[Mick]

BYT, you might appreciate this billionaire’s take. He says that the Democrats only ever call him for money. But one politician called to get his opinion.

Guess which one?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vLWqo7M4g-4?feature=share

[Mick]

Kimmel can say whatever he wants. He can go on the road and do standup, he can write. etc. He’s not in jail, he hasn’t been silenced. He as fired from his show, which lost a ton of money and the company made a decision to cut them loose.

On the other hand, if you complain against DEI policies at work, like my brother in law did…you get fired.

So again…spare me.

[Mick]

Mick. Democrats have voted almost unanimously to limit money in politics over many congressional bills. I detailed that in another thread. Republicans, on the other hand, have blocked these efforts almost unanimously. But Democrats aren’t going to unilaterally disarm. i would be thrilled to get Soros and any other rich Democratic donors to fuck off. But until Republicans agree to that, as well, then sorry, not sorry. your outrage should be at all the conservatives who blocked the efforts to get money out of politics. But you dutifully vote for them every cycle and spend your time defending them. So forgive me if I’m not that sympathetic about Soros donating to something you don’t like.

(a) You are incorrect and (b) you have no idea how I vote and (c) Biden/Harris had considerably more billionaires backing them than backed Donald Trump; in fact,  by nearly a 2:1 margin. So spare me…Democrats drink deeply at that well.

Face it: the Democrats are owned by Wall Street, Hollywood, Silicon Valley, Big Media, Big Law and Big Academia. And it is well known that Kamala Harris both outraised and outspent Donald Trump.  In other words, the Rich Kids and the Cool Kids back Democrats. So spare me.

I will still vote for both Democrats and Republicans as a registered independent since 2004.

[Mick]

YouGov poll has Newsom at 23%, Harris at 18%, 8% at — get this, no misprint, I’m not lying — AOC.

One in 12 poll respondents think AOC’s the best choice. The good news — for Americans — is that she’s rumored to be thinking more about taking over for Chuck Shumer as NY Senator.

AOC chances of winning in 2028 as report says she’s weighing run

[Mick]

Ugh. At this point, I would rather the Fed increase interest rates, force some fiscal responsibility, and crash everything to reset the economy. Too much rate manipulation has created so many bubbles, so much bad debt, and stealth inflation that it may be time to start over. Yes, there will be short term pain, but it will be better for the long term.

I tend to agree with you. Might be time for the Volcker remedy. On the other hand, this society, as a whole, will need a lot of financing if it really intends to reshore manufacturing, eliminate 20% of all jobs because of artificial intelligence, buy and sell houses, make sure old and decrepit people don’t just die, etc.

I think high rates are here to stay.

[Mick]

Interesting poll on Proposition 50. Basically, 60% want independent commission drawing districts. From the polling memo:

Voters Trust the Commission, Not the Politicians
• Six-in-ten voters support using an independent commission to draw the congressional district maps (61% support, 20% oppose) with 42% saying they strongly support the independent commission.
• A plurality of Republicans (43-32%) and three quarters of Democrats (74-11%) and more than half of Independent voters (58-26%) support the independent commission.
• 49% oppose authorizing the state legislature to draw the congressional district maps (40% support).
• When contextualized as an effort by Governor Newsom in response to Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas, Newsom’s proposal reaches 52% support.
• Testing the Proposition 50 language, we find support at 54% Yes and 29% No, while 17% are undecided.
• 15% of voters who oppose Newsom’s contextualized efforts mistakenly vote Yes on Proposition 50, highlighting voter confusion related to the ballot language.

H23262-USJF-CA-Memo-v1.pdf

[Mick]

Is AI used by the BLS to create the Jobs reports?

Not speaking ironically, but…yes, it actually does.

[Mick]

The killer is caught. Tyler Robinson.

Charlie Kirk Shooting Suspect Tyler Robinson: What We Know

The country is broken.

Choose your America: In the aftermath of the Kirk slaying, a snapshot of a fractured nation

[Mick]

Charlie Kirk was the kind of political expert that I really admired. Would discourse with anyone, left or right. Never lost his cool. Never got dragged down to their level. Wasn’t intimidated by overly educated people (the opposite, really). And his discussions were always logical, and exposed the illogical fallacies of the left.

So, of course, the Left needed to eliminate this sane, productive, calm, religious, pro-American man. Of course.

[Mick]

Non-donor companies find California a bad place to do business, so says the executive chairman of the recently bankrupt Bed, Bath and Beyond:

“California has created one of the most overregulated, expensive, and risky environments for businesses in America,” executive chairman Marcus Lemonis said in a statement. He pointed to what he described as “higher taxes, higher fees, higher wages.

Bed Bath & Beyond chairman calls California ‘overregulated, expensive, and risky’ — and Gavin Newsom hits back

You have to like Newsom’s response, echoing Hillary Clinton’s response when she was asked about the burden her health care program would place on small business: “I can’t be responsible for every undercapitalized business in America” she said.

