Following Beyond Thunderdome

[rjnwmill]

What does China take away from Putin’s efforts in Ukraine?  With the Russian military strategy and combat capabilities coming into clearer focus, do they rethink their approach to our two China policy?

With the civilian slaughter coming into full relief, can they continue to ride the fence about the situation in Ukraine?  Can they continue to provide economic comfort to Russia?  What vehicles are available to them if they choose to do so?

Can China and India continue to feed on cheap Russian oil and support the Ruble?

What does Cornholio do if 11 million barrels a day are withdrawn from the market?  How high is high for oil?

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[Mick]

On a broader scale, China has been learning all along from Western reaction to Putin’s thuggery (overseas assassinations, troops in Kazakhstan, Russian money into Western politics and Russian-sponsored cybertheft), Crimean takeover and incursions into Syria ad infinitum.

In most cases, the West hasn’t reacted strongly.  When coupled with the weak and embarrassing retreat from Afghanistan, Putin thought we’d likely not be opposed to a Ukrainian invasion…as I’m sure many Westerners thought.

Then, he miscalculated.  Big-time.  Different tribes/cultures look at the same set of events and draw very different cultures, in particular Western cultures vs. Russian culture.  We may not understand Russia well, but they don’t understand us at all, particularly at the higher levels.

So.  What are China’s conclusions?

First and foremost, when the West wants to, it can really bring it.  When we make the decision to resist, it’s with all the horses.  The Russian economy will be crushed, throughout our lifetime.  The rapid cohesion of American and European foreign policy, emerging power of Eastern European countries will have an impact on China’s “belt and road” initiative in Europe and its “16×1” partnership with eastern European countries. China is making their major impact on the emerging world, more so than other countries.  That will factor into their decisions.

And speaking of the emerging countries; a number of Asian countries (Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, Sri Lanka) abstained from the UN Resolution vote, as did half of Africa — including South Africa.  India, which has a tight relationship with Russia.  I think the idea of a “managed democracy” takes hold in a lot of countries.

China’s read on the U.S. is more complex. We’ve had a decades-long relationship with Taiwan, they’re aligned with us, they expressly rejected China’s authority.  What I wonder is whether China realizes that its international stance on the Ukrainian invasion is moving it from “strategic competitor” to “outright adversary.”  If there’s a breakdown in Sino-US relations, it will profoundly damage the international economy and institutions.

The China relationship with Russia is interesting.  Their militaries have cooperated in large scale exercises, and the Chinese military is organized similar to the Russian military. I imagine China must be rethinking that relationship, particularly given that they have effectively no battle experience.  They have to be wondering if they have the right training partner.  Separately, the ability of the West in general and the US in particular to detail Russia’s moves before they happened should concern China.  And lastly, the social media war (which retains a Western bias — are you aware of any Chinese media or social outlets that have a significant impact outside of China in terms of creating trusted content?).  In other words, China will struggle to tell its story.

China will continue to threaten Taiwan, and they’ve already violated their airspace, and consumed Hong Kong.  But i don’t think they’re likely to invade any time soon.

[rogpodge]

I would disagree re: Chinese influence.  Their economy is larger than Russia’s.  They’ve already gotten all of Hollywood chasing their dollars.  Have you heard of TikTok?  Bytedance is a CCP influence campaign.  They have invested heavily on Twitter bots and monitor Western media in a way that would astound most people.

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