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Hey, let’s have a little fun. What are your election predictions?
Mine:
Trump wins EC in a landslide and stuns with a win in Michigan or Minnesota.
Kamala wins the popular vote by 2 – 3 million votes but ONLY because of California.
The left questions the legitimacy of the outcome, sues to obstruct, holds a “stop the steal” rally in DC as a political stunt, leading to real riots and fires across the country, and they blame Trump. Basically they run the same play as Trump did in 2020, and Hillary did in 2016, except they mean it.
The stock market tanks after the election (regardless of winner, but maybe more w/ Trump’s win because the fed will start to tighten again).
Trump’s presidencies are re-evaluated by historians in 20 years, considered significantly more peaceful and prosperous than insider administrations. The Democrats have to re-center their constituencies. Woke gets de-emphasized.
What you got?
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
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These comments are related strictly to the Presidential election from the point of view of a registered Independent.
Generally speaking, I’m smelling desperation on the part of the Democrats. I think they’re broadly concerned that Harris doesn’t have the goods, and that voters instinctively realize that, even undereducated American voters.
They’re right. That said, here’s what I see as the results, assuming Trump’s support is undercounted by 2% or so:
Harris wins CA, WA, OR, CO, NM, MN, IL, NY, VT, NH, MA, CT, RI, three from ME, VA, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI and one delegate from NE.
Trump wins ID, MT, WY, AK, UT, ND, SD, four from NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MO, IA, MS, AL, TN, FL, SC, TN, KY, IN, OH, WV and one delegate from ME.
That’s 226 for Harris, 219 for Trump.
That leaves NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC and GA, seven battleground states. Right now, they’re so close that if the pollsters have undercounted Trump’s popularity, I suspect he wins all seven, leaving him with 312 electoral votes. If pollsters are accurate, Trump still wins, but much closer.
I think Trump is invulnerable to an October surprise. Everything is known about him. Harris, on the other hand, is not invulnerable to an October surprise. The only upside potential I see for Harris is if she hits an absolute home run on Rogan’s show and converts 300,000 males. Which could happen, btw, if she charms Rogan. But she doesn’t really have the “charm” gene, same as Hillary. She’s a career prosecutor, with all that implies. “Charm” is N/A, which is odd for a career politician. Newsom has it, so does Biden, Rubio, Graham, Tulsi, even Whitmer, Shapiro has it in spades, Schumer has it. Even Bernie and Warren have it, a little bit. There are those that don’t. AOC has zero charm. Adam Schiff. Ted Cruz. But it’s important on the national stage, particularly in Woke America. Lack of charm makes you unlikeable. Bad Man Orange has lots of charm. The Candidate of Joy has a cackle, but no charm, not really.
The Mask Of Zorro 1998 DVDRip charm scene
I think undecideds break hard and late for Trump. Four years of mismanagement, four years of the Biden con, etc. Kamala will win the popular vote by 2 mms. to 2.5 mms. but will lose the electoral college vote by nearly 100 if pollsters are wrong about Trump and by 15 if pollsters are right about Trump.
BTW, Harris’ lead is down to 1.8 points in the 538 presidential poll. Two months ago, she was ahead by 3.7, one month ago it was 2.8…tick, tick, tick…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Audaces fortuna iuvat
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Hard not to call this a Red Wave. Gained seats in the Senate, House and won 8 gubernatorial elections.
Interesting comparison to 2020.
81M for Biden, 74M for Trump.
2024,
72M for Trump and 67M for Harris. Meaning nothing, it’s odd the difference in Bidens and Harris’s total is roughly the same number of votes Biden received in the this years primary.
More than curious is almost 15M voters who voted for Biden chose to sit this one out. 15M? Harris couldn’t even rally enough support from Biden’s base to win? How does that happen?
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More than curious is almost 15M voters who voted for Biden chose to sit this one out. 15M? Harris couldn’t even rally enough support from Biden’s base to win? How does that happen?
Did you hear about the year that 7 million American children disappeared? That’s right, 7 million American children. But it wasn’t a scandal. It wasn’t a tragedy. What happened was, the Internal Revenue Service mandated that taxpayers listing dependents had to list both the dependent and their Social Security number. In other words, they had to prove that they had those dependents.
And not too surprisingly, 7 million American dependents vanished.
Why? Occam’s Razor. Simplest explanation. People cheated.
Now let’s take Beeg Dawg’s excellent question. What happened to 15 million votes? Well, a small part of the answer is that some votes are still being counted. The 2020 election had 157,780,079 votes which was an astounding 16.09% increase over the 135,909,066 cast in the 2016 election.
Why was this astounding? Because the American population only increased 2.61% in that time period, from 323.1 mms. to 331.5 mms.
From 2020 to 2024, the U. S. population only increased 1.77%, from 331.5 mms. to 337.4 mms. Yet the total vote decreased from 157,780,079 to 143,044,208, a 9.34% decrease.
How could that possibly be?
Well, let’s look at one other interesting fact. 14 states and DC do not require any form of voter ID, including CA, OR, NV, MN, IL, PA, NY, NJ, MA, VT, ME, NM, HI and DC. Notice anything interesting? Kamala Harris won 13 of the 14, all but NV.
Here are the states where photo ID are required: WI, IN, OH, NC, SC, GA, TN, MS, AK, MO, TX, KS. All won by Donald Trump.
There are three states where ID is required to vote, but not photo ID: ND, WY and AZ. All won by Trump (assuming Trump wins AZ).
Here are the states where ID is requested but not required to vote: WA, ID, MT, UT, CO, OK, IA, SD, MI, NH, CT, RI, FL, AL, LA, WV, KY, VA, DE. A mix of mainly Trump wins and a few Harris wins.
Here’s the map, see for yourself. Voting in the 2024 election? You’ll need an ID in these states.
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Thanks Mick. A quick anecdote from Tuesday, I voted in person in CA, and had to select my name from a computer screen for the paperwork. Proud to see my daughter’s name below mine, as she turned 18 two weeks ago. Surprised to see my mom’s name below my daughters. Sadly my mom died 5 years ago, but apparently can still vote . . . .
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I didn’t know about the IRS story. That’s crazy.
the same thing would happen if ID we’re to be checked across all states. Then it would be called vote suppression and Jim Crow 2.5 and such.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
The current popular vote for Trump is 74.3 million. He had 74.2 million in 2020, about the same.
The current popular vote count for Kamala Harris is 70.4 million, against Joe Biden’s 81.2 million. So it’s still 10.8 million shy. And there are votes still to be counted. So we’ll see what the final number is.
Audaces fortuna iuvat
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