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Interesting poll on Proposition 50. Basically, 60% want independent commission drawing districts. From the polling memo:
Voters Trust the Commission, Not the Politicians
• Six-in-ten voters support using an independent commission to draw the congressional district maps (61% support, 20% oppose) with 42% saying they strongly support the independent commission.
• A plurality of Republicans (43-32%) and three quarters of Democrats (74-11%) and more than half of Independent voters (58-26%) support the independent commission.
• 49% oppose authorizing the state legislature to draw the congressional district maps (40% support).
• When contextualized as an effort by Governor Newsom in response to Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas, Newsom’s proposal reaches 52% support.
• Testing the Proposition 50 language, we find support at 54% Yes and 29% No, while 17% are undecided.
• 15% of voters who oppose Newsom’s contextualized efforts mistakenly vote Yes on Proposition 50, highlighting voter confusion related to the ballot language.Is AI used by the BLS to create the Jobs reports?
Not speaking ironically, but…yes, it actually does.
The killer is caught. Tyler Robinson.
Charlie Kirk Shooting Suspect Tyler Robinson: What We Know
The country is broken.
Choose your America: In the aftermath of the Kirk slaying, a snapshot of a fractured nation
Charlie Kirk was the kind of political expert that I really admired. Would discourse with anyone, left or right. Never lost his cool. Never got dragged down to their level. Wasn’t intimidated by overly educated people (the opposite, really). And his discussions were always logical, and exposed the illogical fallacies of the left.
So, of course, the Left needed to eliminate this sane, productive, calm, religious, pro-American man. Of course.
Non-donor companies find California a bad place to do business, so says the executive chairman of the recently bankrupt Bed, Bath and Beyond:
“California has created one of the most overregulated, expensive, and risky environments for businesses in America,” executive chairman Marcus Lemonis said in a statement. He pointed to what he described as “higher taxes, higher fees, higher wages.
You have to like Newsom’s response, echoing Hillary Clinton’s response when she was asked about the burden her health care program would place on small business: “I can’t be responsible for every undercapitalized business in America” she said.
Here’s Newsom’s response: “After their bankruptcy and closure of every store, like most Americans, we thought Bed Bath & Beyond no longer existed. We wish them well in their efforts to become relevant again as they try to open a 2nd store.”
Nicely tone deaf. And this is the guy whose policies helped eviscerate Union Square in San Francisco, once the busiest retail center on the west coast.
Here’s the most important graph, covering 70 years of Federal Fund rate movement against unemployment.:
Inflation is the gold line, Fed Funds rate the blue line.
I’d forgotten how high interest rates were in the Reagan era. Also forgot how difficult it was to get a mortgage in 1989 to buy my first place. Haven’t forgotten the subterranean Fed Funds rates gifted to Obama, a sloppy wet kiss from the Fed of the era.
You’re right. It must really gall Trump that Obama had 0.25% interest rates, literally the lowest they could go, for seven of Obama’s eight years.
I think the cuts should be more significant than 0.25% for this reason alone:
Not only is the economy obviously stalling, but the effects of artificial intelligence have taken hold for the past year or two…and will only accelerate.
‘Market psychology has shifted’: The only question now is how far and how fast the Fed will go
As of today, here is the percentage of registered voters by party in California:
- Democrats, 45.27%
- Republicans, 25.22%
- Independents, 22.34%
- Minor parties, 7.17%
There are 52 seats allocated to California in the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. Here is the distribution by party:
- Democrats, 43 seats, 82.7%
- Republicans, 9 seats, 17.3%
As you know, that paragon of political virtue, Governor Newsom thinks that having nearly twice as much political representation by his party in Congress isn’t enough. Now he wants more, and he wants to do it away from the independent districting commission in California. And his attorney general, Rob Bonta, says there is a legal path to do so through a special election: California attorney general says ‘legal pathway’ exists to redraw congressional maps In 2008, voters took the power away from California lawmakers to create an independent, citizen-led redistricting commission to avoid what Newsom wants to do. Governor Hochul (D-NY) says “all’s fair in love and war.” Instead of calling out Newsom on his perfidy, the San Francisco Chronicle warns that he has a tight timeline with roadblocks. Of course. Newsom faces a tight timeline to redistrict California. Here are the roadblocks
I was at a wedding this weekend in Santa Barbara. My college roommate (godfather to my son and vice versa) has a son who married into a Pacific Palisades family of recently-former Democrats.
