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Harvard / HarrisX / CAPS polled 2,000 registered voters last week. Interesting outcomes:
- Kamala Harris leading Newsom by a lot, 39% to 30%. AOC is 12%%, Shapiro 9%, JB Pritzker 7%, 4% say someone else.
- JD Vance at 53%, Trump Jr. at 21%, Rubio at 17%, Tucker Carlson 5%, 3% say someone else.
Favorability ratings:
- JD Vance, 38%
- Rubio 34%
- Newsom, 32%
- AOC, 32%
- Tucker Carlson, 27%
New poll shows top 2028 presidential candidates
More interesting points, worth a look:
It’ll be interesting to watch what happens to Seattle. The people, in their infinite wisdom, elected a nincompoop with no legislative experience or acumen. Seattle’s budget deficit in 2027 is projected to exceed $127 million, and she’s made a lot of promises.
To get this link, I had to sign up for “Equity and Inclusion” from the Seattle Times., so…
Seattle Mayor Wilson shakes up department leadership | The Seattle Times
Don’t count on cost savings. The Seattle City Council and outgoing mayor didn’t do her any favors. They want to limit Wilson’s options. They’ve already proposed significant new revenue sources, including a “public safety” sales tax increase, and more than doubling the Families, Education, Preschool and Promise Levy.
The 2026 budget is balanced, but relies on a one-time $141 million fund balance left over from 2025 and a permanent assumed $10 million underspend that has (not suprisingly) been referred to as “inherently unsustainable.”
I don’t want her to fail, but I just don’t see how she’s going to avoid it.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist says that states representing 1/3rd of U.S. GDP (including Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, and Montana) are at high risk of recession. Says that California, Alaska, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico will tread water. Idaho, Utah and Arizona should continue to expand. California and New York will be the bellwether states:
One woman, Janet Napolitano (easily my second-least favorite SCU alum after Gavin Newsom) is one of those Progressives who can’t hallucinate enough. She knew the SAT / ACT scores were useful and predictive. And she killed it anyway. It was plainly and solely an ideological move and it resulted in a legion of unqualified, unprepared students.
Cal wasn’t the only one. The list of universities that suspended or put a moratorium on ACTs/SATs included MIT, CalTech, Dartmouth, Brown, Yale, Harvard, Penn, Princeton, and yes, Stanford among hundreds of others. Same was true at the great public university systems, not just UC, but Ohio State, Purdue, Texas, Miami, Georgia, etc.
Incidentally…I suspect that one of the reasons they eliminated the test was because of the gender disparity. Men do better than women overall, but in particular in the higher scores. 9% of all men scored over 1400 whereas just 6% of all women scored over 400. 17% of men scored between 1200 and 1390, whereas just 16% of women scored in that range. Below 1200, women take over until 800, then men again outnumber women, 19% to 17%. Males at the tails, as it were:
2024 Total Group SAT Suite of Assessments Annual Report
By the way, you can’t find granular SAT score data by gender any more. The latest I could find was from 2012, where 100k women more than men took the SAT, but the number of men with perfect 1600 scores dwarfed the women who had 1600s. Same at 1590. And 1580. And 1570. And so on, all the way down to 1170 (74th percentile) when women outnumbered men, and did so at every decile until the very lowest scores, in which men outnumbered women again.
Along those lines, even though Mayor Lurie wants to promote building more small apartment buildings in San Francisco, few will be built, chiefly because of the net 17.5% taxes that have to be paid on new construction.
Interesting video. In 2024, there were 113,533 business starts in California with 97,146 closures, netting out at a positive 16,387. I wouldn’t make too much of that because (a) there’s not a lot of red tape for starts of small businesses and (b) fewer closed businesses formally report than actually close.
Still, CA’s average business start rates are lower than NY, and considerably lower than TX
If you’re interested in the regulatory sludge that slows down, eliminates, and drives business out of California, you might consider the PPIC, Public Policy Institute of California. It is a nonpartisan research arm.
