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Difficult to tell. After Trump’s guilty verdict and Biden’s continuing, ongoing cognitive decline, Real Clear Politics has Trump with a 0.5% lead:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
On the other hand, Biden’s approval rating is 37.7% and disapproval rating is 56.4%. Can a President survive a net -18.7% approval rating?
Joe Biden : Approval Polls | FiveThirtyEight
Kamala Harris is almost as poorly thought of. Incidentally, watching Kamala deal with hecklers by responding “I’m talking now”…yeah, that’ll get them to stop.
Voters have real doubts about Kamala Harris as potential president, poll finds – POLITICO
At least it won’t be Newsom. California has turned into a disaster on his watch: homelessness, highest unemployment rate in the nation, housing unaffordability everywhere, worst of the immigration crisis, he’s attacked on the LEFT (of all things) by teachers, $20 min wage heading to $25, railroad to nowhere, wasteful spending, home insurance crisis, net population loss, etc.
Biden’s in trouble, but here are 5 reasons Dems won’t tap Gavin Newsom for White House run (msn.com)
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The Economist gives Trump a 66 / 34 edge in November:
A first look at our election-forecast model | Latest US politics news from The Economist
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and The Hill predicts Trump wins the general election with a 58% edge:
2024 Presidential Election Forecast | The Hill and DDHQ
Trump, GOP are early favorites for White House, Congress (thehill.com)
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Biden favored to win in the latest 538 forecast:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
NO MALARKEY
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Same link, Trump now 51, Biden 49. I imagine it will fluctuate a lot more over the coming months.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
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