July 31, 2021 at 1:54 am #4990
Okay. I’ve seen enough. Dr. Fauci / Dr. Wallensky don’t know what they’re doing, have staffed the CDC with people who don’t understand population dynamics or elementary statistics, and we’ve clearly raised a generation (or two) of people who can’t assess risk properly.
This is a very good thread & explains the situation clearly. The message of this week should not have been vaccines don't work (by the way, bad messaging if that is what you said)- they do!!! https://t.co/ck3Tt8KW4D
— Monica Gandhi MD, MPH (@MonicaGandhi9) July 31, 2021
The White House’s messaging is an unmitigated disaster. It has been actively undermining the vaccine for a week by essentially claiming that the vaccine won’t work against the Delta variant, and that we’re going to have to lockdown regardless anyway. The messaging must be clear, the vaccines prevent more serious symptoms and greatly reduces mortality. They are extremely effective. WE SHOULD NOT BE BACKSLIDING ON MASKING FOR VACCINATED FOLKS. The actual statistics and numbers don’t justify it. Panic porn headlines on CNN and the NY Times, undermined by the text of the articles aren’t helping.
Follow up #1: Prompted by question on Twitter (https://t.co/XfTCpP2Xij) I just did a simple correlation of total population fully vaccinated against Delta-specific Rt across 20 states with good data. We get a decently strong negative correlation with R^2 of 0.32. pic.twitter.com/i27X8Tk9mN
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) July 1, 2021
Vaccine effectiveness is still over 70% for the Delta variant. Higher vaccination rates greatly reduce the R values of transmission. We should continue rewarding people who get vaccinated.
Trying to politicize who is and isn’t getting the vaccine isn’t helping. The media is completely complicit in this, emphasizing the political correlation over the more strongly correlated factors (income, education, race (unfortunately, despite pretty good initial outreach) that would make a difference. ALSO, pre-polarization / political media, the government would try to unify the country and try to get more needles in arms, rather than trying to politicize the issue (which, I suspect, entrenches people’s opinions rather than changing minds). I would have liked to have seen Obama and some Republican (even *gulp* Trump, although I would like to see Trump Jr. do this) do a joint national address encouraging everyone to get vaccinated who can. This shouldn’t be a partisan issue.
To be clear, yes, the Provincetown outbreak was among vaccinated folks. It has resulted in seven hospitalizations (most with pre-existing conditions) and no deaths. What isn’t being discussed is, um, the reason for the outbreak.
If the CDC has increased their Delta Ro because of the Ptown cohort, then they are overstating it for the general population. The cohort was 85% male (WaPo and NYT have both failed to mention this). Hello, it was Bear Week. @apoorva_nyc rightly mentions packed bars, etc., but /1 https://t.co/VGYHqPMqQ3
— Peter Staley (@peterstaley) July 30, 2021
Being intimate / swapping saliva with multiple people who may have a breakthrough case is going to create viral loads that are detectable / positive tests. It’s a unique situation, and should be treated as such, NOT form the basis for national policy.
July 31, 2021 at 9:37 am #4991rjnwmillParticipant
You are a scholar and a gentleman, don’t ever change. Thanks
Facebook pushed back when the senile one called them “murders”. How long before big pharma does as well? This is the unintended consequence of leadership entirely dependent on queue cards and scripted “press interactions”. (And now all the bureaucratic little “Colonel Vindmans” come out from behind the shrubs in the lobby to institute policy.)
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
July 31, 2021 at 4:05 pm #4994
White House: Here's the data we are basing our new frightening covid policy on
Media: This data is frightening!
WH: Wait, no, stop. Don't say that
Media: Same viral loads!
WH: No but–
Media: THREE QUARTERS OF INFECTED ARE VACCINATED!
WH: Can we blame Tucker for this?
— Noam Blum (@neontaster) July 31, 2021
This is a great summary of what happened (without the White House basically saying we’re imposing new restrictions for… reasons (because “health experts have determined” and “you don’t need to know why” and “we’re following the science”).
August 1, 2021 at 12:01 pm #4996
Every piece of data from real-life shows the vaccines work very, very well— yes, even against Delta. Just checked US vaccine breakthrough hospitalizations. It's 6,587 people among the ~163,000,000 vaccinated: or 0.004%. Three fourths are elderly— as happens with other diseases. https://t.co/TmZkxRlETk pic.twitter.com/fUaTyXprey
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) August 1, 2021
Here’s more data on “breakthrough” infections. What are we doing and why?
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