Business Regulation and Business Starts in California – Public Policy Institute of California
The basics? CA is not an outliner in the quantity of business regulations but it is an extreme outlier with respect to the number of constrains embedded in those regulations. Not surprising.
CA businesses, on average, are subject to eight regulations per industry, close to the median for all states. But with respect to specific regulatory constraints, the average CA business is subject to 3,737 constraints. The median across states is 1,400.
If you go on the link, check out Figure 5, particularly the Industry/Commerce link. Your jaw will literally drop.
Welcome to Universal University – one of my more insightful blog posts, if I do say so myself. On my latest commute to South Pasadena, the Uber driver, a young guy under 30, told me he was leaving Uber at the end of the month to take a job in Texas flying drones over a wind farm, at about $20,000 a month. He learned the skills necessary completely on line. Of course that was not all. He had to pass a credentialing test, and there is the rub. Remove diploma, and you are going to have to have some really serious objective examinations in their place. Age, gender, race considerations will not apply, as the exams will be online and completely objective.
Very impressive, GR.
I took marketing courses at Northwestern in 2012. Easily the best class was taught by Prof. Mohanbir Sawhney. Exceptional instructor. IIT grad, also Penn M.A. and PhD. He had essentially the same take that you did. He said that the first Top 20 University that understands that they could reach 1000x more students via digital lecture will “win” the war among the top universities.
I grew up in Santa Cruz, and not too far from my place was a psychopathic, steroid abusing drug dealer. His brother was a serial killer who died in prison, another brother did prison time. This guy was on a murder trial in 2022, when his DNA was found under the fingernails of a woman who was strangled to death. Hung jury (11-1), DA wanted to retry, judge said no, he’s acquitted, insufficient evidence. Felony parole violation in 2014, DWI late last year. He’s out, walking around.
No idea why he’s not permanently locked up. He wanted to take me out permanently when I was 17, told our friends in our common circle. He came close, too.
So…no. I don’t know why we would let out felons.
TwoThree final additions. On January 26, the last store in the San Francisco Town Centre is closing, ECCO and so is the Peet’s at 595 Market Street. New closings in bold:- 24-Hour Fitness
- 7-Eleven
- A Miner Miracle Shop
- Abercrombie & Fitch
- Adidas
- Agent Provocateur
- Aldo
- Alessi
- Alexander McQueen
- AllSaints
- Amazon Go
- American Eagle Outfitters
- Amy Kuschel Bride
- Anthropologie
- Archive
- Arc’teryx
- Armani Exchange
- AT&T
- Athleta
- Babette
- Banana Republic
- Bank of America (brand on 1 Market Street)
- Barneys New York
- Bed Bath & Beyond
- Benefit
- Blondie’s Pizza (relocated)
- Bloom Room, The
- Bloomingdale’s
- Bristol Farm
- Brooks Brothers
- Bucherer / Rolex
- Burke Williams Spa
- California Girl Jewelry
- Camper Shoes
- CB2
- Charley’s Cheesesteaks
- Christian Louboutin
- Century Theaters
- Cinemark Multiplex
- Coach
- Coco Republic Furniture
- Cole Haan
- Container Store, The
- Crate & Barrel
- Crunch Gym
- Cuyana
- CVS Pharmacy
- Denny’s
- Diana Slavin
- Diesel
- Disney Store
- Doc Martens
- DSW/Designer Shoe Warehouse
- Ecco
- eDressit
- Ethos
- Express
- Fabric Outlet
- Façonnable
- Farinelli Decorative Arts
- Fires of Brazil Express
- First Republic Bank
- Forever 21
- Forum
- Gallery of Jewels
- GameStop
- Gap, The
- Good Vibrations
- Goorin Brothers
- Green Arcade Bookstore
- G-Star
- H&M
- Harputs
- Hollister
- Huntington
- Icebreaker
- In-N-Out Burger
- It’Sugar
- IWC Schaffhausen
- Izzy & Wooks
- J. Crew
- Jamba Juice
- Jeffrey’s Toys
- Jimmy Choo
- Jimmy Choo Men’s
- Jin Wang Bridal
- Jins Eyewear
- John Varvatos
- Johnny Was
- Jos. A. Bank Clothier
- Journeys
- Jug Shop
- Kate Spade
- Klaus Murer Swiss Jeweler
- Kohl’s (27 closings nationwide)
- KPMG – Leaving their $400 million name building
- L’Occitane
- La Cocina
- La Perla
- Lacoste
- Lego Stores
- Lily Samii Collection
- Longchamp
- Lucky Brand
- Lululemon
- Lush
- Madewell
- Makeshop by Brit + Co.
