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I think Biden will make the cut, absent medical issues that prevent him from carrying out his job (other than his current medical issues, which to my mind are debilitating, particularly for the most important job in the world, but no one asked me). The third party contender issue is interesting…Cornell West and Jill Stein announced last year, neither are viable candidates and I doubt that Stein will crest more than 1.5% in the popular vote and West won’t get more the 1/10th of 1% of the vote.
35 candidates were on at least one state ballot and received votes in the Presidential election of 2020 (seriously). One candidate received less than 100 votes, another 10 received less than 1,000 votes. 14 received between 1,000 and 10,000 votes and six more received between 10k and 100,000 votes. Green party candidate Howie Hawkins and his running mate Angela Nicole Walker received 402,795 votes, 0.3% of the overall vote. And the lone major third party candidate, Libertarian Jo Jorgenson and her running mate Spike Cohen received 1.2% of the vote, 1,864,873 votes. There were another 183,120 write-in votes.
Trump had 74.223 million votes (46.9%) and Biden had 81.282 million votes (51.3%), totaling 98.2% of the overall vote. All other candidates, 1.8%. I don’t think Stein or West move the needle. RFK Jr? Maybe. What if he gets 10% of the vote? What if Trump refuses to make Nikki Haley VP and she runs on a third party platform?
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And when SVB had to borrow $30 billion in emergency financial assistance, they were able to wind it down (or rather, their purchasing entity) was able to wind it down prematurely. So SVB’s price tag, in the form of a large penalty, for that financing was $285 million in fees. Largest of its kind for any bank failure.
After Silicon Valley Bank’s failure, its attempted rescuer charged $285 million in fees
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COVID first appeared in the United States in early 2020 in large-ish numbers. The scale of the lockdown and the disinclination to entertain discussion, the shouting down on the Cardboard and elsewhere was sickening. In the four years since COVID appeared in large numbers, the USA has averaged about 300k deaths per year, according to the (likely) overwrought World-O-Meter, about 1/11th of 1% of the population.
Children, who went uneducated for a year or two, suffered greatly. Economic damage was severe. Social change was not positive or pleasant. This society handled the epidemic, IMHO, about as badly as it possibly could. I don’t mind getting pilloried on the Cardboard, or excoriated on other sites…but I am stunned at the inability of those who were dead-ass wrong to admit it.
BTW, without COVID, Trump gets re-elected. Just sayin’…
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Biden can cherry-pick stats with the best of them. Jobs increased in February…but the jobless rate moved higher. And both January and December job gains were revised downward. Average hourly earnings increased, but less than expected (0.1%). Job creation skewed to part time. Full time jobs decreased by 187,000, part time employment rose by 51,000. Categories of job creation — rarely mentioned — skewed to the low paid. Healthcare was #1, but government was #2, restaurants / bars #3 and social assistance #4.
His big problem is that his speech runs counter to what most Americans are experiencing. I don’t know how the government calculates the inflation rate, but it sure isn’t what I’m experiencing. And the disingenuousness over illegal immigration — he supports it for five decades, now it’s overwhelming Dem cities and states so now he wants to slow it down? — is frustrating. And, of course, he got the name wrong of the UGa student who was slain by a Venezuelan illegal…It’s “Laken” not “Lincoln”, Mr. President. But thanks for holding up the button with her name on it.
Katie Britt, a young Republican from Alabama (with no discernible southern accent) delivered the rebuttal…3.5 minutes long. She hit the right points and she wasn’t bad, but I wonder whether she was the right individual to deliver it. I’m a little concerned it will become an SNL sketch:
Katie Britt attacks Biden in GOP response to the State of the Union | AP News
Peggy Noonan had an interesting take on Biden’s sheer dependence on the mainstream press and how Reagan had to go over their heads directly to the American people. She did make one interesting point — that the upcoming election will be take-no-prisoners, implying that half of America will be disenfranchised…again.
State of the Union Shows There’s Life in the Old Boy Yet – WSJ
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I didn’t even include the fact that he doesn’t keep his promises, particularly economic promises, the cycles of tax increases and spending, inaction on public pension reform, capital gains tax volatility, over the top education spending while simultaneously underinvesting in the UC and CSU systems, lack of concentration on infrastructure (water management, transportation and other essential services), environmental cost burdens, housing crisis, healthcare spending, and his national political ambitions conflicting with the burden of running the Great State of California…into the ground.
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She hasn’t endorsed Trump. Manchin, Sinema and Romney are all departing. The moderate wing of the GOP is shrinking.
Still, Haley received 31.7% of all GOP votes in the primary against Trump’s 63.9%. Curious to see what she will exact in exchange for her endorsement. Does she want to be his VP? Sec of State? Commerce? Interior? Labor? Curious to know.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#bodyContent
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California’s economic struggles under Gavin Newsom have reached the attention of the country:
- From a $97.5 billion surplus to an (estimated) $81 billion deficit.
- Total personal income decline (0.2%) from 2021 to 2022, only five other states and WDC had declines. TX and FL grew by 5% and 4.7%.
