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The most accurate poll in both 2020 and 2024 was AtlasIntel.
In 2024, AtlasIntel concluded their final pre-Presidential election poll with a 1.5% disparity between Trump and Harris at 49.8% vs. 48.3%. Their margins were accurate in Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina. British polling firm JL Partners was also very accurate and predicted that Trump would win the popular vote. They claim their secret is to focus on polling groups with 90 minute discussions versus 10 minute polling calls.
Who Called the Election Right and Who Got It Wrong? – Newsweek
The actual disparity was Trump at 50.0% vs. Harris at 48.4%, a 1.6% disparity.
Atlas Poll US Elections National – 02 Nov 2024
I had read that part of AtlasIntel’s secret sauce, polling-wise, is that they would ask voters the question “Who do you think your neighbor is voting for?”
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