Mick

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  • in reply to: Alcohol #11328
    MickMick
    Participant

    Beer consumption on a per capita basis has declined in the United States since the early 1980s. Wine consumption is similarly down.  A prominent vintner in Fresno urged California winemakers to remove 50,000 acres of grapes from production. 500,000 tons in wine grapes went unpicked in 2025. Pests like the diamond moth are making inroads.

    It’s a tough racket. One of my marketing managers used to volunteer at Copia, a Napa Valley wine center, sort of a cultural/museum type of facility. It opened in 2001, Julia Child helped open it. Wish I could remember the name. It closed in 2008, and sold the property to the CIA (Culinary Institute of America) and became a food business school which opened in 2016.

    Copia (museum) – Wikipedia

    Wine Demand Crisis: Is the Industry at Risk? | Cover | montereycountynow.com

     

    in reply to: Labor participation rate and the future #11326
    MickMick
    Participant

    GDP  = G + C + B + E/I.

    Gross Domestic Product is equal to government expenditures plus consumer expenditures plus business expenditures plus the net of exports – imports, which has been a negative since 1975.

    Businesses have been doing more with less for decades. Consumer spending and debt are tapped. That leaves government expenditures.

    Incidentally, between 2019 and 2023 (the last time you could really do an apples to apples comparison), both California and Texas received more fed money than they paid in federal income taxes. In the last year before COVID, Texas was in a very slight deficit, California was in a very slight surplus. But during COVID (2020 and 2021), both states ran giant deficits, which narrowed again in 2022 and 2023.

    in reply to: In the great Democrat tradition… #11316
    MickMick
    Participant

    You can’t erase woke, according to the Washington Examiner.

    You can’t erase woke

    AOC says “I think it’s important to assess what the candidate is saying now.” Yes. You’d say that after the multiple idiocies that came out of your mouth.

    And don’t forget the treasure trove of bad ideas that the leading Democratic presidential challenger — Kamala Harris — supported. Green New Deal, Medicare for all, mandatory assault weapon buybacks, amnesty, packing the Supreme Court, and my personal favorite, transgender operations for illegal aliens who are in prison.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by MickMick.
    in reply to: Kamala Harris, current RealClearPolitics leader #11311
    MickMick
    Participant
    in reply to: Why the working class rejects the Democrats #11310
    MickMick
    Participant

    The “working class” rejects the left because the working class lives with what is true and now, and not with some academic worker’s struggle narrative. Tell me all the good stuff that has happened to the working class under any socialist rule. Socialists are academics who want something for nothing. They aren’t working people.

    100% agree. Most interesting part to me is how the Democrats take the working class for granted. Witness Kamala Harris’s jaw-dropping insult to the head of the Teamsters Union.

    He asked to meet her, she basically declined and literally told him “Get on board. This train is leaving with or without you.”

    Oh really?

    The Teamsters overwhelmingly supported Trump, 60% to 34%.

    Kamala Harris Said Something UNBELIEVABLE During Her Teamsters Interview

     

     

    in reply to: AI related cuts at Salesforce #11309
    MickMick
    Participant

    I think it depends on how it’s presented. The two times in my professional life, I was ordered to lay off people, it was almost exclusively female, because both times I was told to cut headcount…not overall compensation. So I selected the eight assistants, secretaries and coordinators that I could live without, at least over the short run. Both times, it was 100% women, both times HR called me on the carpet, both times, they okayed it.

    Why? Because at the end of the day, shit needs to get done, without drama, on time, under budget, and accurately.

    in reply to: Seattle and Socialism #11299
    MickMick
    Participant

    My wife’s cousin is married to a wealthy venture capitalist who is based in Seattle. As soon as their kids are out of high school, they are leaving for either Florida or Texas.

    She was a nurse, very sweet and kind lady, they’re both Democrats. But they can’t live with or support the craziness.

    • This reply was modified 2 weeks, 2 days ago by MickMick.
    in reply to: Democratic Socialists of Amerca platform #11293
    MickMick
    Participant

    I still can’t believe Gretchen Witmer is the GOvernor of Michigan.

    in reply to: Labor participation rate and the future #11291
    MickMick
    Participant

    I think there is a perfect storm of social trends leading to males withdrawing from the labor force.