- Margaret O’Leary
- Marlowe
- Marmot
- Marni
- Marshall’s
- Mashaallah Halal Pakistani Food
- MCM Worldwide
- McDonald’s (closed after 30 years)
- MedMen
- Mephisto
- Merrell
- Michael Kors
- Mija Cochinita
- Milk Tee
- Miller & Lux Provisions (Tyler Florence owner of Wayfare Tavern closed this patisserie and sister rotisserie cafe. SF gave him a grant of $440k just two years ago to open it)
- New Balance
- Nordstrom – Closing all San Francisco stores, not just Union Square
- Nordstrom Rack
- North Face
- Oak & Fort
- Oakley
- Office Depot
- Old Navy
- Omega
- Ordinary, The | DECIEM
- Panda Express
- Panerai
- Paper Source
- Peet’s
- Psycho Bunny
- Puma
- Rae | Costumes
- Ray Ban
- Razer Computer
- RealReal, The
- Richemont
- Ria’s Shoes
- Rims & Goggles
- Rolex
- Saks Fifth Avenue
- Saks Off Fifth
- Samsonite
- San Francisco Town Centre
- Sarku Japan
- Scotch & Soda
- See’s Candies
- Sentiero
- Sephora
- Shake Shack
- Shreve & Company Jewelers
- Starbuck’s (Two closings three more by 2025)
- Steve Madden
- Subway
- Sunglass Hut
- Taco Bell
- Tad’s Steakhouse
- Target
- Ted Baker
- The Body Shop
- Theory
- Thomas Pink
- Tina’s Jewelry
- T-Mobile
- Tourbillon Boutique
- TSE
- TUMI
- Umai Savory Hot Dogs
- Uniqlo
- V Boutique
- Vans
- Veo Optics
- Vilebrequin
- Walgreen’s (closed nine SF stores between 2021 and 2024, twelve more closed in February 2025, two were in Union Square)
- Warby Parker
- Westfield Mall
- Wetzel’s Pretzels
- Whole Foods
- Williams Sonoma
- Wolford
- World of Charms
- Yotel
- Zadig & Voltaire
- Zara
- Zumiez
Excellent reply, and by that I mean that I feel the same way.
I can’t recall the time I last interacted with the government in any way that seemed positive or efficient. About 20% of the time, I get the sense that the person behind the desk is interested in arriving at a positive conclusion for both of us. I have never thought dealing with any government (or non-profit for that matter) was efficient in any way.
I don’t think you can make government or non-profits efficient. The instinct isn’t there, the desire isn’t there, the knowledge isn’t there, and people go home at 5:01 p.m. When I was at Andersen, our biggest client (by far) was PG&E. They didn’t have anyone internally who knew what to do.
