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Two more items on AOC…
She tried to bash Trump for kidnapping a head of state “just because the nation is south of the equator.” Umm…Venezuela is north of the equator there, Ms. Geography Major.
She tried to fact-check Rubio on American cowboys coming from Spain…claiming the first cowboys were Mexican and Black. Actually, Rubio was right…here’s the clean lineage:
- Spain brought the key ingredients to the Americas in the 1500s: horses, cattle, ranching laws, and horsemanship (much of it shaped by Iberian traditions).
- In New Spain (Mexico and the Spanish borderlands—Texas, New Mexico, California, etc.), ranch work evolved into the vaquero system (from vaca, “cow”).
- Those vaqueros were the first true “cowboy-style” cattle workers in North America, and they were often Mexican/Spanish-colonial people, including mestizo and Indigenous vaqueros, and later Black and Indigenous cowhands as the cattle economy spread.
- The iconic U.S. cowboy of the 1800s borrowed a ton directly from that vaquero world: lasso/rope work, saddles, chaps (from chaparreras), spurs, branding practices, and even a bunch of vocabulary.
So: the roots are Spanish (through colonial Mexico), the first cowboy culture in North America was vaquero, and the American cowboy is essentially a later remix that spread north and east from that base.
Zohran is inheriting a $12 billion city deficit in a city which has the highest taxes in the country. Can’t wait to see how he addresses it. NYC faces $12B budget deficit, drawing comparison to 2008 financial crisis – as Zohran Mamdani uses dire forecast to push taxing the rich His comptroller said that overwhelming spending is the problem, so of course Mamdani wants to increase taxes on the rich…
Budget deficit is currently down to $5.4 billion. Mamdani has planned a 9.5% property tax increase along with a $1 billion withdrawal from the city’s reserve funds. State law requires a balanced budget. Higher-than-expected tax revenues from the COVID era are now gone, and the generous federal aid has (as you might expect) vanished.
Mamdani has also called for raising taxes on corporations and wealthy New Yorkers to fund his expansion of city services.
Katie Porter polling second behind…Eric Swalwell. I’m assuming that Swalwell has ditched the Chinese spy he was squiring.
Katie Porter’s chances of winning California primary: Poll
- Swalwell, 23%
- Porter, 14% of Democratic votes, 10% overall
- Tom Steyer, 12%
- Xavier Becerra, 6%.
Republican Steve Hilton has 38% of Republican vote, Chad Bianco has 37%.
And the list gets smaller! Four businesses have or will return to their former locations. New
closingsopenings in bold:Retailers are returning to Union Square – in the same locations where they closed
- 24-Hour Fitness
- 7-Eleven
- A Miner Miracle Shop
- Abercrombie & Fitch
- Adidas
- Agent Provocateur
- Aldo
- Alessi
- Alexander McQueen
- AllSaints
- Amazon Go
- American Eagle Outfitters
- Amy Kuschel Bride
- Anthropologie
- Archive
- Arc’teryx
- Armani Exchange
- AT&T
- Athleta
- Babette
- Banana Republic
- Bank of America (brand on 1 Market Street)
- Barneys New York
- Bed Bath & Beyond
- Benefit
- Blondie’s Pizza (relocated)
- Bloom Room, The
- Bloomingdale’s
- Bristol Farm
- Brooks Brothers
- Bucherer / Rolex
- Burke Williams Spa
- California Girl Jewelry
- Camper Shoes
- CB2
- Charley’s Cheesesteaks
- Christian Louboutin
- Century Theaters
- Cinemark Multiplex
- Coach
- Coco Republic Furniture
- Cole Haan
- Container Store, The
- Crate & Barrel
- Crunch Gym
- Cuyana
- CVS Pharmacy
- Denny’s
- Diana Slavin
- Diesel
- Disney Store
- Doc Martens
- DSW/Designer Shoe Warehouse
- Ecco
- eDressit
- Ethos
- Express
- Fabric Outlet
- Façonnable
- Farinelli Decorative Arts
- Fires of Brazil Express
- First Republic Bank
- Forever 21
- Forum
- Gallery of Jewels
- GameStop
- Gap, The
- Good Vibrations
- Goorin Brothers
- Green Arcade Bookstore
- G-Star
- H&M
- Harputs
- Hollister
- Huntington
- Icebreaker
- In-N-Out Burger
- It’Sugar
- IWC Schaffhausen
- Izzy & Wooks
- J. Crew
- Jamba Juice
- Jeffrey’s Toys
- Jimmy Choo
- Jimmy Choo Men’s
- Jin Wang Bridal
- Jins Eyewear
- John Varvatos
- Johnny Was
- Jos. A. Bank Clothier
- Journeys
- Jug Shop
- Kate Spade
- Klaus Murer Swiss Jeweler
- Kohl’s (27 closings nationwide)
- KPMG – Leaving their $400 million name building
- L’Occitane
- La Cocina
- La Perla
- Lacoste
- Lego Stores
- Lily Samii Collection
- Longchamp
- Lucky Brand
- Lululemon
- Lush
- Madewell
- Makeshop by Brit + Co.
