Voter Turnout

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    • #3882

      Trump (and I believe Rocky) has suggested there is no way Biden got 80 million votes. I don’t remember which thread that was so I’ll just say here that it was well known long before the election that voter turnout would be absolutely massive. This article from early October nailed it.

      Polling data and early-voting levels, along with turnout and registration numbers during the Trump era, all point to a surge at the polls unseen in decades, election experts say.

      Because of Trump’s impact on the electorate, political number crunchers were predicting a record turnout in 2020 before the year even began, as my colleague Ronald Brownstein reported last year. Forecasts suggested that more than 150 million Americans would vote this fall—a level that would dwarf the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016 and represent the highest voter-turnout percentage in more than a century.

      There were many such articles and forecasts long before the election. The fact that more than 150 million voted was not some “ballot stuffing” fraud. There was record turnout in primaries as well in the swing states among Democrats. Republicans in their right wing media bubble underestimate the number of Americans who were tired of the last five years of Trump’s “reality TV” shit-show.

    • #3885

      Biden`s vote totals were lower among blacks and Hispanics in every major city (and state) except Milwaukie, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Detroit and Maricopa county, Arizona (Phoenix).   Of the two states considered bellwethers for Presidential elections, Ohio and Florida, Trump won both.  Of the 20 counties that have been extremely accurate bellwethers for same for the last 140 years, Trump won 19.  Trump garnered 10 million more votes than in 2016.  Republicans gained 13 house seats.  Republicans held every Senate seat except Colorado despite having 23 seats up for grabs vs. the Dems 10.  Biden hardly campaigned.  Trump was everywhere. Yet Biden “won” because of incredibly fantastic, totally unrealistic statistical anomalies in 5 cities only.

      You do the math and search for reason.  Many statisticians have and it comes up massive fraud.  Unless denizens of just these 5 cities of the USA are such completely different beasts than the rest of us in the remaining  19,497 cities in the US who all conformed to a similar voting pattern much different than the above 5, there is no other explanation of merit.

    • #3889

      Oh, and here’s one for Mick.

      All joking aside, it’s almost Christmas.

    • #3890

      Hi Rocky,

      I’m not sure where you’re getting your facts. You might provide some sources. Anyway…

      As I’m sure you know, turnout, demographics, etc. change from election to election. It depends who’s on the ballot, how the economy is doing, and many other variables. For every statistic that looks odd to you there may be a good reason.

      Let’s take Milwaukee (I assume that’s the city you meant). In 2016 black voters in Milwaukee were historically not enthusiastic about Clinton. In 2020 the most reasonable explanation is that the numbers reverted to the mean. And, by the way, black votes overall in Milwaukee were down from 2016. So it seems unlikely they somehow swung the entire state to Trump.

      Let’s look at Philadelphia: Trump actually gained votes there and increased his margin vs. 2016 by a couple percentage points.

      Let’s look at Pennsylvania. They voted for the Democrat in six straight elections until 2016. Before the last election you have to go back to 1992 to find a Republican win. The last election was the anomaly, not this one. Exactly the same pattern for Michigan — six straight Democratic wins. Wisconsin has been even more solidly blue — until 2016 it voted for the Democrat in every election since Reagan in 1984. The more likely explanation than some phantom voter fraud is that people in those states tend to vote for Democrats and that 2016 was the anomaly.

      You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say the anomalies in 2020, if there were any, are somehow proof of voter fraud, but the anomalies in 2016 just prove that Trump was popular.

      If you’re interested in an actual analysis of why Republicans outperformed in Senate and House races, see here:

      In reality, Democrats performed about the same in all three races, but the structures through which those results were filtered — the Electoral College, the Senate seats that happened to be up and a House map biased toward Republicans — produced different results.

      “Trump was everywhere”. If you’re implying Biden didn’t campaign compared to Tump, I already debunked that. Regardless, this election was a referendum on Trump. Yes, I don’t know many people who were enthusiastic about voting for Biden, but everyone I know was enthusiastic about voting against Trump. They literally didn’t care who was on the ballot. I’ll give you an analogy: just because Duke can fill a stadium and gets high ratings on ESPN doesn’t mean America loves Duke. All the cheerleading of Dickie V. doesn’t make Duke “Americas team” anymore than Trump filling some stadiums makes him some kind of fan favorite. There are far more people that dislike Duke and Trump. They just don’t have rallies about it — though they did party in the streets across the nation when it was finally clear Biden would win enough electoral votes.

    • #3892
    • #3899

      Gummi Bear is relying on exit polls for all methods and extrapolating it to just absentee ballots. We’ve known since before the election that absentee votes would lean more heavily Biden than average.

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