Labor participation rate and the future

[rogpodge]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/job-seekers-giving-up-labor-force-participation-rate-falls-to-lowest-in-50-years-outside-of-covid-era/ar-AA2750kA

Labor force participation, especially among prime earning 18-54 year olds, remains low relative to historic levels. I suspect the rates among some of the younger cohorts may be shockingly low.

An interesting theory here:

https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/labor/5972127-crisis-american-men-employment/

[Mick]

I think there is a perfect storm of social trends leading to males withdrawing from the labor force.

1. The problem is less “no jobs exist” than “the available job no longer clears the man’s reservation threshold”
2. Recessions “scar” men—and some never fully return
3. Poor health is both a cause and a consequence of nonparticipation
4. America eliminated a great many jobs that once converted average male physical ability into middle-class status
5. Society has been on a very successful drive to push, promote and drive the success of women at the expense of men. It’s a zero-sum game.
6. The education system is increasingly poorly aligned with boys and with noncollege male employment
7. Criminal records and incarceration create a long employment shadow
8. Marriage and work once reinforced one another; both feedback mechanisms have weakened
9. Modern life has made withdrawal more survivable—and less visibly miserable.
10. Men may be particularly vulnerable to losing institutions that confer role and status

[rogpodge]

https://x.com/i/status/2085932973480620112

I would be interested in Mike Rowe’s take on this.

[rogpodge]

https://x.com/Kazanjy/status/2090087364186239278

I agree with this. Increases G component of GDP. Can’t cut it (“you’re literally targeting seniors and the terminally ill”) and there’s little accountability for services delivered or time spent.

[Author]

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