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Apparently Biden didn’t receive a bump from his State of the Union address. Pundits were fawning all over it, but Biden actually lost 1%, per a Yahoo/YouGov poll. He went from down 45% to 44% to Trump (46%) over Biden (44%).
Before the speech, 40% of Americans approved of the job Biden was doing, 56% disapproved. After the speech, 39% approved, 55% disapproved.
Democrat support for Biden is down 2% (79% vs. 81% in January) and 62% of Dems say Biden is fit to serve another term compared to 64% in January.
Biden’s support to be the Dem candidate fell from 62% to 56%.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-newsyougov-poll-no-state-of-the-union-bump-for-biden-190451496.html
On the other hand, Trump can’t seem to get above 30% in this ABC/Ipsos poll. But the operative number from this poll is that 36% think Trump would be a better president against 33% for Biden. 30% say neither.
Donald Trump Stung as New Poll Shows How Unpopular He Is (msn.com)
Audaces fortuna iuvat
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I think Biden will make the cut, absent medical issues that prevent him from carrying out his job (other than his current medical issues, which to my mind are debilitating, particularly for the most important job in the world, but no one asked me). The third party contender issue is interesting…Cornell West and Jill Stein announced last year, neither are viable candidates and I doubt that Stein will crest more than 1.5% in the popular vote and West won’t get more the 1/10th of 1% of the vote.
35 candidates were on at least one state ballot and received votes in the Presidential election of 2020 (seriously). One candidate received less than 100 votes, another 10 received less than 1,000 votes. 14 received between 1,000 and 10,000 votes and six more received between 10k and 100,000 votes. Green party candidate Howie Hawkins and his running mate Angela Nicole Walker received 402,795 votes, 0.3% of the overall vote. And the lone major third party candidate, Libertarian Jo Jorgenson and her running mate Spike Cohen received 1.2% of the vote, 1,864,873 votes. There were another 183,120 write-in votes.
Trump had 74.223 million votes (46.9%) and Biden had 81.282 million votes (51.3%), totaling 98.2% of the overall vote. All other candidates, 1.8%. I don’t think Stein or West move the needle. RFK Jr? Maybe. What if he gets 10% of the vote? What if Trump refuses to make Nikki Haley VP and she runs on a third party platform?
Audaces fortuna iuvat
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