deep.
I never figured so many Democrats would turn into neocons…
So, Mr. No Malarkey…what would you have done? What would you recommend? How would you have conducted the war?
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And just to cap it all off, the head of the Los Angeles Fire Department Union blasted Mayor Karen Bass for firing department Chief Kristin Crowley.
An entire city burned down on Police Chief Crowley’s watch. I’d say that’s the very definition of “not doing your job.”
Don’t get me wrong. Bass should be fired by the voters and Newsom should be fired by the voters. And — newsflash — voters get the leadership that they deserve. But Crowley deserves to be fired, along with that fire department deputy chief and diversity leader who thinks men caught in a fire deserve what they get:
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That’s just so odd to me. The Democrats, for whatever reason, have chosen to be on the 20 side of many 80/20 issues. And they’re warmongering, relatively speaking. The entire Democratic party has become a “Portlandia” sketch. A bunch of privileged mean girls, per Bill Maher, always on the “stupid” side:
- Queers for Palestine.
- Masks two years after the pandemic ended
- You can’t define women
- Turned schools and colleges into a joke
- 200 DEI officers at a college
- Keeping kids out of school for two years
- Shoplifting is the same as shopping
- $6 billion in property damage is “mostly peaceful”
- You think America is racist
- They’re not “mothers”, they are “inseminated persons”*
- You “believe in science” but don’t want to consider the possibility that COVID might have escaped from a lab dedicated to weaponizing viruses
- You love to speak truth to power but lost the ability to speak truth to bullshit.
As Bill Maher says “Democrats run for office as if the voters don’t live here.” My personal favorite was Kamala Harris scolding the head of the Teamsters — the Teamsters — “you better get with the program. We’ll win with or without you.”
(40) New Rule: Tough Love Dems | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) – YouTube
*Determined to Lose: Dem Gov. Supports Replacing ‘Mother’ With ‘Inseminated Person’
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6,000 IRS agents to be laid off, mainly probationary employees. IRS had boosted hiring in an effort to “improve customer service.”
I remember my last interaction at the IRS. They make the DMV look like the height of efficiency. The IRS officer had alcohol on his breath at 10 a.m. And he found it very difficult to focus on very basic issues. At least I had to drive an hour to find an IRS office willing to set up an appointment.
Thousands of layoffs expected to start hitting the IRS on Thursday – POLITICO
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I hate to tell you, but the former VP, Kamala Harris, has a deep contact book, name recognition, a mailing list, a deep bench of volunteers and access to cash. She would clear the field in 2026, according to both Newsweek and the LA Times.
I’ll take Things that will never happen for $5oo. Californians will vote for her as president to keep her the hell out of Dodge. That deep contact book friend list will not forget what a miserable candidate she is.
I think you’re right about that. There’s a plaintiff’s attorney named John Morgan, who is high up in the Dem billionaire hierarchy. Here’s quotes from the video below, hosted by Kayleigh McEnany:
“She can never run for President again”
“I begged them not to put her up.”
“She has no talent.”
“The votes that she got were people voting against Trump.”
and on and on and on…
John Morgan interview on Kamala Harris
Best part is his quote: “I’m a Bill Clinton Democrat. Each year, I’ve been pushed further and further out. The Squad. Defund the Police. Woke…it pushes people like me…I’m now a registered independent because I can’t abide that business.” and “Joe Biden is the end of the line for me…I would say to the Squad ‘Mission Accomplished…I’m out.”
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Hope California (Bay area and LA) elects her a governor for life and California secedes. How fun watching CA operate on solar power and no manufacturing.
Yeah, I’m not loving that. My grandfather (Stanford, ’42) started a very successful manufacturing business in California just after the Korean War that provided for three generations of our family and 75 other families. It was profitable every year until 2008. It’s out of business now, no thanks in part to California’s onerous, anti-manufacturing stance. It wasn’t any one thing, just a combination of factors that made it basically impossible to manufacture in California.
Actually, both of my grandfathers were in the same business. My other grandfather went to Cal for a few years and ended up a shop foreman. Terrific machinist, he invented or refined the machinery that my other grandfather used in his business. Cal-grandpa has his name on four patents.
Separately, my first firm did a lot of work for machine shops, many/most of which created technology prototypes. All of them are out of business now.
So much for manufacturing in California.
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California A. G. Rob Bonta has said he won’t run for CA Governor. and has endorsed Kamala Harris There’s no plan past Newsom.
I hate to tell you, but the former VP, Kamala Harris, has a deep contact book, name recognition, a mailing list, a deep bench of volunteers and access to cash. She would clear the field in 2026, according to both Newsweek and the LA Times.
Kamala Harris Comeback? California Governor Talk Grows – Newsweek
The only thing that prevents Harris from being our next governor — and I mean literally the only thing — is that nitwit is still considered the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic Presidential nomination.
She’s been successful in California politics as SF DA, CA AG and senator. She did open a campaign account for governor in 2018, then closed it. 72% of CA Dems are very likely or somewhat likely to support Harris.
Don’t forget, Nixon lost the presidency in 1960…then eight years later, he won.
