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If RFK Jr. gets on enough battleground state ballots, will he affect Biden or Trump more? This article seems to suggest that it will affect Dems more. I’ve seen polls that claim that RFK’s entrance into the race will affect Trump more.
This while a Bloomberg poll has Biden behind Trump in seven key swing states, including Arizona (47-43 percent), Georgia (49-41), Michigan (47-42), Nevada (48-40), North Carolina (49-39), Pennsylvania (48-45) and Wisconsin (49-44). Over all states, Trump leads Biden by 48-42. 61% of swing state voters think Biden is at least somewhat responsible for the increase in migrants crossing the U.S. / Mexico border. The article refers to it as a polling disaster.
Joe Biden Suffers Polling Disaster Against Donald Trump: ‘5 Alarm Fire’
Thoughts?
Audaces fortuna iuvat
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I believe he will draw from both sides. Those who believe Biden is doing a great job will vote for slow Joe. Those who believe Trump is the second coming will vote for Trump. Those looking for an alternative might turn to Kennedy.
Its anyone’s guess as how many run to Kennedy, who has his own issues. Still hoping a miracle occurs and Trump is determined to be ineligible to run.
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I saw a lrecent poll addressing an aspect of this issue.
Trump and Haley both beat Biden head to head. However, when Kennedy and West are added as choices, Trump beats Biden while Haley loses by 5% or so; 32% to 37%.
Biden’s best bet, Haley with third party candidates aplenty in the race.
Trump’s vulnerability may be the litigation. Georgia is blowing up thanks to Fani. Florida has a better jury pool for Trump and there is an emerging wrinkle related to Obama executive orders that addressed “ownership” of records.
As to the January 6th indictments in DC, seems to me delay is Trump’s best approach. If the nine wise souls decide to engage, I think the Smith/Chutkin calendar is suspect. Trump’s got problems if the case moves forward with the jury pool in DC.
Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long -
I don’t think Trump will be determined ineligible…could happen, but I note that the media tends to engage in wishful thinking with respect to Trump.
Recent Quinnipiac poll indicates that Biden has a substantial lead over Trump (50-44), and that women support Biden (58-36), up from December when it was 53-41. In a five person hypothetical 2024 general election, the support was:
- Biden, 39%
- Trump, 37%
- RFK Jr. 14%
- Cornel West, 3%
- Jill Stein, 2% (my Mom and sister – Stanford PhD – always vote Green)
If it were Nikki Haley, the poll reverses the results, with Nikki having a 47% to 42% lead over Biden in a two-way match, but if there are five candidates, Biden has a 36-29 lead. Basically, Haley outperforms Trump because of independents, but third party candidates make her numbers slip.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889
This is in spite of the fact that Biden has serious failures in immigration and the southern border crisis, no answer for Iranian aggression and comically higher prices in the USA — speaking of which, I don’t know about the rest of you, but the public inflation rates bear no resemblance to the skyrocketing prices I see for everything except fuel.
Biden is drowning in three disasters of his own making (msn.com)
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