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Fascinating stuff. Thanks for posting Rocky. As someone who isn’t so confident in Trump’s ability to win, I also appreciate that there are a lot of closeted Trump voters. You literally don’t have a Trump conversation among Stanford groups of more than a couple people. It triggers emotions that are simply juvenile.
This quote:
“Another factor, is that “conservatives are less likely to participate in polls in general,” he says. “We see a five-to-one refusal rate among conservatives.” That means “you’ve got to work very hard to get a fair representation of conservatives, when you do any kind of a survey.””
And this quote:
“”One problem with weighting is that Republicans “who don’t like Trump can’t wait to answer a poll,” he says. “So immediately, within the 22 percent, they’ve probably overrepresented it, the anti-Trump Republicans, the Never Trumper types. Well, when you weight that up from 22 to 35, now you have skewed an already bad representation sample. So that’s kind of inherently how they can be so off.”
Those tell the story of how polls can be so totally off. I’m hopeful they are right. Having done some market surveying, I can tell you that people who do the research really focus on completed surveys of a type, and not the underlying motivations of the survey taker…so in this environment, getting a “Republican complete” is a huge success, and it comes with the likelihood that the only reason that Republican took the poll is because he hates Trump.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)And, of course, the press will say that this was all presented “without evidence.”
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)Yes. That’s right dawg. They have to govern, and it will be hard, but they will have the full cover of the media.
Trump has almost single handedly made twitter relevant and that’s not saying much. I hope twitter crashes hard after this election.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)Upton Sinclair has a mildly famous quote about how it is impossible to get a man to understand something if his salary depends on him not understanding it.
I think that we have been exposed to the reality (meaning it’s nothing new) that the same principle holds true when it comes to power. The difference is that while a person can amass enough fortune to “turn good” and give back, its a rare man who actually gives power back. furthermore, there is a vast swath of the population, likely including you and me, who will ignore true repugnance while voting for the preferred power structure, and to keep voting for it even as it becomes more aloof and repugnant. How else do you explain Maxine Waters or Strom Thurmond?
Our political system was designed to prevent tyrants and dynasties by ensuring frequent elections. We have corrupted that intent by allowing people to make a career out of garnering votes. Trump isn’t the problem here. Trump is the answer, but not in and of himself: the answer is to have MORE inexperienced politicians take a look at our system, not fewer.
I would be all for a few significant reforms to the system. Term limits on congresspeople, a single 6 year presidential term, elimination of donation money from corporates (including unions, nonprofits, etc.) , and a ban on monetization of office through books and speaking fees and other soft money sources.
If you want a more honest government, you have to eliminate the size of the prize. Obama went into office a modestly rich guy because of his political notoriety. His now filthy rich only a few years out of office.
He’s an easy example but trey Gowdy is hawking books on Fox News and so is Ted Cruz.
Our political system should be closer to the priesthood than to the marketplace, but that would destroy too many empires and careers in DC.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)[quote quote=3120]The Trafalgar polling suggests an outcome very much like 2016. Orange with narrow leads in key swing states. Pennsylvania seems to be the important final nail in Biden’s coffin…if Orange can turn around a 2.5% deficit.[/quote]
Well, Fox, the NY Post, and Mayor G are doing their level best to out Biden as the lyin dog faced pony soldier that he is. He’s a grifter to.
The question is whether anybody actually believes it or cares since Trump is such a combative prick.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)He didn’t “support” it, he sponsored it. Didn’t he?
It was a mistake to support it. Just like it will be clear that it was a mistake to shoehorn China into the WTO, and to appease Iran, and to do all the other things that I’m sure Biden voted for. You really can’t be constantly wrong and make promises to be finally right all the sudden. The guy has a track record.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)I wish I knew how to add an upvote button just for this post because you hit the nail on the head Bob. A textualist being criticized for using a word that is not offensive in its definition really underscores the value of textualists on the court.
If I want to change the law, I should have to change the law, not change how people perceive the words in the law.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)Yeah, this one has the smell of October surprise. That’s especially true when you consider the entire basis of Trump’s impeachment.
Played correctly it could sway people away from Biden.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)It’s simply the high school bully effect writ large. Every time a suburban wife who wears a mask during her 10 minutes in the store gets self-righteous about a store worker who has to pull an 8-hour shift with a face covering on wearing the mask a little cattywampus, I just think about the cool kids making fun of the poor kids.
I took one flight in July and was surprised at how oppressive the face covering is when it was required for the ~2 hours of the flight. Not fun. I can’t imagine having to wear it without breaks for an 8 hour shift, and I’m usually pretty comfortable in dust masks and respirators.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)Saw the article.
I’m thinking the setup thesis may be the right one. Lilly just stopped its monoclonal antibody trials.
Operation Warp Speed has been pretty amazing. There’s bound to be something for everyone to complain about, however.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)If ACB is confirmed, Trump can hang out the “mission accomplished” banner as far as I’m concerned.
2016 was a vote about the court.
2020 is a vote about civility, it’s just that too many people view trump as less civil than antifa.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)Wow. I hadn’t really looked at his resume in a long time. He became president on the strength of less than 5 years of work experience outside of campaigning for higher office.
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)That’s totally unfair Rocky. His massive cognitive impairment has nothing to do with this. 😎
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)We should just abolish laws in general. They are oppressive tools of white supremacy as well.
No laws, no disproportionate impacts, problems solved!
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Sic transit gloria mundi (so shut up and get back to work)
