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Is the Fed too late with its interest rate cuts? On the one hand, it’s never too late. On the other hand, they should have cut rates a long, long time ago, dating back to when Biden’s job numbers cratered. They should have cut rates as soon as inflation started to slow.
Is the Fed too late? Experts question power of rate cuts now
I think we need a full interest rate point cut, 100 basis points…which we’ll never get. We have an outside shot at a 0.50% interest rate cut, with .25% the most likely cut, I’d say 7x more likely than a 0.5% rate cut, so call it: 6% no cut, 80% for a 0.25% cut, 11% for a 0.5% cut and 4% for more than a 0.5% cut.
The downward pressure on jobs caused by artificial intelligence is neither subtle nor insubstantial, and as AI gains in sophistication, all levels of white-collar jobs except those devoted almost exclusively to strategy are at risk, and many — if not most – will be eliminated.
Let’s take my business for example. If you divide the legal profession into four levels:
- Pure strategy
- Run-the-business with elements of strategy
- Run the business
- Commodity
…the first level will never be overtaken by AI. The fourth level is within three years of being eliminated. Third level is at least five years away, but not more than 10. Second level will be 80% eliminated in 10 years.
So. 2,000 large and regional law firms in the United States. I think half of all lawyers will be unemployed in ten years.
Teach your kids a trade. General contractors and sub-contractors are unlikely to be eliminated any time soon. News flash: the nation’s housing stock is old. Really old. Lots of housing built before and after WWII, housing that needs updating. How to pay for it? That’s another story…
Democrats are becoming obsessed with Newsom. They think the need a more traditional choice, that they just need to win and they think he’s a winner.
Gavin Newsom is becoming an obsession for Democrats beyond California
Newsome is leading “Undecided” in the polls. Not what I consider a ringing endorsement. More like – “If I have to pick someone, Gavin looks like a regular guy I could vote for”. I would love to see a debate between Vance and Newsom.
Me too. That would be a battle of wits. Vance would annihilate Newsom. Newsom has dyslexia and Vance has a tOSU degree and a law degree from Yale (he was at Sidley, great firm), was a venture capitalist, and was in the Marines and Iraq.
Incidentally, it wasn’t all that long ago that Newsom had record low approval ratings:
Newsom’s support has more than doubled from his June support. He’s (comparatively speaking) a manly man, at least relative to the other Democrats.
He has a chance. Personally, I hope he implodes, I think he’s a sleazy creep.
Trump just removed Kamala Harris’ Secret Service detail (it had been extended by Biden). I don’t know that she needs it. Her opponents definitely want her to stay alive…
Trump cancels Kamala Harris’ Secret Service detail that was extended by undisclosed Biden order
On a personal level, I’ve traveled late at night in many of the nation’s hot spots, including NYC, Philly, Detroit, and New Orleans. Never felt frightened there. Felt genuine fear on the Metro in Washington DC.
And while I am ranting, may I just say that I’ve spent a fair amount of time in DC’s Union Station. It’s actually not that bad, unless it’s really deteriorated in the last two years. Last I saw it, it was in pretty decent shape.
Trump Administration to Reclaim Control of DC’s Union Station
There is a lot of trash in Washington DC, and some of the largest rats you’ve ever seen.
National Guard to pick up trash in DC, work on ‘beautification’ – NBC4 Washington
I was in a group of women who were convinced that women were smarter because more women went to college and had higher SAT scores. Okay.
This is from 2012 SAT scores. 886k women took the test, 776k men took it. Average score for men, 1,031. Average score for women, 992. More men than women scored 1600s. And 1590s. And 1580s. To save you the suspense, in spite of the fact that more women took the test than men, men scored higher at every decile all the way down to 1130, the 61st percentile:
SAT-Percentile-Ranks-Composite-CR-M-2012.pdf
By 2024, the gap had closed to male test takers at 1029 and women at 1018.
Here’s 2024 data. See page seven. Males outnumber females by about 50% between 1400 and 1600 scores, and by 1% between 1200 and 1390, and again, by 2% in the 600 to 790 range, suggesting a flatter, broader distribution curve.
2024 Total Group SAT Suite of Assessments Annual Report
Three things stood out for me:
- In Hurlburt88’s link, Reince Preibus is the voice of reason, Ponnuru says the Dems have taken the working class for granted, and Brazile says she rejects the notion that the Democrats are on the other side of normal. The first two are correct. Brazile must have missed the news that billionaires from Big Tech, Big Finance, Big Media, Big Academia, Big Law and Big Hollywood are in the bag for the Democrats…as long as their taxes don’t get raised.
- “Our language sounds superior, haughty and arrogant.” Yes. Yes it does. It’s almost unbelievably alienating.
- And yet, the author refers to non-elite voters as “normies.” Yeah, do that. It’s not superior, haughty, arrogant or alienating at all.
The Democrats could do one thing to get back on track. Tax the heck out of the rich and the really rich. We’re going to have to do it anyway. They need to pound on that theme. But they won’t, because of BF, BM, BA, BL, BH and BT above. They absolutely depend on the billionaires.
Ted Kaczynski, too.
Ted Kaczynski Unabomber – Good Will Hunting (1997) – Movie Clip HD Scene
My favorite Democrat graph. Look how U. S. Grocery prices skyrocketed…after Trump left office and Biden took over.
Trump is now second place just behind Kamala Harris in the 2028 Presidential poll.
Gavin Newsom surges in 2028 presidential primary poll
Four months ago, he was at 4%, now he’s at 13% (Kamala is at 26%).
Also, the AI bots will speak unaccented English. Right now, life insurance companies are the only ones who can affort US-based speakers of unaccented english for customer support.
Crime is down in DC. But Trump needs to normalize this fascist crap so it seems routine when he sends the brownshirts to intimidate everyone in other blue cities. Don’t take my word for it. Here’s Trump’s own DOJ (and I do mean his own in a literal sense):
And, no, these stats aren’t manipulated. You can’t hide murders, for example, which are down 32%.
Those statistics are, in fact, manipulated. It’s a press release from the Washington DC District Attorney’s office.
The FBI’s statistics show that in the same time period, the total number of assaults, homicides, kidnappings, abductions and sex offenses fell in the capital from 23,914 in 2023 to 22,320 in 2024. That’s a 6.7% drop.
Nationwide murders and non-negligent manslaughter dropped 14.9% from 2023 to 2024.
Washington Metropolitan PD’s information shows the highest number of homicides since 2008. And this is at a time when crime in New York, California and Texas is dropping.
Map Shows How DC Crime Rates Compare to US States – Newsweek
On a personal level, I’ve traveled late at night in many of the nation’s hot spots, including NYC, Philly, Detroit, and New Orleans. Never felt frightened there. Felt genuine fear on the Metro in Washington DC.
