Government debt,, the silent killer

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    • #8276
      Mick1Mick1
      Participant

      Government debt, abused by both the left and the right, is about to come home to roost. How can we finance a debt that is at 97% of GDP? We’re in for a market shock, according to the head of the Congressional Budget Office.

      https://www.semafor.com/article/04/02/2024/skyrocketing-us-debt-could-trigger-market-shock-cbo-chief-says

      I understand it, a little bit. The large generations (Boomers, GenXers) have gone through their high-consumption days, and the Millenials are smaller and GenZ smaller still. The number of workers who can pay for people on Social Security — people who are living longer lives — continues to shrink on a worker:retiree ratio basis, and the SS trust fund will be depleted in a few short years. We aren’t the world’s chief exporter, and haven’t been for a long time. So government has to spend to fill in the gap. The bills are coming due, my friends…

      Bloomberg Economics concurs. They’ve run 1 million simulations, and the U. S. economy craters in 88% of them.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/million-simulations-one-verdict-us-210022706.html

      • This topic was modified 2 years ago by Mick1Mick1.

      Audaces fortuna iuvat

    • #8279
      LegendLegend
      Keymaster

      Oh just wait.  At some point we will realize these interest rates were low.

      The long bond in particular is being kept artificially low via supply.  The treasury is issuing tons of short term debt and limited long term debt.  They will be proven to be the most short sighted treasury leaders in history.

      If I had more money I’d be short long duration treasuries from here to 2027.  Rates have to go up.  Once they go up, they will stay up because of the volume of treasury issues required to simply fund the debt.

      ____________________________________________________________
      Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)

    • #8357
      Avatarrogpodge
      Participant

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Bernstein

      Why is this important? Because it explains the administration’s approach to debt and deficit spending. This man, with no formal economics training, is the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors.

      He can’t address the dumb MMT talking point of why do we borrow money instead of simply spending printed money. We’re all screwed.

    • #8358
      AvatarBeeg_Dawg
      Participant

      Heard a sound bite of Bernsteins interview this afternoon.

      Pretty basic question.  “Why borrow instead of printing more money?” Good lord, he stumbled over the answer like Biden going up the steps to Air Force One.

       

    • #8359
      Avatarrogpodge
      Participant

      This interview. From the upcoming “documentary” on money… from he Modern Monetary Theory side of things.

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