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There are two things going on here. One is the 538 simulation, which uses Prof. Lichtman’s factors for re-election (including incumbency bonus, and economic bonuses for if you believe the official Bureau of Labor Statistics figures). By the way, Prof. Lichtman also predicts a Biden win. Then there’s the polling average prediction, which is the 27% chance figure using only polling averages.
Today’s polls all show Biden with a lead. Even Harris has a lead, which is surprising to me. It is an NPR poll, but still.
Near where the In n Out closed.
https://x.com/DougKass/status/1806675647403536393 Jill Biden has engaged in 5 full years of elder abuse.
Laughable blaming the “right wing” in Oakland. No idea who’s she’s trying to blame, and undermines her credibility (if she had any).
I don’t know why the US is following Japan’s path to its “lost decade.” I guess once the Fed adopted quantitative easing, pioneered in Japan, it was inevitable that we would go down the same path. The road map is: easy money -> asset price bubble -> bubble bursts -> lending collapses (bad debt) -> quantitative easing / attempted fiscal stimulus -> government debt crowds out private investment -> lack of growth (private investment is more efficient at generating growth) -> more government stimulus / more government debt -> central bank is pushing on a string / stimulus has no effect.
We’re in the crowding out private investment stage, without the historically high personal savings rates that are culturally engrained into the Japanese. The federal and state governments are looking to tax wealth / any form of savings that isn’t Social Security, looking to increase capital gains taxes, trying to discourage people from Roth IRAs, and basically waging war on private savings. At the same time, they are running up record levels of public debt. This is an economic poison pill, that the American people may be paying for for decades.