Here’s the problem in microcosm: I was at a post office some years back, very long line. An elderly lady walked up to the clerk (finally) and asked for a bit of tape to close off a weakly-sealed part of her parcel. The clerk behind the desk declines, and she says “just some of that tape from your dispenser right there” pointing to a tape dispenser three feet away. Bureaucrat that he is, he declines, politely. She leaves, irritated and bemused. He says loudly to his four co-workers “I wonder why she thought we would give her some tape?” They all laughed. The guy in front of me says “Because UPS does it.” Someone else says “So does Federal Express…and Emery…and Airborne.” (Note: The USPS changed their policy at some point in the past).
The government isn’t built to be efficient. It’s an employment agency for not-very-employable people who generally wouldn’t succeed in the private sector (absent the nosebleed-high people). You don’t get fired for following the rules, but you might get disciplined or fired when you try to do something different and better.
So…you’re right. What will they do with all that money? One would hope pay down the debt, or apply it to transfer payments to the elderly, sick, etc. But no, they can’t be trusted with it. They’d just waste it.
Interestingly, the government is convinced that they spend our money better than we do. Former White House employee and creator of “The West Wing” wrote this exchange:
Donna Moss: “What’s wrong with me getting my money back?”
Josh Lyman: “You won’t spend it right.”
Donna Moss: “What do you mean?”
Josh Lyman: “Let’s say your cut of the surplus is $700. I want to take your money and combine it with everybody else’s money, and use it to pay down the debt and take steps toward universal health care. You won’t like that, will you?”This is the Josh/Donna version of the “I know better than the government how to spend my money” vs. “we know better than you what to do with it” argument.
Later in the episode, Donna argues for her taxes returned to her:
Donna: What’s wrong with me getting my money back?
Josh: What do you mean?
Donna: The surplus is money the government collected from us but doesn’t need.
Josh: We’re going to need it eventually.
Donna: Give it back and collect it later.
Josh: You won’t spend it right.
Donna: What do you mean?
Josh: You’ll spend it on cigarettes and beer and tattooed boyfriends.
Donna: I’ll buy an American car.
Josh: We don’t trust you.
Donna: Why not?
Josh: We’re Democrats.
Donna: I want my money back.
Josh: You shouldn’t have voted for us.
You obviously don’t understand the concept of limited government. Yes, the Republicans support limited government — not small government. You will note that small government is not listed anywhere here — but limited government is.
Republican Party (United States) – Wikipedia
Limited government, incidentally, is a concept favored by liberals. I’m guessing you didn’t know that either. The Magna Carta, the U. S. Constitution, John Locke (liberal philosopher) and his Two Treatises of Government reasoned that men would voluntarily join a social contract, or a “commonwealth,” one in which the powers of the government were restricted to only what the people allowed it to do.
Limited government – Wikipedia
Here’s a century of federal spending. I don’t see any evidence that Republicans held back — ever. So I guess I don’t know what you’re talking about.
Trump sends military to Portland and authorizes full force. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-27/trump-orders-us-troops-to-portland-authorizes-full-force i feel so much safer now with the party of small government and states rights sending the Gestapo and the military.
The Geheime Staatspolizei (German State Police) were (a) German, (b) secret police, and (c) disbanded in 1945. There is literally nothing to connect them with anything in present-day America. The only reason to continue claiming that Americans are identical to WWII German war criminals is to both desire and cause literal physical attacks on American politicians of the party you don’t like.
Congratulations. You got your wish. Multiple prominent Republicans and Christians attacked. You must be proud.
BTW, Mexico has an enlightened approach to property taxes. Mexican property taxes are due in March. If you pay in February, you get 10% off. If you pay in January, they knock of 20%.
And yet I have 20-something’s that work for me who own homes and nice cars. I’m thinking the American dream is dead if you think the dream is to own nyc or Silicon Valley real estate as a young person with a normal job. If the American dream is to work hard for a chance to own property and make a good life for yourself, I’d argue it’s still alive. It’s just that if you live in a bastion of greed you have to deal with monetization of everything.
Both of my kids turned out fine and have their piece of the American dream. But you have to agree that it is much, much more limited than it was for our generation and certainly the generation prior to that one.
