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I don’t care for Trump, believe me. If he were walking in my direction, I’d go the other way.
But compared to Kamala Harris? I’d vote for my labrador over Kamala Harris. Are there Democrats I’d vote for over Trump? Sure…find me a moderate Democrat, not one to the left of Bernie Sanders. But moderate Democrats are a vanishing breed. And KH’s deathbed conversion on which she’s flip-flopped on not one, not two, but 13 separate and specific issues? Well, as Bernie says (paraphrased) “She’s doing what she needs to do to get elected.” And as they both say, her values haven’t changed.
Kamala is a deer in the headlights. When people say she’s not bright, they’re talking about economics. She doesn’t understand Economics. She can’t do math, like, frankly, most Dems.
I’ll give her this…she and Biden quietly continued and doubled down on Trump policies. Remember the “Trump sales tax”, a/k/a tariffs? Literally within the week after she decried the “Trump sales tax”, she and Biden raised tariffs…and they never eliminated them.
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And you were right. And you’re still right. Nearly 2/3rds of Americans think the economy is getting worse, per Gallup. What’s more, the percentage that believed America’s economy was improving has only crested 30% three times since 2021.
So much for Bidenomics.
U.S. Economic Confidence Plummets as 63% Believe Economy Is Getting Worse (msn.com)
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Agree on Nikki Haley as a great choice, but would she have accepted? I see her as a front runner to clean up the smoldering mess of a Republican party in 4 years.
I think Gavin Newsom thinks he’ll be the one to clean up the smoldering mess of a Democrat party in four years. He terms out in two years, and he has two years to do the run up if Trump wins. If Harris wins and does the standard terrible job that everyone would expect, Newsom will swoop in and challenge her.
Two interesting points:
- California Governor Newsom is “getting tough on crime” after many years of being soft on crime. Backpedaling from “defund the police”, he knows there’s a serious organized retail theft issue, so he’s getting tough on that specific crime. Organized retail theft AND people who sell stolen goods will see sentences dramatically increased. Same with smash-and-grab theft from autos. Same with certain types of drug crimes. BTW, violent crime is up 3% this year.
- Newsom vetoed that ridiculous law that would give illegal immigrants $150,000 to buy houses — remember, we have a $48 billion deficit and many, many California/American citizens who can’t afford a house. And whack-job Democrats are criticizing Newsom? Seriously?
California Governor Newsom’s Gets Tough On Crime With New Law (msn.com)
‘I’m Deeply Disappointed’: Democrats Turn On Newsom (msn.com)
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Maybe not. ABC News is reporting that Harris has just a 1.5% edge over Trump. They claim that their polls are more accurate because unlike 538, they do not consider the lag effect of polls before Harris became the nominee.
Makes sense to me. And if you dive into their reasoning, they are actually skewing towards Harris, by their own admissions. One thing they don’t do is give Trump any credence to voters who prefer not to tell pollsters that they will vote for Trump…interesting that they ignore that phenomenon.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump-tied-538s-new-polling-averages/story?id=112494481
And independents have factored in that Trump is a bullshit artist (an “honest liar” per Dave Chappelle), but they really don’t like that Harris is skimpy on facts and policies:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html
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Nate Silver says she was hurt by a series of polls run by Democratic groups that show her tied in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Silver claims those are essentially losses, given the partisan nature of the polls.
Silver’s overall poll rates the expectations gap narrowing after the poll to 2%, Harris at 48.7%, Trump at 46.7%. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.5%, but won Wisconsin (the tipping-point state) by just 0.6%.
Silver also shows that the polling change from both last week and last month benefit Republicans in all swing states except North Carolina, and fully benefit Republicans in all the near-swing states including Florida, Texas, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
Silver also claims there’s a 20% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote. And that Harris’ raw polling averages have declined in most of the swing states since the start of the DNC.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
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Now this is interesting…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
In the wake of the debate, Harris’ edge has shrunk yet again to 2.6%, despite the media’s collective intention to gaslight the voting public. For example, I went to Cal Thomas’ article: “And the winner is…” which showed a photo of Kamala Harris…but Harris called it a draw…Harris on image, and Trump on the issues.
Unemployment started the year at 3.7%, it’s climbed to 4.2%. Inflation has cooled, but was at a three generation high for 3+ years. Trump needs to lean into the facts in the next debate:
JESSE WATTERS: Kamala’s strategy was to provoke Trump and distract you from her record (msn.com)
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Also noted that Harris’ lead over Trump on the 538 site has narrowed again. She peaked at a 3.7% edge on August 23rd, and has slowly lost ground since then, now down to a 3.1% edge. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Holly cow…as of this morning, she’s now down to a 2.8% lead!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
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And finally, Bernie Sanders had an interesting quote:
Sanders (I-Vt.) claimed Harris has been recalibrating and “doing what she thinks is right in order to win the election.
“No, I don’t think she’s abandoning her ideals. I think she’s trying to be pragmatic,” Sanders told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
In other words, she merely wants to win the election. She’s still a Progressive, per the Progressive’s Progressive, Bernie Sanders.
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Also noted that Harris’ lead over Trump on the 538 site has narrowed again. She peaked at a 3.7% edge on August 23rd, and has slowly lost ground since then, now down to a 3.1% edge.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
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BTW, in an NYT article, Carville laid out a three-point plan for Harris to defeat Trump:
- Make sure Trump hurts himself in the debate.
- Break from Biden’s policies.
- Show clear growth mind-set compared to her 2020 presidential run.
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Interesting Silver take today. Kamala ticked up nationally…but lost ground in the forecast. Trump at his highest odds since July 30. Couple of reasons:
- It’s been a while since a poll showing Kamala leading in Pennsylvania…Mark Halperin (I had him speak at a law firm event, good guy, relatively middle of the road) says internal polling doesn’t look good in PA for Harris.
- Most incoming polls are below Silver’s current polling average for Harris. Not surprisingly, IMHO…she’s post-DNC bounce.
- They have Harris ahead by 3.4% nationally, with Trump ahead in AZ, FL, NC and TX and Harris ahead in GA, MI, NV, PA, VA and WI.
- Six swing state averages got closer last week for Repubs, only four for dems.
Two more items:
- Strangely, Silver doesn’t address the fact that a substantial number of poll respondents don’t tell pollsters they will vote for Trump, thought it’s been a documented phenomenon in the last two elections.
- He says there is a high likelihood of a nightmare recount, like the 2000 Florida debacle.
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