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Trump and Harris tied at 48%. Same percentage party split for congressional races.
Their last poll had Harris in the lead at 49% to 46%. Immigration was listed as top issue. only 28% of the country think the country is heading in the right direction.
Harris is viewed favorably by 46%, Trump by 48%.
Survey was 2,516 registered (not likely) voters, though less than 2% said they weren’t very likely or not at all likely to vote, and only 3% said they were somewhat likely to vote. 9% had already voted.
Data here:
Cross-Tabs: Late October 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate – The New York Times
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I always vote early, absentee, straight Republican. A native Californian, I’ve known since Reagan left for DC my vote is merely a protest vote in this F ed up libtard state.
“I remember that one fateful day when Coach took me aside. I knew what was coming. "You don't have to tell me," I said. "I'm off the team, aren't I?" "Well," said Coach, "you never were really ON the team. You made that uniform you're wearing out of rags and towels, and your helmet is a toy space helmet. You show up at practice and then either steal the ball and make us chase you to get it back, or you try to tackle people at inappropriate times." It was all true what he was saying. And yet, I
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Daily Mail’s take on the regional races and their leaders. Again, I like the Brit polls because they don’t really have a dog in the fight:
Pennsylvania, Trump +1
Michigan, Tied
Wisconsin, Tied
Nevada, Trump +1
Arizona, Trump +2
Georgia, Trump +2
North Carolina, Trump +1
They are projecting Trump with 287 electoral votes.
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Nate Silver on the NYT poll:
- Last few national polls have been tied or with Trump slightly ahead.
- When using high-quality, non-partisan surveys, Trump’s lead actually increased.
- Registered voters vs. likely voters show a big split. In principle, Harris could lose the popular vote and win the electoral vote (highly unlikely). Trump is attracting Black and Hispanic voters, Harris is attracting white voters.
- Individual data points, like one NYT poll, shouldn’t concern anyone.
Other items of interest:
- Trump leads Harris in only two categories (Economy/Inflation and Immigration), but they’re the most important and the third most important categories. In Trump’s first three years, 1.5 million migrants were caught at the border, in Harris/Biden’s first three years it increased fourfold to 5.92 million.
- Silver has Trump ahead in PA, NC, AZ, GA and has Harris ahead in MI, WI and NV. If that holds, it would give Trump 281 electoral votes.
- Harris lead on Nate Silver is down to 1.3 points, 1.7 on 538, though Silver’s forecast of the popular vote has her up 1.9.
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Betting markets (Kalshi especially) all trending Harris.
https://x.com/realpeteyb123/status/1852547346036387964
The fix is in.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1852892470935216320 now completely flipped.
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You’re kind of right. The fix is in: Trump will declare victory on election night, before many states have finished counting. Like he did in 2020. And then, if the actual vote doesn’t go his way, Republicans will find some “irregularities” and many Republicans at precincts, state, and local levels will refuse to certify. The strategy is to cook up enough crap to force a “contingent” election by Congress, where each state gets a vote and Trump ‘wins’. It may work.
Its quite sad what has happened to our democracy. I never expected half the country to lose its mind and enable a fascist prick — much less well educated folks with a Stanford education.
i know you don’t see it that way. Or you do, but you don’t care because you’re convinced the Democrats are even worse.
I genuinely didn’t understand how well informed, well educated, intelligent people could be enablers of Trump. It admittedly took me longer than it should have to finally understand: Some of you may not like Trump (some do), but you truly despise Democrats.
God help us. Even if Harris somehow wins, this country has gone mad. That includes the pro Palestine assholes on college campus and some of the stupid pronouns crap, but especially the fascistic MAGA insanity that has taken over Congress and the Republican Party. I don’t understand how you guys don’t see it. You certainly see it clearly on the left, but you have a blind spot on the right.
NO MALARKEY
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We’re talking past each other. Dems dislike Trump as a person, and believe me, he’s virulently dislikeable for every reason we’re all aware of. Harris is extremely likeable, relatively speaking. Both made terrible choices for VP. If Harris had picked Shapiro, this election would be over. If Trump had picked Nikki Haley, this election would be over.