Sports Betting Dime lists the 2028 presidential odds for the following people. Note that Harris is 10th on the list:
Candidate (Party) Odds JD Vance (GOP) +300 Michelle Obama (DEM) +500 Gavin Newsom (DEM) +550 Ron DeSantis (GOP) +800 Tulsi Gabbard (GOP) +1000 Hillary Clinton (DEM) +1400 Tucker Carlson (GOP) +1400 Nikki Haley (GOP) +2500 Oprah Winfrey (DEM) +2500 Kamala Harris (DEM) +2500 Josh Shapiro (GOP) +3300 Robert F Kennedy Jr (IND) +3300 Vivek Ramaswamy (GOP) +3300 Donald Trump Jr (GOP) +4000 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DEM) +5000 Doug Burgum (GOP) +5000 Elon Musk (GOP) +5000 Gretchen Whitmer (DEM) +5000 Ivanka Trump (GOP) +5000 Tim Walz (DEM) +5000 Dwayne Johnson (TBD) +6600 Elizabeth Warren (DEM) +6600 Glenn Youngkin (GOP) +6600 JB Pritzker (GOP) +6600 Liz Cheney (GOP) +6600 Mark Kelly (DEM) +6600 Audaces fortuna iuvat
The Democrats have really become the party of the uncaring wealthy, basically the party of make-believe and/or people who lead make-believe lives. Hollywood, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Big Law. And the groups who aren’t wealthy, but are devoted to make-believe, non-real-world causes like Big Media and Big Academia.
The net effect is that Democrats are simply astonished that inflation has the political impact that it does. It’s a uniquely childlike viewpoint…they don’t care about the price of eggs or gasoline, so why should anyone else?
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That’s the great part of being both a little bit crazy and the meanest mother in the Valley…adversaries never really know what you intend to do or what you’re capable of doing. So everything becomes a negotiating point.
Along those lines, I don’t really understand the Dems who kvetch about Trump’s popularity and election. The Democrats could have put themselves in an advantaged position. They wanted Joe Rogan. Well, you had Joe Rogan for years, he was a Bernie guy. But you dismissed him as a white bro. You ran — and elected and propped up — a senile man for President, who literally couldn’t handle the job from the day he entered it, who had to have an array of handlers to control access to him. And then , to top it all off, you nominated the single least qualified individual as your candidate, and she proved in every day and in every way that she wasn’t up to the job as she blew through a $1 billion budget.
How do you not understand that your party is bereft of ideas, authority, expertise and talent?
Donald Trump is now president. And if he wants to threaten to take over Gaza…or Greenland…people are going to take him seriously. Thanks, Democrats…you helped put him there.
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Four minutes on why the Jones Act is killing the U. S. economically.
Reviving Water Transport in the United States || Peter Zeihan
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Like he did in his first term, he also will pressure the fed to lower rates significantly. That’s nice for some people, but if not done at the right time, it can promote inflation. Biden didn’t do himself any favors and spent too much, as well. But if Trump acts like he did in his first term, and implements the policies he’s proposing in his second term, we will be in for another round of major inflation.
I genuinely mean no disrespect, but this might be the most nonsensical thing I’ve ever read on the Internet. You have got to be kidding me. The Fed kept rates literally as low as they could go during Obama’s entire two terms at 0.25% (see link below). And then, the Fed literally raised interest rates almost every single quarter during Trump’s first term (same link, set initial date to 1/1/2008).
Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
During his first term he also increased the money supply substantially, resulting in inflation that kicked in just as Biden was taking over.
M3 is the most common money supply reference. As you can see from this chart, Trump continued Obama’s steady increase of money supply. It didn’t really jump until COVID and Trump’s last year. Biden accelerated it.
M3 for the United States – 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1960-2023 Historical
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Yup. Multiple sources confirmed. Also, he didn’t get into UC Santa Barbara either. He’d been accepted to Cal State San Marcos and Cal Poly, and in his home state, Florida Atlantic University.
And Harvard.
A 1270 SAT score isn’t terrible, it’s the 88th percentile. His 1270 was close to the 1230 75th percentile at UCSB. Probably would have had a better chance at getting into UC-Davis, where he’d be at the 50th percentile, give or take.
When my oldest was a frosh in high school, speaking strictly on test scores, Cal and UCLA were #1 and UC-SD was right behind them. Another standard deviation away was UC-Irvine, UCSB and UC-Davis…all had similar test scores. Another standard deviation past those three was UC-Santa Cruz, and another S. D. past UCSC was UC-Riverside. UC-Merced wasn’t around at the time.
By his junior year, UCSC’s acceptance rate dropped from about 83% to somewhere in the low 60’s. And in the intervening period, it looks like Irvine and Santa Barbara have elevated while UC-Davis has dropped to a virtual tie with UC Santa Cruz.
Current US News & World Report rankings, just for fun:
Princeton, #1 followed by MIT, Harvard, Stanford and Yale.
Next five are CalTech, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, and Penn.
Rest of the Ivies and Chicago are between #11 and #15.
- UCLA (15)
- Cal (17)
- UC San Diego (29)
- UC-Davis (33)
- UC-Irvine (33)
- UC-Santa Barbara (39)
- UC-Merced (58)
- Santa Clara (63)
- UC-Riverside (76)
- UC-Santa Cruz (84)
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