Yes, there are still a lot of Democrats in this state, and Democrat-leaning independents. But watching two cities burn down and watching the Democrats do literally everything they can to prevent rebuilding Pacific Palisades is simply…extraordinary. That goes for demanding low-income housing to be built in PP, to a mandated foundational rise of 3-4 feet on the presumption that PP is a flood zone (I don’t think too much water is PP’s problem) to demanding new environmental impact reports and more.
Pacific Palisades will be like La Haina. The fire was more than two years ago, on August 8, 2023. 2,000+ homes were destroyed (3% of all Maui’s houses). By early 2025, only two homes had been rebuilt, with a third home outside of LaHaina destroyed by the fire. As of August 8, 2025, exactly two years after the fire, only 45 houses had been rebuilt, so just over 2% of all destroyed homes.
The Democrats have had an extraordinarily bad impact on this state. When will the Independents understand how they’ve dragged us down?
Is the Fed too late with its interest rate cuts? On the one hand, it’s never too late. On the other hand, they should have cut rates a long, long time ago, dating back to when Biden’s job numbers cratered. They should have cut rates as soon as inflation started to slow.
Is the Fed too late? Experts question power of rate cuts now
I think we need a full interest rate point cut, 100 basis points…which we’ll never get. We have an outside shot at a 0.50% interest rate cut, with .25% the most likely cut, I’d say 7x more likely than a 0.5% rate cut, so call it: 6% no cut, 80% for a 0.25% cut, 11% for a 0.5% cut and 4% for more than a 0.5% cut.
The downward pressure on jobs caused by artificial intelligence is neither subtle nor insubstantial, and as AI gains in sophistication, all levels of white-collar jobs except those devoted almost exclusively to strategy are at risk, and many — if not most – will be eliminated.
Let’s take my business for example. If you divide the legal profession into four levels:
- Pure strategy
- Run-the-business with elements of strategy
- Run the business
- Commodity
…the first level will never be overtaken by AI. The fourth level is within three years of being eliminated. Third level is at least five years away, but not more than 10. Second level will be 80% eliminated in 10 years.
So. 2,000 large and regional law firms in the United States. I think half of all lawyers will be unemployed in ten years.
Teach your kids a trade. General contractors and sub-contractors are unlikely to be eliminated any time soon. News flash: the nation’s housing stock is old. Really old. Lots of housing built before and after WWII, housing that needs updating. How to pay for it? That’s another story…
Democrats are becoming obsessed with Newsom. They think the need a more traditional choice, that they just need to win and they think he’s a winner.
Gavin Newsom is becoming an obsession for Democrats beyond California
Newsome is leading “Undecided” in the polls. Not what I consider a ringing endorsement. More like – “If I have to pick someone, Gavin looks like a regular guy I could vote for”. I would love to see a debate between Vance and Newsom.
Me too. That would be a battle of wits. Vance would annihilate Newsom. Newsom has dyslexia and Vance has a tOSU degree and a law degree from Yale (he was at Sidley, great firm), was a venture capitalist, and was in the Marines and Iraq.
Incidentally, it wasn’t all that long ago that Newsom had record low approval ratings:
Newsom’s support has more than doubled from his June support. He’s (comparatively speaking) a manly man, at least relative to the other Democrats.
He has a chance. Personally, I hope he implodes, I think he’s a sleazy creep.
Trump just removed Kamala Harris’ Secret Service detail (it had been extended by Biden). I don’t know that she needs it. Her opponents definitely want her to stay alive…
Trump cancels Kamala Harris’ Secret Service detail that was extended by undisclosed Biden order
On a personal level, I’ve traveled late at night in many of the nation’s hot spots, including NYC, Philly, Detroit, and New Orleans. Never felt frightened there. Felt genuine fear on the Metro in Washington DC.
And while I am ranting, may I just say that I’ve spent a fair amount of time in DC’s Union Station. It’s actually not that bad, unless it’s really deteriorated in the last two years. Last I saw it, it was in pretty decent shape.
Trump Administration to Reclaim Control of DC’s Union Station
There is a lot of trash in Washington DC, and some of the largest rats you’ve ever seen.
National Guard to pick up trash in DC, work on ‘beautification’ – NBC4 Washington
