Why I am broadly concerned about the American economy

[Mick1]

This goes beyond Democrat v. Republican. This is  six minute video from geopoliticist Peter Zeihan who comments on economic issues as well.

Long story short: for the first time in American history, growth in government spending surpassed private spending…not investment, spending. He also states it is likely to continue to do so, given the overwhelming size of the Baby Boom and our net investment vs. spend stance:

Audaces fortuna iuvat

[rogpodge]

https://x.com/BottomLineFBN/status/1803564589109444866

[Mick1]

This article indicates that Biden has a 3 point increase over Trump since  May, ostensibly because of Trump’s trumped-up conviction.

There are many issues. For me, they all take a back seat to the economy. BC was right “It’s the economy, stupid.” The most telling part of this article is that Biden recently hit his high water mark on the economy…at a 32% approval rating. 32% say the economy is in excellent or good shape, up from 30%. 68% say bad or poor…and that’s a positive for Biden? Huh? That’s a good sign?

Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May

But the real scandal is that 45% say they’re holding steady and 41% say they’re falling behind.

I don’t care who Biden is running against. Those numbers are the real scandal. More than two out of five people are falling behind?

Can’t wait for Trump to ask “Are you doing better now than four years ago?”

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[Cornfed]

I don’t think the national polls mean much.  This race (and all other presdential races for that matter) come down to each state.

Biden’s 7mm vote advantage in the popular vote came from 2 states.  So he had nearly a 10% win nationally but barely won.

 

[rogpodge]

I don’t know why the US is following Japan’s path to its “lost decade.”  I guess once the Fed adopted quantitative easing, pioneered in Japan, it was inevitable that we would go down the same path.  The road map is: easy money -> asset price bubble -> bubble bursts -> lending collapses (bad debt) -> quantitative easing / attempted fiscal stimulus -> government debt crowds out private investment -> lack of growth (private investment is more efficient at generating growth) -> more government stimulus / more government debt -> central bank is pushing on a string / stimulus has no effect.

We’re in the crowding out private investment stage, without the historically high personal savings rates that are culturally engrained into the Japanese.  The federal and state governments are looking to tax wealth / any form of savings that isn’t Social Security, looking to increase capital gains taxes, trying to discourage people from Roth IRAs, and basically waging war on private savings.  At the same time, they are running up record levels of public debt.  This is an economic poison pill, that the American people may be paying for for decades.

[rogpodge]

https://x.com/nfergus/status/1804404216657506526

[Mick1]

We’re in the crowding out private investment stage, without the historically high personal savings rates that are culturally engrained into the Japanese. The federal and state governments are looking to tax wealth / any form of savings that isn’t Social Security, looking to increase capital gains taxes, trying to discourage people from Roth IRAs, and basically waging war on private savings. At the same time, they are running up record levels of public debt. This is an economic poison pill, that the American people may be paying for decades.

I remember arguing with my Econ prof about this in 1983. His attitude was as long as we basically owed it to ourselves, it wouldn’t be a problem. He also said that overseas labor competition wouldn’t be a problem for American jobs…heh, heh, heh.

Well, he’s finally turning correct, as America reshores jobs, businesses and industries. Nice to see. Wherever will we get all the labor to populate these companies? Oh right…14 million undocumented immigrants.

Audaces fortuna iuvat

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