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Really hard to tell right now. The polls have tightened some but Biden is still leading in most battleground states (albeit by thin margins). The big question for me is if any of the pollsters have figured out how to factor in the “ shy” Trump voters. I ran some back of the envelope math and if Trump is behind by the margin of error then he wins if more, then no way. For example today he takes Pennsylvania but not Wisconsin.
The mail in ballots will complicate things further. I hope the RNC is working on their mail in approach and not just complaining. The left appointed courts in key states are not cutting the republicans any slack. The legislators need to step up their game.
Finally, the Senate. RGBs death shows how crucial the senate is. A D sweep this Nov would destroy any momentum the country gathered under POTUS. And would send me to Rocky depth depression. MacSally, Gardner and Collins are toast. Montana is a tie. James in Michigan is the great hope for Republicans. I predict 51-49 R.
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gpn, as you asked…this polling operation was the undisputed champ in 2016. They called the result because they could properly determine the magnitude of the “shy” Orange voters. This year they are back at it and they have a sense of humor. They have a $10,000 bet with Nate Silver; who is closest to the final outcome. The winner picks a covid charity for the money.
They are doing senate races as well as the Presidential contest. As to the Senate. Republicans seem to be doing well in Michigan & Alabama. That would push them to 55 seats. McSally, Collins and Tillis are behind so I too think it is likely the Republicans hold the Senate. The Presidential contest will be decided in the courts. The Ginsberg passing is a material benefit if a replacement is in place pre election. I’m interested to see if the usual suspects try another “Kavanaughing” with the female nominee. I doubt it, but who knows. One thing is certain, Orange will take this choice seriously. Pat Cipollone, Jay Sekolo and others will be reviewing the records carefully.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
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And now for something completely different…a humorous aside…Bloomberg’s investments in the 2020 election cycle.
First, a billion to be seen as this year’s Rudy Guilliani? A delayed entry that positioned him to quit before his first contest. To publicize his career as a sexual predator? And now…he invests $15 million to buy votes from felons in Florida and places himself at risk for his very own felony indictment.
This politics/election stuff is harder than it looks. It’s not nearly as easy as the global media sector! The guy has won the title…the “Hunter Biden” of politics?
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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[quote quote=2694]And now for something completely different…a humorous aside…Bloomberg’s investments in the 2020 election cycle. First, a billion to be seen as this year’s Rudy Guilliani? A delayed entry that positioned him to quit before his first contest. To publicize his career as a sexual predator? And now…he invests $15 million to buy votes from felons in Florida and places himself at risk for his very own felony indictment. This politics/election stuff is harder than it looks. It’s not nearly as easy as the global media sector! The guy has won the title…the “Hunter Biden” of politics?[/quote]
Saw that this morning. Bloomberg, and TV networks allegedly, are paying felons’ fines so they can vote in Florida. 32,000 of them. . . .
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Florida and the DOJ are possibly going to prosecute Bloomberg for bribery and for subverting the election process. The money paid to the felons will also be taxable. Bloomberg made an egregious mistake when he elucidated publicly on film that his goal was to make the felons eligible to vote since the stats show 90-95% vote Democrat. On television today and last evening, several guests cited laws from both Florida and the US which on the face of it and literally Bloomberg has violated. We will see.
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Why do 90 plus percent of felons vote democrat???
Nevermind.
I posted a while back that I find it odd that minor interference by russia in a national election elicits screams of terror, but that for some reason a New York billionaire explicitly interfering in a Florida election is somehow just fine. I find it to be outside the spirit of democracy, but then again so was citizens united.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)-
I may well be mistaken here but Citizens United/Hobby Lobby were privately held family businesses. (The implications of the decision covered unions as well? However Union members could/can opt out of participation in political matters?)
Anyway let the family owners choose the vehicle to be used for their participation in the public square. Why should that right be narrowly available to families that buy seats in the Congress. See the Kennedys, the Rockefellers, the Frists…
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long
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