Homepage › Forums › Current Events Board › Buffett bets against the US
- This topic has 11 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 8 months ago by Neodymium60.
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August 15, 2020 at 10:43 am #2052Neodymium60Participant
Buys 21 million shares of Barrick Gold. The old miser is long known for his disdain for gold. “Going long on fear”. He has mocked investors of gold. Charlie Munger has said that if you buy gold you’re a jerk and have no place in our financial system.
But now Mr. anti-gold has gone anti-bank. It’s like betting against America with a leveraged position in gold.
My take is that if ever there was an insider’s insider, it’s Buffett. He’s no fool and knows something. But I can’t imagine Munger agreeing to this. They also dumped Goldman Sachs, Fargo, and JP Morgan.
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August 15, 2020 at 10:55 am #2053LegendKeymaster
I suspect that buffet would invest in Omaha prostitutes if the price was right. With the run up in gold I’m betting it’s more a value play than a fear play.
agree that Buffett is the insiders insider.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
August 15, 2020 at 11:09 am #2054Rocky17Participant
Sorry, gents. You are not familiar with the inner workings of Berkshire Hathaway. Buffet invests all Berkshire funds except for $15 billion dollars each for Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. They have total control over their investments as part of their deal with Buffet. Buffet would never invest in gold but would not override any investment purchase by either of them unless there were regulatory issues. One of them by the way made the original investment in Apple in 2016 and Buffet got on board big time sometime later. They now have 245 million shares of Apple and will have 980 million after the 4:1 split on August 31.
When Buffet retires, they most likely would take over all the investments under the watchful eye of CEO to be Greg Abel and insurance guru Ajit Jain.
Wells Fargo sale was a no brainer. After the illegal scams of 2015 or so, Buffet lost faith in management and they were all replaced. I would guess he has sold much more Wells stock during the last six weeks and may be totally out of it. The bank is limited via penalty to just so many reserves and subsequently is limited in how many loans they can give. Their prospects are poor for years to come. The dividend reduction by 80+% was the final straw and Buffet said aloha.
JP Morgan’s profitability is threatened by large loan exposure and low interest rates. Brian Moynihan at B of A has brilliantly resurrected B of A’s profile, reserves and profitability and has also the prospect of increasing dividends. Buffet is basically getting out of all banks except B of A, even PNC and Bank of NY Mellon which are very well run banks and piling into B of A. I suspect he may make a play to take over B of A within the next 6 months and is husbanding the funds he reaps from the sale of the other banks. He was up to 146 billion in dry powder as of June 30 and I would suspect he is close to 160 billion as we post.
Truly it is totally inaccurate and contradictory to imply, infer or state Buffet would ever bet against the long term prospects of the American economy. Not in his DNA. He DESPISES gold.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Rocky17.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Rocky17.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Rocky17.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Rocky17.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Rocky17.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Rocky17.
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August 15, 2020 at 12:26 pm #2064Neodymium60Participant
“Truly it is totally inaccurate and contradictory to imply, infer or state Buffet would ever bet against the long term prospects of the American economy. Not in his DNA. He DESPISES gold.”
The Gold Bug of Omha is betting on the collapse of the dollar. That’s kind of anti American too.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Neodymium60.
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August 15, 2020 at 11:57 am #2061rjnwmillParticipant
“You can’t fool Mother Nature”
A world awash in liquidity, falling relative interest rates weakening the dollar, supply chains evolving to less efficient/higher cost structures…inflation baby.
Gold/commodities may benefit from the rotation out of financials.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long-
August 15, 2020 at 12:23 pm #2063Neodymium60Participant
Agree with everyone. Even the prostitute angle.
No one has been talking about inflation but it’s coming. When Powell says it’s ok. Or maybe Powell has to check with Warren and Charlie first.
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August 15, 2020 at 12:20 pm #2062Rocky17Participant
Definitely, Bob but it is a pure trading play. An ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold 1000 years from now. Someday a government of a major power like China, the USA or Russia may just declare gold a worthless commodity. It is purely a fool`s errand to purchase just like bitcoin and totally dependent on the next tulip buyer greater fool. No thanks. At some point as always has happened historically, some one buys at the top of the market and is left holding the empty bag.
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August 15, 2020 at 1:52 pm #2066Rocky17Participant
Neo, you seem to really dislike Buffet. I dislike his politics but he is not betting in any fashion against the dollar’s fall in value.
Geeesh. The total of the Barrick investment is 563 million dollars which to a company with an enterprise value of nearly 600 billion dollars is 1/20 of 1% of assets. Some hedge against inflation.
If you had 1 million dollars cash sitting in your investment portfolio, it would be the same as taking $563 of it and putting it into gold. Do you consider that insignificant sum of an investment vs. your portfolio value to be a game changer, to be highly significant or just pocket change that would pay for a family`s fancy dinner in a high end restaurant?
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August 15, 2020 at 4:24 pm #2073Rocky17Participant
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August 16, 2020 at 7:46 am #2079Neodymium60Participant
Yes, yes, and yes. And I have BRKA and have had BRKB in various accounts. I confess. But I’m not a Buttett worshiper, just an observer.
Taking even a relatively small position in Barrick is an eye opener given his long history of hatred of the yellow metal. You say that others made the call. Legend say it’s just a value play. What’s next, Bitcoin? Don’t forget what Warren buys others will follow. Same idea as the Soros theory of reflexivity. Up up and away.
If your going to tell me Barrick is a play against fiat policy that’s different. That’s political and Buffett has become very political. Oh by the way, Buffett wants to raise my taxes too. That’s extremely political.
Maybe we can just take Buffett at his word in his own words. “Gold is a way of going long against fear”…from that position, I guess his team is hedging against fear. That’s what I think.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Neodymium60.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Neodymium60.
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August 16, 2020 at 8:43 am #2082Rocky17Participant
My day was just ruined. I read where Soros also is investing in Bank of America. Two of the 4 richest left wingers in the country who are savvy and renowned investors both are buying B of A. What do they know that we do not? Conversely, Soros is buying Wells Fargo while Buffet is selling.
- This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Rocky17.
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August 16, 2020 at 9:23 am #2083Neodymium60Participant
Now that is interesting. B of A will be the last bank standing?
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