Biden vs. Trump polling

[Mick]

Analysis by CNN, of all entities, seems to indicate that the 2020 Presidential race will be 2016 redux:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-polling-analysis/index.html

Candidly, i don’t agree, for the following reasons:

1. Trump’s ceiling appears to be about 47%.  He hasn’t gone over that number.
2. Third party candidates are getting less attention.  Third party candidates in 2016 were 6% of the vote.  Biden has a much closer relationship with Sanders than Clinton did.
3. Biden isn’t as disliked as HRC was, though Kamala Harris may rival HRC in “dislikeability” though for different reasons.  In 2016, HRC polled 43% “very dislikeable” whereas Biden polls just 33% “very dislikeable”.  Both stats from NBC/WSJ polls.

Here’s an electoral map based upon polls, updated three times daily.  Shows Biden with 275, Trump with 119, rest up for grabs:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map

Biden was not ready for primetime in his two prior presidential runs.  The last tough race Biden had was his 1972 upset Senate race.  2020 will be a challenge.

Biden’s keys to victory:

1. Don’t debate Trump in public.
2. Focus on the present. Try to wrest the narrative from Trump.
3. Expand the vote as much as possible.
4. Needs to channel his internal attack dog to meet Trump’s attacks

Trump’s keys to victory:

1. Focus on fear.  It’s a scary world.  Electing Biden means President Harris.  Do we really want President Harris?
2. He needs to define COVID as not his fault.

At the end of the day, polls don’t tell the story.  People vote pragmatically.  College-educated white women don’t like Trump for all the obvious reasons.  And that’s why he’ll lose.  Prof. Allan Lichtman has called 13 presidential elections in a row, including 2016 Trump victory.  He follows 13 factors, and Trump loses on seven of them:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/biden-will-beat-trump-says-historian-who-predicted-every-race-since-1984.html

 

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