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Reasons Harris could win:
- Abortion.
- Net favorability ratings of Harris at -2 and The Donald at -7. In 16 of the past 17 elections, the candidate with the best net favorability rating won. But the only instance in which they didn’t? Trump in 2016.
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Biden himself is a poison pill…it seems like he’s deliberately trying to reduce Harris’ chances of being president with his recent flubs.
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Nate Silver on the NYT poll:
- Last few national polls have been tied or with Trump slightly ahead.
- When using high-quality, non-partisan surveys, Trump’s lead actually increased.
- Registered voters vs. likely voters show a big split. In principle, Harris could lose the popular vote and win the electoral vote (highly unlikely). Trump is attracting Black and Hispanic voters, Harris is attracting white voters.
- Individual data points, like one NYT poll, shouldn’t concern anyone.
Other items of interest:
- Trump leads Harris in only two categories (Economy/Inflation and Immigration), but they’re the most important and the third most important categories. In Trump’s first three years, 1.5 million migrants were caught at the border, in Harris/Biden’s first three years it increased fourfold to 5.92 million.
- Silver has Trump ahead in PA, NC, AZ, GA and has Harris ahead in MI, WI and NV. If that holds, it would give Trump 281 electoral votes.
- Harris lead on Nate Silver is down to 1.3 points, 1.7 on 538, though Silver’s forecast of the popular vote has her up 1.9.
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Daily Mail’s take on the regional races and their leaders. Again, I like the Brit polls because they don’t really have a dog in the fight:
Pennsylvania, Trump +1
Michigan, Tied
Wisconsin, Tied
Nevada, Trump +1
Arizona, Trump +2
Georgia, Trump +2
North Carolina, Trump +1
They are projecting Trump with 287 electoral votes.
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I’m in trouble now. This line of analysis is so compelling to me, I am huuugely vulnerable to emotional collapse if Kamala wins. But my desire not to embarrass my fellow savage patriots will keep me strong. If that happens, we’ll just have to start working on “next steps”. 😇😎😛
Let me see if I can cheer you up a little bit.
First, the pseudo-bad news. It’s “pseudo” because it’s not really bad news. Drudge Report’s headline in “we-just-won-WWII”-size font is that Kamala Harris has been gaining in the polls in the last four days and just hit 50%. This was in the TIPP tracking poll, which bills itself as the most accurate during the 2020 presidential vote:
TIPP Tracking Poll Day 11: Harris Extends Slim Lead To 3 Points In Heated Race
Now, the good news. If you look at the TIPP poll’s rating on 538, it rates TIPP polls as the 120th most accurate, and among the least transparent:
Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight
The Atlas poll, which was within 0.2% of the popular vote in 2020 and 0.3% of the popular vote in 2022 and is the 22nd best poll according to 538 has Trump ahead by 50.7% to 47.6%, a 3.1% overall lead. If those numbers held, it would be the biggest landslide for the Republicans since Bush the Elder in 1988.
Atlas Poll US Elections NATIONAL – 17 Oct 2024
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With respect, my opinion of Walz, regardless of whether he’s sinner or saint, is that he shouldn’t be leading this country. We don’t need a Knucklehead-in-Chief.
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Harris’ popular vote lead is down to 1.8% on 538 and 1.6% on Nate Silver.
By my count, based upon all states that poll (on 538) a 0.8% or greater lead for either candidate, Trump is at 262 electoral votes, assuming he wins NC (0.9% lead), AZ (1.8% lead), GA (1.6% lead).
Trump is 0.2% ahead in PA. Harris is 0.4% ahead in WI, 0.2% ahead in NV, 0.7% ahead in MI.
If Trump wins any of those four, he surpasses the 270. If Harris wins all four, she wins.
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Trump’s lead is increasing, now 52 out of 100 simulations on 538
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight
Harris’ popular vote lead is down to 1.6% on Nate Silver. Republican gains have occurred in all swing states:
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
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Right, agree with you completely. But my point is that if you’re the opposition…like Silver…the article should be “three reasons Trump could win” or “five reasons Trump could win.”