- Higher unemployment than the rest of the country.
- Rise in violent crime by 6% from 2020 to 2021 and another 6% from 2021 to 2022. Robberies up by 10% in 2022. Retail theft up by 14% in LA in 2022
- Crippling homelessness with one in two homeless people residing in CA.
- More-than-crippling immigration encouraged by funding benefits to illegal immigrants.
- Silicon Valley Bank failure.
- Bullet train to nowhere failure.
- Panera’s founder, happily for him, is Newsom’s buddy and therefore exempt from the new fast food hourly wage rate of $20.
- Emigration away from California.
- Costs of environmental policies.
- Almond industry about to tank.
- Retail and drugstore disasters in LA and SF.
- California has 12th highest tax burden in the country.
- California business climate ranks 48th
- CA’s public schools are ranked 29th.
- CA has the second highest cost per kilowatt hour, nearly double the U.S. average.
- And for that, California has a 35th ranked power grid reliability.
- California is ill-prepared to face doubt.
- Highest median cost for a house in the United Staes.
- Highest poverty rate in the country of 13.2%, 35% higher than the national rate of 9.8%.
California’s Economic Struggles Under Gavin Newsom Sends a Warning to the Rest of the Country
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Unbelievable. Silicon Valley Bank, $100k in “behests.” But the worst is the $2.3 million his wife made in salary, with the money coming from entities that need a good relationship with elected officials; e.g., AT&T, Comcast, Kaiser, PG&E, etc.
No idea how and why this is legal.
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Biden is really, really old, and Trump is really, really dangerous.
Bottom line is that Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden Is Too Old But Trump Is Dangerous, Swing-State Poll Shows
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Somewhat interestingly, California’s Gen Z and Millenials are starting to sour on the benefits of illegal immigration, based upon a recent survey.
California’s Gen Z, Millennials Sour on Benefits of Migrants (newsweek.com)
Actual survey results here:
crosstabs-all-adults-0224.pdf (ppic.org)
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Ukraine. Immigration. Hamas vs. Israel. And Gallup says that Biden’s approval rating drops to 38%…
Biden’s Job Approval Edges Down to 38%
For me, it’s none of those things. For me, it’s the economy. I stipulate that every administration games the economic numbers to an extent — they futz around with the mix of the economic “basket” that is supposed to be representative of the average purchases of the average family…but this just takes the cake. Food prices have risen stratospherically. Gas prices are no picnic. I live in a modest, 1,800 square foot home and our energy bill is $1,400 a month, having risen a ridiculous amount. Our insurance has skyrocketed. Everything we buy…EVERYTHING…has risen dramatically. It just doesn’t “feel” right to me.
I understand the underlying factors, particularly the increase in both M1, M3 and velocity of the money supply. More money chasing fewer goods at a faster rate = inflation, seen and unseen.
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To me, this is a good news/bad news situation. Bad news…this is really bad news for California. California’s budget in 2023 was $300 billion. They’ve overspent (and undercalculated tax revenue) by a significant amount, a scary amount reallyi. They are going to have to cut spending (hah!) and raise taxes to the point that it will have a material impact on the quality of life for those of us unfortunate enough to live here. And it’s all Gov. Newsom’s fault. Which leads to the good side…
Gavin Newsom should never be able to run sucessfully for office again, particularly for the nation’s highest office. This financial debacle is Exhibit 1A proof that Newsom doesn’t know what he’s doing. His level of financial incompetence nothing short of breathtaking. The University of Arizona started firing senior decision makers when they were 10% off of projections. Newsom is 25% off on the negative side.
How could he — how could anyone — be so incompetent, so 0ff-target?
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Surprising precisely no one, SVB Financial (Silicon Valley Bank’s former parent company) sued the FDIC when the FDIC seized $1.93 billion in cash during its takeover of the bank. That was 10 months ago, about two weeks after the failure. The FDIC is acting as a receiver for the bank, and is gathering the bank’s assets to repay SVB’s creditors.
SVB Collapse: FDIC Removed $2 Billion Cash From Parent Company – TheStreet
Just recently, however, the Internal Revenue Service made a $1.45 billion claim against the FDIC re: SVB for taxes due between 2020 and 2023. The FDIC has denied the entire tax claim. The IRS says the court should overrule the FDIC’s decision to deny the tax claim and make a new determination on the validity and amount of taxes owed.
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Right, but presidential elections are different from mid-term elections. Turnout will be higher in presidential elections (by 17% on average) and more ideological. It tends to be a more educated turnout. They are also less racially diverse.
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NBC News Poll shows Biden with a 37% approval rating, another new low, the lowest by a sitting president since George W. Bush’s second term.
Biden trails Trump by 22% on the economy , 30+ percent on who would be better handling immigration, 16% short of Trump on competent and effective. In 2020, that last one Biden had a 9% lead over Trump, a 25% advantage.
His approval rating is especially low among Latinos (35%), voters aged 18-34 (29%) and independents (27%)
Biden’s best hope is that Trump gets convicted of a felony, in which case Biden goes ahead by…2%.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/rcna136834
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