At the same time, what makes this election unique is that there is a comparable track record of both major candidates. Let’s examine:
Trump’s 2017-20 concrete record: border security, no major wars abroad, calm in the Middle East, a deterred Russia, Iran and China, low inflation, low interest rates, lower crime, lower taxes, strong deterrent military — and opposition to mandatory electric vehicle mandates, biological males competing in women’s sports and the woke/DEI agenda.
On the other hand, is the Biden-Harris 2021-2024 record: the unchecked entry of 12-20 million illegal aliens and a destroyed border. People still struggle under Biden-Harris’s earlier hyperinflation and high interest rates, a concept that wealthy Dem donors and media don’t really understand. The horrific regional wars in Ukraine and the Middle East continue. Biden-Harris embraces the unpopular DEI/Woke agenda.
Harris herself knows that the Biden-Harris years were a failure. That is why she has shed almost all of their hard left-wing agendas — policies she has embraced for virtually all her adult life, so much so that in the last 90 or so days, Harris has flip-flopped on 15 separate issues. Why? Per Bernie Sanders, she’s doing what she needs to do to win.
Harris, and you, claim that Trump is an insurrectionist for January 6th’s misguided 2,400 idiots who attacked the Capitol. Yet Harris bragged of the far more violent demonstrations of 2020 — at least 25 killed, $2 billion in damage, 1,500 law enforcement officers injured, 14,000 arrested — that the unrest would not and “should not” stop, while she drummed up support to bail out jailed violent protestors.
If fascists exist, they exist on the Left, a group who weaponized the CIA and FBI to interfere in the 2016 and 2020 elections by peddling the fake Steele dossier and suppressing all the embarrassing news about Hunter Biden’s incriminating laptop. As awful as Trump is, Trump certainly did not coordinate, as Biden did, with local, state and federal prosecutors to wage lawfare prosecutions to destroy his political opponents. He did not use the FBI to partner with social media to suppress the news. Trump and the Republicans never coercively removed the party’s primary-winning nominee. They did not nullify the will of 14 million primary voters. And in backroom fashion, they did not anoint a candidate who had never entered a single primary in her life. Biden’s son Hunter shook down regimes in the East, it’s been recorded.
The Left hates Trump because he didn’t come from The Machine. He’s the only President in history who didn’t come from government or the military. And all the forces in America that desperately depend on make-believe and a reality other than that which currently exists (Hollywood, Silicon Valley, Wall Street, the media, academia) hates Trump because he’s a comparatively regular guy who lives in a comparatively regular world. Therefore, he’s uncontrollable, therefore he Must. Be. Stopped.
At the end of this long Presidential season, only two criteria matter: Which candidate’s past record and current agenda best appeal to voters? And which candidate seems the most authentic and genuine?
I will make just one guarantee. America’s voters will get the President that they truly and richly deserve…whoever wins tomorrow night.
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“….but especially the fascistic MAGA insanity that has taken over Congress and the Republican Party. I don’t understand how you guys don’t see it. You certainly see it clearly on the left, but you have a blind spot on the right.”
LoL. The right isn’t blind, it’s just weary of left declaring every Republican candidate since Goldwater a Nazi or fascist. It’s old news and no longer registers with a lot of people.
Want a blind spot – for four years dems hid Biden’s condition. He didn’t just lose his fastball 3 months ago.
Want another blind spot- the left calling out conservatives for supporting Trump, when the liberal candidate is so awful conservatives are faced with a choice of awful or empty. (Mick’s description). All of the bad things leftists predicted if Trump were elected in 2016 failed to happen. It will be the same again in this election, unless you want to count anticipated riots when Trump wins.
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I’m not talking about just the insurrectionists on January 6 that Trump sent to the Capitol. I’m talking about his fake elector scheme. I’m talking about the scheme to install cronies across the country who will refuse to certify their precincts, counties, and states in attempt to require a Contingent election. I’m talking about Trump knowingly and intentionally driving out regular Republicans from the Republican Party through violent threats against their families.