    1. The problem is less “no jobs exist” than “the available job no longer clears the man’s reservation threshold”
    2. Recessions “scar” men—and some never fully return
    3. Poor health is both a cause and a consequence of nonparticipation
    4. America eliminated a great many jobs that once converted average male physical ability into middle-class status
    5. Society has been on a very successful drive to push, promote and drive the success of women at the expense of men. It’s a zero-sum game.
    6. The education system is increasingly poorly aligned with boys and with noncollege male employment
    7. Criminal records and incarceration create a long employment shadow
    8. Marriage and work once reinforced one another; both feedback mechanisms have weakened
    9. Modern life has made withdrawal more survivable—and less visibly miserable.
    10. Men may be particularly vulnerable to losing institutions that confer role and status
    in reply to: Flock Cameras #11290
    MickMick
    Participant

    Interesting article. And I suspect that the USSC as currently configured would not challenge it on institutional grounds. Flock expands and leverages police capabilities. It will be interesting to see how the Communists use it if/when they get in charge. Will they eliminate it because they don’t like police/policing or will they expand it because of the love of surveillance and control that all Communists love from Stalin to Pol Pot to Mao to Dear Leader and so forth…

    in reply to: Hey GR! National Billionaire’s Tax #11289
    MickMick
    Participant

    Becerra and Newsom back the California Billionaire’s tax. California’s Democratic convention voted today to support the tax by 145-90.

    California Democrats defy Gavin Newsom and Xavier Becerra as they vote to back billionaires tax

    in reply to: Plead the 5th? #11282
    MickMick
    Participant

    I believe he is likely to face contempt of Congress charges. Bannon and Navarro, who were convicted of contempt of Congress, each served four months in jail and a $6,500 and a $9,500 fine respectively.

    I think Fauci would rather tempt those penalties than admit what he did to those questions…in spite of the fact that he stated very publicly that he would cooperate with any Congressional hearings.

    Watching Fauci’s attorney removed from the room was…entertaining.

    MickMick
    Participant

    I bet 95% of those polled couldn’t name the Chief Justice.

    Probably not, but I’ll bet they could identify the demographics of the USSC.

    in reply to: DSA on the march #11275
    MickMick
    Participant

    In a recent YouGov poll, 25% of those who identified as very liberal said that violence is acceptable to achieve political goals.

    Very similar to the percentage of everyday Muslims who also believe violence is acceptable.

    The Muslim/Communist interface interests me. Communism is anti-religion. Muslim is anti-evrerything else. The Chinese imprison the Uighers. How can those two co-exist? They can’t. I imagine at some point the American right will take action.

    in reply to: DSA on the march #11263
    MickMick
    Participant

    The DSA can go considerably farther than “fringe movement” status—but under its current brand and coalition, it is unlikely to become America’s governing majority.

    Its most plausible future is as a disciplined insurgent faction operating inside the Democratic Party: dominant in several major cities, influential in blue-state legislatures, capable of defeating congressional incumbents, and powerful enough to force mainstream Democrats leftward on economics. The DSA now claims more than 100,000 members. Its candidates or members have captured the New York City and Seattle mayoralties, won Washington, D.C.’s Democratic mayoral primary, reached the Los Angeles runoff, and scored a striking series of New York congressional-primary victories in June 2026. DSA counted almost 90 endorsed candidates at the beginning of this election cycle, including more than a dozen congressional candidates. That is no longer merely protest politics.

    The likely ceiling

    Objective My estimate through the early 2030s
    Control politics in selected progressive cities Very plausible
    Become a major force in blue-state legislatures Plausible
    Build a 15–30-member House bloc Plausible, but not assured
    Control the Democratic Party nationally Possible only as part of a broader coalition
    Nominate a DSA-aligned presidential candidate Possible, but still unlikely
    Elect an openly DSA president Low probability
    Win durable congressional majorities for the full DSA program Very low probability

    Those are judgments, not polling forecasts. The distinction that matters is this:

    DSA policies can travel substantially farther than the DSA label.

    Labor unions have 68% national approval, and 58% of Americans favor raising tax rates on household income above $400,000. Programs involving childcare, healthcare, housing construction, prescription-drug costs and taxing concentrated wealth can attract voters who would never describe themselves as socialists.

