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Level setting:
- House: Democrats ~91% on both prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket; traders project around 235–238 seats, 20 above the 218 majority.
- Senate: Democrats ~65% on Kalshi and ~67% on Polymarket; projected 52 seats.
- Full sweep: 63%. Democratic House with Republican Senate: 29%. Republican sweep: 9%.
- Trend: the sweep probability has climbed from 39% in February to the mid-60s now. The Senate flipped from Republican-favored to a coin flip in the spring, during the Iran war, and has drifted toward Democrats since.
Polls and Models:
- Generic ballot: Democrats ahead by roughly 8–9.5 points depending on the average — Silver +9.1 (+9.6 among likely voters), Decision Desk +8.1, FiftyPlusOne +9. Silver’s model needs about a 4-point lead for the House given the new maps, and a 5–6 point lead for the Senate, so the current margin clears both.
- Models: Silver gives Democrats 95% House / 75% Senate; Decision Desk 80% House / 57% Senate; Poliwave 87% / 57%. Models are a bit more cautious than markets on the House and roughly aligned on the Senate.
- Trump’s net approval is around −23.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
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