Do you understand why so many normy Republican Congressmen and Senators have retired in the last 8 years? It’s not simply because they were worried about being primaried. Trump has systematically sicced his millions of followers on them. When you see him Tweet things like, “I hate so and so”, he is signaling his base to go apeshit on them. He knows they will get endless death threats. He knows their families and kids will get threats. He knows most of them can’t afford security and don’t want to deal with the harassment and threats.
ill give you an anecdote from 2016 from a conservative commentator Megyn Kelly:
From her book about the 2016 campaign (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/dec/06/megyn-kelly-donald-trump-social-media-online-abuse):
She recalled that she had been “friendly” with the New York property tycoon until August last year when she aired allegations about his divorce from Ivana Trump. She said Trump raged at her over the phone, quoting him as saying: “You’re a disgrace! You ought to be ashamed of yourself! You’re a disgrace! I almost unleashed my beautiful Twitter account against you and I still may.”
A few days later, as a moderator at the first Republican primary debate, Kelly asked Trump about past comments he had made disparaging women. He subsequently launched a social media blitz against her, branding her “overrated”, “angry”, “crazy” and “a bimbo”. In an interview, he later implied that she had been hostile to him because she was menstruating, saying she “had blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever”.
She received death threats and obscene phone calls, she continued. “When Donald Trump comes after you, it isn’t just a tweet – ‘oh wow, he’s tweeting about her’, and I understand he’s a fighter, he’s a counter-puncher, I get all that – but even then he has such power that a single tweet can unleash hell in somebody’s life. “I’ve been under armed guard for 16 months and my children have been under armed guard and it’s not an appropriate price to pay for hard-hitting journalism.”
He threatens business people, as well. Why do you think USA Today and Bezos wouldn’t endorse Harris. Did you see how quickly Zuckerberg got religion after Trump threatened him? It was embarrassing and frankly I don’t blame Zuckerberg. Businesses know he will fuck them over if they don’t play ball.
Blue states, like California, will be part of his retribution. And I don’t mean that he will simply enact policies they don’t like, I’m talking about withholding funding for emergencies, and that sort of thing. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he targeted some policies against New York and California as well.
I don’t post much on here anymore because I realized a while ago that I wasted decades believing that you guys actually believed most of what you wrote. It turned out to be all bullshit. Remember all the discussions on the CEB about how character mattered? Lex’s beer test. All bullshit. Trump, the most unethical public person in America, comes along and you fall in line.
I remember asking two years ago if you guys would vote for Herschel Walker if you lived in Georgia, despite the fact that his son, a conservative, said not to vote for him because he would abuse him and his mother. The response: yes, because even though he was obviously a certified moron, an abuser, and clearly had paid for abortions, it would mean the Democrats might control the Senate. Shocker! character does not matter after all.
I remember all the threads and comments about activist judges. But then the Supreme Court rewrote the constitution for Donald Trump and made up shit out of whole cloth. Not a peep out of anyone here about it.
i could go on about the hypocrisy, but I suspect none of you care. So I’ll just finish by wishing everyone good luck. Let’s hope our country does not commit national suicide on Tuesday and elect this narcissistic unethical, fascistic piece of shit who doesn’t understand Jack about American history, our civil institutions, and the rule of law. But if that’s what you guys want and if there’s enough of you, or if Trump’s next coup attempt works, I guess we can look forward to Trump 2.0, where he is unconstrained by those pesky things like the rule of law. Where he’s not gonna have normal Republicans, like Kelly and Mattis , constraining him from turning the military against our fellow citizens, whom he calls “the enemy within”.
I still can’t believe you guys really buy into all of his bullshit. I know some of you want to have it both ways and make a point of explaining that you’re not a big fan of Trump or his character. But if you vote for him you are enablers of his psychosis and fascism just the same. But I guess it’s a bit late for all of that.
NO MALARKEY
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I wish you peace. Your post is historically pretty interesting (the beer test, for instance). I kinda miss the old CEB or else I wouldn’t have set this one up.
Your post also sounds a bit more unhinged than I would have expected. Trump can’t stop the sun from rising. He hasn’t hypnotized the populace. He’s just a better option than a leftist to many Americans. In other words, if the Democrats weren’t so cynical, they would have nominated a sure winner (I’d still vote for an Amy Klobuchar over Trump). But to do that would have required the release of a lot of ideology.
Trump has exposed the same evil tendencies that the Dems and GOP have banked on for years. He has just done it in an open and brash way. When Biden calls Trump supporters garbage in a civil tone, it’s appealing to the same prejudices that Trump does when he says Illegal immigrants are criminals.