- Margaret O’Leary
- Marlowe
- Marmot
- Marni
- Marshall’s
- Mashaallah Halal Pakistani Food
- MCM Worldwide
- McDonald’s (closed after 30 years)
- MedMen
- Mephisto
- Merrell
- Michael Kors
- Mija Cochinita
- Milk Tee
- Miller & Lux Provisions (Tyler Florence owner of Wayfare Tavern closed this patisserie and sister rotisserie cafe. SF gave him a grant of $440k just two years ago to open it)
- New Balance
- Nordstrom – Closing all San Francisco stores, not just Union Square
- Nordstrom Rack
- North Face
- Oak & Fort
- Oakley
- Office Depot
- Old Navy
- Omega
- Ordinary, The | DECIEM
- Panda Express
- Panerai
- Paper Source
- Peet’s
- Psycho Bunny
- Puma
- Rae | Costumes
- Ray Ban
- Razer Computer
- RealReal, The
- Richemont
- Ria’s Shoes
- Rims & Goggles
- Rolex
- Saks Fifth Avenue
- Saks Off Fifth
- Samsonite
- San Francisco Town Centre
- Sarku Japan
- Scotch & Soda
- See’s Candies
- Sentiero
- Sephora
- Shake Shack
- Shreve & Company Jewelers
- Starbuck’s (Two closings three more by 2025)
- Steve Madden
- Subway
- Sunglass Hut
- Taco Bell
- Tad’s Steakhouse
- Target
- Ted Baker
- The Body Shop
- Theory
- Thomas Pink
- Tina’s Jewelry
- T-Mobile
- Tourbillon Boutique
- TSE
- TUMI
- Umai Savory Hot Dogs
- Uniqlo
- V Boutique
- Vans
- Veo Optics
- Vilebrequin
- Walgreen’s (closed nine SF stores between 2021 and 2024, twelve more closed in February 2025, two were in Union Square)
- Warby Parker
- Westfield Mall
- Wetzel’s Pretzels
- Whole Foods
- Williams Sonoma
- Wolford
- World of Charms
- Yotel
- Zadig & Voltaire
- Zara
- Zumiez
According to this article, AOC’s standing stayed about the same after her abortive appearance at the security conference:
How AOC’s presidential odds stand after Munich appearances
In other words, she’s still way behind Newsom for the nomination.
Companies that have left, or announced plans to leave, including major divisions, since Newsom became Governor. More than $1 trillion in annual sales:
AECOM CBRE Group, Inc. Chevron Corporation Hewlett Packard Enterprise In-N-Out Burger John Paul Mitchell Systems (Paul Mitchell) McKesson Corporation Nestle USA Oracle Corporation Palantir Technologies Public Storage Realtor.com (Move, Inc.) SpaceX Tesla, Inc. The Charles Schwab Corporation Valero Energy Corporation Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management (division) X (formerly Twitter) I like virtually all of Bessent’s positions. I like how he’s focused on a weakened working class. I’m not wild about crypto for a variety of reasons, but I understand why he has to address it. I generally support political moderates who are economic realists.
Harvard / HarrisX / CAPS polled 2,000 registered voters last week. Interesting outcomes:
Kamala Harris leading Newsom by a lot, 39% to 30%. AOC is 12%%, Shapiro 9%, JB Pritzker 7%, 4% say someone else
Just as a reminder, should Kama Harris actually get the nomination, here are a list of 27 flip-flops and prior unpopular positions that she refused to discuss during her presidential campaign:
Anti Fracking Anti border wall Pro dreamer citizenship Ban plastic straws Abolish ICE Mandatory Gun Buyback Eliminate private health insurance Taxpayer funded gender election surgery for prisoners Decriminalize unauthorized border crossings Defund ICE Single payer health care / Medicare for all increase taxes on rich Defund the police Pro open-to-the-press Fine companies that have pay gaps between genders Boost adoption of electric vehicles Allow 16 year olds and prisoners to vote Legalize consensual sex work Benefits for undocumented immigrants (DLs, free tuition at state U’s.) Federal jobs guarantee Pro Green New Deal Anti death penalty Anti / abolish cash bail Anti-American pipeline Supported packing the Supreme Court Donate bail to Minneapolis rioters Against off shore drilling Halle Berry says ‘No to Newsom’ because he ignores women and vetoed menopause legislation.
Harvard / HarrisX / CAPS polled 2,000 registered voters last week. Interesting outcomes:
- Kamala Harris leading Newsom by a lot, 39% to 30%. AOC is 12%%, Shapiro 9%, JB Pritzker 7%, 4% say someone else.
- JD Vance at 53%, Trump Jr. at 21%, Rubio at 17%, Tucker Carlson 5%, 3% say someone else.
