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Nate Silver wrote a very intriguing article, “24 Reasons that Trump Could Win”. Basically, he lays out an excellent argument for Trump’s success vs. Harris. Worth the read.
24 reasons that Trump could win – by Nate Silver
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Right, agree with you completely. But my point is that if you’re the opposition…like Silver…the article should be “three reasons Trump could win” or “five reasons Trump could win.”
24 reasons? And he omitted 1/2 dozen of the most important, most salient reasons? He’s basically made the case for Trump nearly airtight, whether he supports Harris or not. The fact that much evidence exists, that many reasons, should seal the deal, as I think it does for non-ideological people.
Or we could just ask this gay, mixed-race man from San Francisco why he refuses to vote for Kamala Harris:
I’m gay, mixed-race and from California – but Kamala Harris is losing my vote
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Interesting take. More to the point, it’s Harris pandering to Muslims. She is losing – if she has not out right lost – the Muslim vote in Michigan.
This election is shaping up to look like the last two. No one is voting FOR either candidate, they are voting against a candidate.
Trump could win this election by the largest margin since Reagan rolled Carter if he only slightly less offensive. I can’t wait for this election to be over.
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Trump’s lead is increasing, now 52 out of 100 simulations on 538
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight
Harris’ popular vote lead is down to 1.6% on Nate Silver. Republican gains have occurred in all swing states:
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
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Harris’ popular vote lead is down to 1.8% on 538 and 1.6% on Nate Silver.
By my count, based upon all states that poll (on 538) a 0.8% or greater lead for either candidate, Trump is at 262 electoral votes, assuming he wins NC (0.9% lead), AZ (1.8% lead), GA (1.6% lead).
Trump is 0.2% ahead in PA. Harris is 0.4% ahead in WI, 0.2% ahead in NV, 0.7% ahead in MI.
If Trump wins any of those four, he surpasses the 270. If Harris wins all four, she wins.
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It’s like Reagan/Carter. Everybody was saying that was too close to call and Reagan won the popular vote by over 10% and in the EC Reagan curb-stomped him.
I don’t think 2020 was real close, but that’s water under the bridge. Since then, the Hispanic vote has moved 20 points in Trump’s favor, the African-American vote has moved 15, the Jewish and Catholic vote has moved in his direction. What voting group move toward Harris to that extent? Middle East? Asian? They were already behind the radicals and I seriously doubt there was any meaningful change.
I’m in trouble now. This line of analysis is so compelling to me, I am huuugely vulnerable to emotional collapse if Kamala wins. But my desire not to embarrass my fellow savage patriots will keep me strong. If that happens, we’ll just have to start working on “next steps”. 😇😎😛
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They want revenge for the polling / expectations of 2016. They want to build Trump up and use complacency as the explanation for the Harris win (a la Hillary never went to Wisconsin). If you want Trump to win, you should be driving to rural counties, getting relatives to vote, and running up the score like there’s no tomorrow. Detroit has already received over 40% of its ballots. Looks like the Michigan SoS was caught lying about the number of registered voters being greater than the number of voting aged citizens (according to the census). We’ll see in the numbers go over 100%.
Nearly 100K ballots cast on Wisconsin’s first day of in-person early voting
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I’m in trouble now. This line of analysis is so compelling to me, I am huuugely vulnerable to emotional collapse if Kamala wins. But my desire not to embarrass my fellow savage patriots will keep me strong. If that happens, we’ll just have to start working on “next steps”. 😇😎😛
Let me see if I can cheer you up a little bit.
First, the pseudo-bad news. It’s “pseudo” because it’s not really bad news. Drudge Report’s headline in “we-just-won-WWII”-size font is that Kamala Harris has been gaining in the polls in the last four days and just hit 50%. This was in the TIPP tracking poll, which bills itself as the most accurate during the 2020 presidential vote:
TIPP Tracking Poll Day 11: Harris Extends Slim Lead To 3 Points In Heated Race
Now, the good news. If you look at the TIPP poll’s rating on 538, it rates TIPP polls as the 120th most accurate, and among the least transparent:
Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight
The Atlas poll, which was within 0.2% of the popular vote in 2020 and 0.3% of the popular vote in 2022 and is the 22nd best poll according to 538 has Trump ahead by 50.7% to 47.6%, a 3.1% overall lead. If those numbers held, it would be the biggest landslide for the Republicans since Bush the Elder in 1988.
Atlas Poll US Elections NATIONAL – 17 Oct 2024
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