In other words, demagoguery has become the way to win. People act on anger, not love, so you have to appeal to their prejudices. Obama did it, Trump does it, Biden did it (not well), and Kamala is doing the same.
The really odd thing is Trump’s politics are centrist. If it weren’t for Trump the man, and the democrats successfully pinning people’s votes to their personal endorsement of the man, his politics would win by a mile. He’s proposing exactly zero social engineering legislation in his platform, and in reality is mainly focused on what would have been called law and order before that was made a buzzword for racial hate.
secure the border, keep us out of foreign wars, support businesses. He’s ridiculously pro American but perhaps blind to what his rhetoric has done to the other side. They have grown into angry, violent people because his rhetoric pins them in a corner.
finally, even your post above falls for one of the worst fallacies to emerge in this election: the fallacy that the Dems know exactly what Trump will do, and will tell you, and can’t articulate a damned thing about what they would do. Trump’s gonna…. It’s pure fear mongering, coming from the party that has restrained, restricted, enslaved, interred, and segregated more people than the other over its history. Trumps gonna.
I wish you peace. Your post sounds deeply agitated. Get some fresh air, watch the election returns, and realize this too shall pass.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work) -
I listened to the full 2 hour+ debate between Sam Harris and Ben Shapiro with their anti-Trump and pro-Trump arguments, respectively.
Three thoughts:
- Harris’ full and complete argument revolved around Trump being a bad person.
- Shapiro’s full and complete argument revolved around Harris being a bad Senator and Vice President.
- I love Bari Weiss, who moderated the debate. I want her to be the full-time moderator forever for all political debates. She challenged both Sam Harris and Shapiro in ways that neither Trump nor Kamala did, and she at least appeared neutral.
Trump or Kamala? Ben Shapiro and Sam Harris Debate.
Sam Harris’ arguments against Trump were essentially the same as BeyondThunderDome’s arguments against Trump. You can sum it up in a sentence:
“Donald Trump is a bad man, and therefore should be disqualified from running from the office.”
Neither speaks to Trump’s policies. Neither speaks to Harris’ and Biden’s abject failures as politicians.
Shapiro more than adequately summed up Trump as a fairly moderate, middle-of-the-road president, and summed up Kamala Harris as a hard-left representative of hard-left Progressives on the Hardest-Left part of the Democratic party, who is pretending that she had an epiphany and did a U-Turn not on one of her positions but on fifteen of her positions.
For me, the difference between Harris and Trump is that Trump is personally amoral and immoral whereas Harris is politically amoral and immoral.
Fundamentally, Sam Harris and BYT are advocating for high inflation, lockdown economies, completely open borders, higher crime (and trying to hide it — disgusting), and all the other excesses of the left. I just won’t have it.
BTW, just as an aside…the argument that generals don’t like Trump holds exactly zero water for me. Lefties, for some oddball reason, don’t like or appreciate the military (or the police), but somehow think generals are sacrosanct. These are people who are accustomed to having others follow their orders for their entire lives, and Trump refused to follow their orders. So…I don’t give a rip what Mattis or Mathey or any of the other generals say.
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As to why I don’t want Kamala Harris, I’ll quote Democratic geopoliticist Peter Zeihan:
“She’s an empty suit…she’s never said or implemented anything…you have to take everything she says with a big block of salt…she was with Biden for every meeting, every call, every decision and Biden’s staff didn’t want her around, so they gave her a task that they knew she would fail at, and that was going down to (air quotes) solve the border…and they were able to shove her off to the side for two and a half years.”
My suspicion is that Biden (and Clinton, and Obama, and Pelosi, and Schumer and all other Dems) can’t stand Harris, that they never wanted her as VP. And Biden resented Obama for (a) making him step aside for the failed Hillary in 2016 and (b) Biden particularly resents Obama and Pelosi and the rest of the Dems for making him step aside for this nitwit.
I think Pelosi/Obama/et al wanted to have an open, mini-primary when they told old Joe they would invoke the 25th amendment, and Biden decided to screw them over by fully endorsing Kamala Harris. Additional evidence, Biden’s propensity for well-timed malapropisms to support Harris.
All very entertaining.
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