Here’s Newsom’s response: “After their bankruptcy and closure of every store, like most Americans, we thought Bed Bath & Beyond no longer existed. We wish them well in their efforts to become relevant again as they try to open a 2nd store.”

Nicely tone deaf. And this is the guy whose policies helped eviscerate Union Square in San Francisco, once the busiest retail center on the west coast.

[Mick]

Here’s the most important graph, covering 70 years of Federal Fund rate movement against unemployment.:

Inflation is the gold line, Fed Funds rate the blue line.

I’d forgotten how high interest rates were in the Reagan era. Also forgot how difficult it was to get a mortgage in 1989 to buy my first place. Haven’t forgotten the subterranean Fed Funds rates gifted to Obama, a sloppy wet kiss from the Fed of the era.

 

[Mick]

You’re right. It must really gall Trump that Obama had 0.25% interest rates, literally the lowest they could go, for seven of Obama’s eight years.

I think the cuts should be more significant than 0.25% for this reason alone:

Not only is the economy obviously stalling, but the effects of artificial intelligence have taken hold for the past year or two…and will only accelerate.

‘Market psychology has shifted’: The only question now is how far and how fast the Fed will go

[Mick]

As of today, here is the percentage of registered voters by party in California:

1. Democrats, 45.27%
2. Republicans, 25.22%
3. Independents, 22.34%
4. Minor parties, 7.17%

There are 52 seats allocated to California in the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. Here is the distribution by party:

1. Democrats, 43 seats, 82.7%
2. Republicans, 9 seats, 17.3%

As you know, that paragon of political virtue, Governor Newsom thinks that having nearly twice as much political representation by his party in Congress isn’t enough. Now he wants more, and he wants to do it away from the independent districting commission in California. And his attorney general, Rob Bonta, says there is a legal path to do so through a special election: California attorney general says ‘legal pathway’ exists to redraw congressional maps In 2008, voters took the power away from California lawmakers to create an independent, citizen-led redistricting commission to avoid what Newsom wants to do. Governor Hochul (D-NY) says “all’s fair in love and war.” Instead of calling out Newsom on his perfidy, the San Francisco Chronicle warns that he has a tight timeline with roadblocks. Of course. Newsom faces a tight timeline to redistrict California. Here are the roadblocks

I was at a wedding this weekend in Santa Barbara. My college roommate (godfather to my son and vice versa) has a son who married into a Pacific Palisades family of recently-former Democrats.

Yes, there are still a lot of Democrats in this state, and Democrat-leaning independents. But watching two cities burn down and watching the Democrats do literally everything they can to prevent rebuilding Pacific Palisades is simply…extraordinary. That goes for demanding low-income housing to be built in PP, to a mandated foundational rise of 3-4 feet on the presumption that PP is a flood zone (I don’t think too much water is PP’s problem) to demanding new environmental impact reports and more.

Pacific Palisades will be like La Haina. The fire was more than two years ago, on August 8, 2023. 2,000+ homes were destroyed (3% of all Maui’s houses). By early 2025, only two homes had been rebuilt, with a third home outside of LaHaina destroyed by the fire. As of August 8, 2025, exactly two years after the fire, only 45 houses had been rebuilt, so just over 2% of all destroyed homes.

The Democrats have had an extraordinarily bad impact on this state. When will the Independents understand how they’ve dragged us down?

[Mick]

Is the Fed too late with its interest rate cuts? On the one hand, it’s never too late. On the other hand, they should have cut rates a long, long time ago, dating back to when Biden’s job numbers cratered. They should have cut rates as soon as inflation started to slow.

Is the Fed too late? Experts question power of rate cuts now

I think we need a full interest rate point cut, 100 basis points…which we’ll never get. We have an outside shot at a 0.50% interest rate cut, with .25% the most likely cut, I’d say 7x more likely than a 0.5% rate cut, so call it: 6% no cut, 80% for a 0.25% cut, 11% for a 0.5% cut and 4% for more than a 0.5% cut.

[Mick]

The downward pressure on jobs caused by artificial intelligence is neither subtle nor insubstantial, and as AI gains in sophistication, all levels of white-collar jobs except those devoted almost exclusively to strategy are at risk, and many — if not most – will be eliminated.

Let’s take my business for example. If you divide the legal profession into four levels:

1. Pure strategy
2. Run-the-business with elements of strategy
3. Run the business
4. Commodity

…the first level will never be overtaken by AI. The fourth level is within three years of being eliminated.  Third level is at least five years away, but not more than 10. Second level will be 80% eliminated in 10 years.

So. 2,000 large and regional law firms in the United States. I think half of all lawyers will be unemployed in ten years.

Teach your kids a trade. General contractors and sub-contractors are unlikely to be eliminated any time soon. News flash: the nation’s housing stock is old. Really old. Lots of housing built before and after WWII, housing that needs updating. How to pay for it? That’s another story…

• This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Mick.

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