24 reasons? And he omitted 1/2 dozen of the most important, most salient reasons? He’s basically made the case for Trump nearly airtight, whether he supports Harris or not. The fact that much evidence exists, that many reasons, should seal the deal, as I think it does for non-ideological people.
Or we could just ask this gay, mixed-race man from San Francisco why he refuses to vote for Kamala Harris:
I’m gay, mixed-race and from California – but Kamala Harris is losing my vote
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London Breed in the fight for her political life:
‘I am the change.’ Facing tough reelection, London Breed says she’s still what San Francisco needs
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These comments are related strictly to the Presidential election from the point of view of a registered Independent.
Generally speaking, I’m smelling desperation on the part of the Democrats. I think they’re broadly concerned that Harris doesn’t have the goods, and that voters instinctively realize that, even undereducated American voters.
They’re right. That said, here’s what I see as the results, assuming Trump’s support is undercounted by 2% or so:
Harris wins CA, WA, OR, CO, NM, MN, IL, NY, VT, NH, MA, CT, RI, three from ME, VA, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI and one delegate from NE.
Trump wins ID, MT, WY, AK, UT, ND, SD, four from NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MO, IA, MS, AL, TN, FL, SC, TN, KY, IN, OH, WV and one delegate from ME.
That’s 226 for Harris, 219 for Trump.
That leaves NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC and GA, seven battleground states. Right now, they’re so close that if the pollsters have undercounted Trump’s popularity, I suspect he wins all seven, leaving him with 312 electoral votes. If pollsters are accurate, Trump still wins, but much closer.
I think Trump is invulnerable to an October surprise. Everything is known about him. Harris, on the other hand, is not invulnerable to an October surprise. The only upside potential I see for Harris is if she hits an absolute home run on Rogan’s show and converts 300,000 males. Which could happen, btw, if she charms Rogan. But she doesn’t really have the “charm” gene, same as Hillary. She’s a career prosecutor, with all that implies. “Charm” is N/A, which is odd for a career politician. Newsom has it, so does Biden, Rubio, Graham, Tulsi, even Whitmer, Shapiro has it in spades, Schumer has it. Even Bernie and Warren have it, a little bit. There are those that don’t. AOC has zero charm. Adam Schiff. Ted Cruz. But it’s important on the national stage, particularly in Woke America. Lack of charm makes you unlikeable. Bad Man Orange has lots of charm. The Candidate of Joy has a cackle, but no charm, not really.
The Mask Of Zorro 1998 DVDRip charm scene
I think undecideds break hard and late for Trump. Four years of mismanagement, four years of the Biden con, etc. Kamala will win the popular vote by 2 mms. to 2.5 mms. but will lose the electoral college vote by nearly 100 if pollsters are wrong about Trump and by 15 if pollsters are right about Trump.
BTW, Harris’ lead is down to 1.8 points in the 538 presidential poll. Two months ago, she was ahead by 3.7, one month ago it was 2.8…tick, tick, tick…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
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Wow that’s impressive. They forgot number 20: 20. Democrats have gone from people who would get huffy in a political discussion they disagreed with to people who will self righteously key your car for even having a Trump bumper sticker on it. People notice that the Dems have become the party that harbors anti social assholes, and they look like everyday women.
You hit the nail on the head, and they allude to it in #16. Basically, you can’t talk with Democrats anymore. They’re too skittish, too quick to take offense, too willing to shout you down and completely unwilling to listen. They’re completely unwilling to even face up to the failures of their side.
That includes the Joe Biden con…the 81 year old who was senile four years ago. He was the only electable Democrat, so he got the nomination, but that’s been a four year con job.
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She can’t think on her feet. Like Peggy Noonan said, she’s Empty. And while Noonan is no fan of Trump, she’d rather have Awful than Empty.
Opinion | Kamala Harris Is an Artless Dodger (msn.com)
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Some Black voters in Georgia are moving towards Trump.
‘Now I like him’: Some Black voters in Georgia see Trump as a real option (msn.com)
Biden won 88% of the Black vote in a state that he only narrowly won in 2020. Article notes that Harris has a hard time capturing male voters. Shocking, I know.
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