Favorability ratings:
- JD Vance, 38%
- Rubio 34%
- Newsom, 32%
- AOC, 32%
- Tucker Carlson, 27%
New poll shows top 2028 presidential candidates
More interesting points, worth a look:
It’ll be interesting to watch what happens to Seattle. The people, in their infinite wisdom, elected a nincompoop with no legislative experience or acumen. Seattle’s budget deficit in 2027 is projected to exceed $127 million, and she’s made a lot of promises.
To get this link, I had to sign up for “Equity and Inclusion” from the Seattle Times., so…
Seattle Mayor Wilson shakes up department leadership | The Seattle Times
Don’t count on cost savings. The Seattle City Council and outgoing mayor didn’t do her any favors. They want to limit Wilson’s options. They’ve already proposed significant new revenue sources, including a “public safety” sales tax increase, and more than doubling the Families, Education, Preschool and Promise Levy.
The 2026 budget is balanced, but relies on a one-time $141 million fund balance left over from 2025 and a permanent assumed $10 million underspend that has (not suprisingly) been referred to as “inherently unsustainable.”
I don’t want her to fail, but I just don’t see how she’s going to avoid it.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist says that states representing 1/3rd of U.S. GDP (including Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, and Montana) are at high risk of recession. Says that California, Alaska, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico will tread water. Idaho, Utah and Arizona should continue to expand. California and New York will be the bellwether states:
One woman, Janet Napolitano (easily my second-least favorite SCU alum after Gavin Newsom) is one of those Progressives who can’t hallucinate enough. She knew the SAT / ACT scores were useful and predictive. And she killed it anyway. It was plainly and solely an ideological move and it resulted in a legion of unqualified, unprepared students.
Cal wasn’t the only one. The list of universities that suspended or put a moratorium on ACTs/SATs included MIT, CalTech, Dartmouth, Brown, Yale, Harvard, Penn, Princeton, and yes, Stanford among hundreds of others. Same was true at the great public university systems, not just UC, but Ohio State, Purdue, Texas, Miami, Georgia, etc.
Incidentally…I suspect that one of the reasons they eliminated the test was because of the gender disparity. Men do better than women overall, but in particular in the higher scores. 9% of all men scored over 1400 whereas just 6% of all women scored over 400. 17% of men scored between 1200 and 1390, whereas just 16% of women scored in that range. Below 1200, women take over until 800, then men again outnumber women, 19% to 17%. Males at the tails, as it were:
2024 Total Group SAT Suite of Assessments Annual Report
By the way, you can’t find granular SAT score data by gender any more. The latest I could find was from 2012, where 100k women more than men took the SAT, but the number of men with perfect 1600 scores dwarfed the women who had 1600s. Same at 1590. And 1580. And 1570. And so on, all the way down to 1170 (74th percentile) when women outnumbered men, and did so at every decile until the very lowest scores, in which men outnumbered women again.
Along those lines, even though Mayor Lurie wants to promote building more small apartment buildings in San Francisco, few will be built, chiefly because of the net 17.5% taxes that have to be paid on new construction.
Interesting video. In 2024, there were 113,533 business starts in California with 97,146 closures, netting out at a positive 16,387. I wouldn’t make too much of that because (a) there’s not a lot of red tape for starts of small businesses and (b) fewer closed businesses formally report than actually close.
Still, CA’s average business start rates are lower than NY, and considerably lower than TX
If you’re interested in the regulatory sludge that slows down, eliminates, and drives business out of California, you might consider the PPIC, Public Policy Institute of California. It is a nonpartisan research arm.
Business Regulation and Business Starts in California – Public Policy Institute of California
The basics? CA is not an outliner in the quantity of business regulations but it is an extreme outlier with respect to the number of constrains embedded in those regulations. Not surprising.
CA businesses, on average, are subject to eight regulations per industry, close to the median for all states. But with respect to specific regulatory constraints, the average CA business is subject to 3,737 constraints. The median across states is 1,400.
If you go on the link, check out Figure 5, particularly the Industry/Commerce link. Your jaw will literally drop.
Welcome to Universal University – one of my more insightful blog posts, if I do say so myself. On my latest commute to South Pasadena, the Uber driver, a young guy under 30, told me he was leaving Uber at the end of the month to take a job in Texas flying drones over a wind farm, at about $20,000 a month. He learned the skills necessary completely on line. Of course that was not all. He had to pass a credentialing test, and there is the rub. Remove diploma, and you are going to have to have some really serious objective examinations in their place. Age, gender, race considerations will not apply, as the exams will be online and completely objective.
Very impressive, GR.
I took marketing courses at Northwestern in 2012. Easily the best class was taught by Prof. Mohanbir Sawhney. Exceptional instructor. IIT grad, also Penn M.A. and PhD. He had essentially the same take that you did. He said that the first Top 20 University that understands that they could reach 1000x more students via digital lecture will “win” the war among the top universities.
