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No one likes Silver’s commentary…the polls, they can put up with. Silver’s polls show Harris with a slight lead over Trump, including in the battleground states.
Silver, unlike 538 and others, factors into account that Trump almost always outperforms the polls due to the “Trump unlikeability effect” … in which people being polled don’t admit to voting for Trump.
And the media-driven polls, in it to win it for Harris, don’t like any media that has the temerity to issue caution.
I’m reading lots of Dem-supported media opining that Harris has a chance to win in Alaska or Iowa or any number of other red states. But 270 to win, a collective poll site that doesn’t change much, still has the same seven states in play…and doesn’t have a single other state listed as “leans”…they’re all either “Safe” or “Likely”. They added North Carolina last month. They should be fine.
2024 Presidential Election Consensus Forecast – 270toWin
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This morning, Nate Silver touts Harris’ great day at the polls. Good headline. Further down, we read it’s a Quinnipiac poll. After that:
Silver noted that while Quinnipiac polls “have been Democratic-leaning in recent years,” it is still highly rated, and several other surveys in recent days have shown positive signs for Harris.
Nate Silver Touts Kamala Harris’ ‘Very Good Day’ of Polls (msn.com)
Gallup poll came out and had a different result. Trump’s favorability rating increased 5%:
Donald Trump’s Ratings Peak Since Kamala Harris Entered Race: New Poll (msn.com)
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Harris now favored to win.
https://x.com/AllanLichtman/status/1839674969891946964
58% probability of a Harris win.
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The theory behind this Gallup poll is that whichever party is seen as the leader on the most important problem (or two) facing the country ends up in the White House. It’s been that way, without fail, since 1948. If it were Harris, it would be the first time in 20 presidential elections since WWII to counter the phenomenon:
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And yet today, Newsweek has reported that Nate Silver stated that Trump has pulled ahead in Michigan (by 3.4%) and Pennsylvania (by 2.9%). If that’s actually true…
Nate Silver’s Latest Projection Shows Key Swing State Shifts (msn.com)
Also, he just got the edge in North Carolina…
Donald Trump Gets Edge in North Carolina as Democrats Lose 7% of Voters (msn.com)
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Along those lines…
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I think voters are figuring out that Kamala Harris is woefully unprepared and temperamentally unsuited to the Presidency, at least in PA.
Kamala Harris Loses Advantage in Critical Battleground State
More on PA. Older voters don’t like her:
Poll shows a tight race in Pennsylvania, with warning signs for Harris among older voters (msn.com)
BTW, we’ve all read about the devastating effects of Helene and the impact it has had in Blue and swing states, the slow to nonexistent reaction by FEMA and the fact that neither Biden nor Harris has visited the region. The hurricane’s aftermath is going to persist long after the election…and it’s not a good look that Biden clearly prefers the beach:
Biden defends staying at beach as Hurricane Helene struck Southeast (msn.com)
That doesn’t even include the dockworkers’ strike:
Or the fact that liberal SNL is mocking the biased debates…
Liberal ‘SNL’ takes swipe at ABC’s ‘biased’ presidential debate in cold open: ‘Duh’ (msn.com)
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Trump now has lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. A month ago, KH led in those states.
The forecast shows that while Harris has the lead in four of the swing states—Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania—her lead has decreased in 3 of those states, while Trump’s share of the vote has grown.
For example, on September 2, Harris was leading Trump by 0.7 points in Pennsylvania, on 48.2 percent to Trump’s 47.5 percent. However, her lead now stands at 0.6 points, with 48.9 percent of the vote to Trump’s 48.3 percent.
Donald Trump Flips Three Swing States in His Favor (msn.com)
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Trafalgar Group survey on likely voters in Michigan has Trump at 46.9%, Harris at 44.7%.
Of note, the demographics of the survey were:
Registered Democrats, 35.9%
Registered Republicans, 31.5%
Independent voters, 32.6%
Trump holds 2-point lead over Harris in battleground Michigan: Survey (msn.com)
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Trump, 1 point lead in Michigan
Donald Trump Takes Lead in Michigan: New Poll (msn.com)
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According to Nate Silver, Harris leads in swing states PA, MI, WI and NV. Trump leads in AZ, GA and NC.
At the same time, the polls are moving in Trump’s direction in AZ, PA, GA, MI, and WI and the trend is going Harris’ way in NV and NC.
Nate Silver’s Swing State Forecast Shows New Movement
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