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In the most recent NYT/Siena college poll, Trump is narrowly ahead of Harris among voters nationwide.
Most interesting parts:
- He’s more popular than he was in 2016 and 2020.
- Has an advantage in the issues. The pollers asked a two-part question: (a) what’s the most important issue to you, and (b) is Harris or Trump better, and Trump has a five-point lead on those questioned.
- Trump has the lead on the “political center” question. A majority thinks he’s at the center, and almost half say Kamala Harris is too far left.
- He’s seen as the change candidate, and 61% of the voters want a “major change from Joe Biden.”
New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August
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Also noted that Harris’ lead over Trump on the 538 site has narrowed again. She peaked at a 3.7% edge on August 23rd, and has slowly lost ground since then, now down to a 3.1% edge.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
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And finally, Bernie Sanders had an interesting quote:
Sanders (I-Vt.) claimed Harris has been recalibrating and “doing what she thinks is right in order to win the election.
“No, I don’t think she’s abandoning her ideals. I think she’s trying to be pragmatic,” Sanders told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
In other words, she merely wants to win the election. She’s still a Progressive, per the Progressive’s Progressive, Bernie Sanders.
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Also noted that Harris’ lead over Trump on the 538 site has narrowed again. She peaked at a 3.7% edge on August 23rd, and has slowly lost ground since then, now down to a 3.1% edge. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Holly cow…as of this morning, she’s now down to a 2.8% lead!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
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Now this is interesting…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
In the wake of the debate, Harris’ edge has shrunk yet again to 2.6%, despite the media’s collective intention to gaslight the voting public. For example, I went to Cal Thomas’ article: “And the winner is…” which showed a photo of Kamala Harris…but Harris called it a draw…Harris on image, and Trump on the issues.
Unemployment started the year at 3.7%, it’s climbed to 4.2%. Inflation has cooled, but was at a three generation high for 3+ years. Trump needs to lean into the facts in the next debate:
JESSE WATTERS: Kamala’s strategy was to provoke Trump and distract you from her record (msn.com)
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Nate Silver says she was hurt by a series of polls run by Democratic groups that show her tied in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Silver claims those are essentially losses, given the partisan nature of the polls.
Silver’s overall poll rates the expectations gap narrowing after the poll to 2%, Harris at 48.7%, Trump at 46.7%. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.5%, but won Wisconsin (the tipping-point state) by just 0.6%.
Silver also shows that the polling change from both last week and last month benefit Republicans in all swing states except North Carolina, and fully benefit Republicans in all the near-swing states including Florida, Texas, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
Silver also claims there’s a 20% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote. And that Harris’ raw polling averages have declined in most of the swing states since the start of the DNC.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
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Maybe not. ABC News is reporting that Harris has just a 1.5% edge over Trump. They claim that their polls are more accurate because unlike 538, they do not consider the lag effect of polls before Harris became the nominee.
Makes sense to me. And if you dive into their reasoning, they are actually skewing towards Harris, by their own admissions. One thing they don’t do is give Trump any credence to voters who prefer not to tell pollsters that they will vote for Trump…interesting that they ignore that phenomenon.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump-tied-538s-new-polling-averages/story?id=112494481
And independents have factored in that Trump is a bullshit artist (an “honest liar” per Dave Chappelle), but they really don’t like that Harris is skimpy on facts and policies:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html
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