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Harris should receive her biggest boost just after the DNC. Then, if Trump handles it correctly, her polls should experience a long, slow slide to Election Day.
Kamala Harris Suffers Triple Polling Blow Before DNC Starts
270 to win is fairly cautious, they don’t change lightly. They currently project 235 electoral votes for Trump, 226 electoral votes for Harris and 77 as a tossup. They list six swing states: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan.
2024 Presidential Election Consensus Forecast – 270toWin
538/Real Clear Politics lists Harris with a 2.7% national lead across all polls. They list Trump with a lead in AZ (1%) and GA (4%); and Harris with leads in PA (1%), MI (7%), WI (6%), and NV (6%).
President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
CNN largely feels the same way, except believes that North Carolina is also a swing state:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/18/politics/presidential-election-270-electoral-votes/index.html
Audaces fortuna iuvat
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