    Where the DSA is strongest

    The DSA’s ideal battlefield is a low- or medium-turnout Democratic primary in a heavily Democratic urban district where:

    • Housing and living costs are painfully high.
    • The incumbent appears old, complacent, donor-driven or detached.
    • Republicans are not a credible general-election threat.
    • A young, charismatic candidate can mobilize renters, union members and highly educated progressives.
    • The campaign emphasizes affordability rather than socialist theory.

    That formula has now worked often enough to be replicated. Mamdani’s June 2026 endorsements helped three congressional candidates win Democratic primaries, including victories over two incumbents, while five of his preferred state-legislative candidates also won.

    In other words, they can become the left-wing equivalent of the Republican Party’s insurgent factions: numerically smaller than the entire party, but organized enough to frighten incumbents and influence the agenda.

    Their single biggest problem

    The DSA does not yet possess the broad working-class constituency its name and rhetoric imply.

    Among Democrats, only 32% say they like politicians who call themselves democratic socialists; 56% are neutral. Nationally, 17% like such politicians while 38% dislike them. More revealingly:

    • 40% of White Democrats like democratic-socialist leaders, compared with 21% of Black Democrats and 20% of Hispanic Democrats.
    • College-educated Democrats are more favorable than Democrats without degrees, 41% to 26%.
    • Upper-income Democrats are more favorable than lower-income Democrats, 40% to 24%.

    That is an awkward coalition for an organization presenting itself as the authentic political voice of working people. The DSA currently has greater appeal among young, White, educated and politically attentive Democrats than among many lower-income, noncollege and minority voters.

    Pew’s broader political typology points to the same limitation. The most consistently progressive group constitutes only about 7% of Americans. A much larger Democratic-leaning group is economically liberal but more concerned about crime, immigration and public order than the progressive left.

    Until the DSA can win those voters, its national ceiling remains fairly hard.

    The Mamdani test

    Zohran Mamdani is now the movement’s most consequential experiment.

    His success already proves that a democratic socialist can win executive power in America’s largest city and use that office to help elect other candidates. But the decisive question is no longer whether DSA politicians can campaign. It is whether they can govern.

    If Mamdani can materially improve housing, childcare, transit and basic municipal services while maintaining public safety and fiscal stability, he could normalize democratic socialism for millions of voters. If his major promises stall, taxes rise without visible results, city services deteriorate or ideological controversies consume the administration, he will furnish opponents with a national warning label. AP’s assessment after his first 100 days found considerable political energy and some early accomplishments, but noted that converting his fame into his larger policy program remained unresolved.

    Municipal socialism lives or dies on extremely unromantic matters: permits, garbage collection, construction costs, police response times, school performance and balanced budgets. The revolution eventually encounters the pothole.

    What would allow them to break through nationally

    <p data-start=”5825″ data-end=”5877″>The DSA would have to make four substantial changes:</p>
    <p data-start=”5879″ data-end=”6046″>Become an affordability movement first. Talk relentlessly about rent, wages, healthcare, childcare, utilities and corporate concentration—not ideological identity.</p>
    <p data-start=”6048″ data-end=”6307″>Expand beyond the educated urban left. It must recruit noncollege workers, Black and Hispanic homeowners, suburban families and voters in smaller industrial cities, rather than assuming that “working class” automatically means anyone receiving a paycheck.</p>
    <p data-start=”6309″ data-end=”6448″>Demonstrate administrative competence. Successful mayors and legislators would do more for socialism than another decade of manifestos.</p>
    <p data-start=”6450″ data-end=”6846″>Permit political flexibility. The current DSA program includes broadly popular economic demands alongside positions such as abolishing ICE, expansive public ownership and an intensely confrontational foreign-policy agenda. Those positions may inspire activists but can prevent candidates from building the broader coalitions needed in competitive states.

    Bottom line

    The DSA can plausibly capture the left flank of the Democratic Party, dominate politics in a collection of major cities, build a meaningful congressional bloc and cause much of its economic platform to become mainstream Democratic policy.

    It probably cannot, in its present form:

    • Replace the Democratic Party.
    • Win a national majority under an explicitly socialist banner.
    • Carry enough suburban, noncollege, Southern and swing-state voters to control the Senate or presidency.
    • Enact its complete economic and foreign-policy program.

    The organization’s realistic path to great influence is therefore slightly paradoxical: the farther its ideas travel into mainstream American politics, the less those ideas may be called DSA or socialism.

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by MickMick.
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 582 total)