Mick

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  • in reply to: Governor Newsom’s land grab #10564
    MickMick
    Participant

    As of today, here is the percentage of registered voters by party in California:

    1. Democrats, 45.27%
    2. Republicans, 25.22%
    3. Independents, 22.34%
    4. Minor parties, 7.17%

    There are 52 seats allocated to California in the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. Here is the distribution by party:

    1. Democrats, 43 seats, 82.7%
    2. Republicans, 9 seats, 17.3%

    As you know, that paragon of political virtue, Governor Newsom thinks that having nearly twice as much political representation by his party in Congress isn’t enough. Now he wants more, and he wants to do it away from the independent districting commission in California. And his attorney general, Rob Bonta, says there is a legal path to do so through a special election: California attorney general says ‘legal pathway’ exists to redraw congressional maps In 2008, voters took the power away from California lawmakers to create an independent, citizen-led redistricting commission to avoid what Newsom wants to do. Governor Hochul (D-NY) says “all’s fair in love and war.” Instead of calling out Newsom on his perfidy, the San Francisco Chronicle warns that he has a tight timeline with roadblocks. Of course. Newsom faces a tight timeline to redistrict California. Here are the roadblocks

    I was at a wedding this weekend in Santa Barbara. My college roommate (godfather to my son and vice versa) has a son who married into a Pacific Palisades family of recently-former Democrats.

    Yes, there are still a lot of Democrats in this state, and Democrat-leaning independents. But watching two cities burn down and watching the Democrats do literally everything they can to prevent rebuilding Pacific Palisades is simply…extraordinary. That goes for demanding low-income housing to be built in PP, to a mandated foundational rise of 3-4 feet on the presumption that PP is a flood zone (I don’t think too much water is PP’s problem) to demanding new environmental impact reports and more.

    Pacific Palisades will be like La Haina. The fire was more than two years ago, on August 8, 2023. 2,000+ homes were destroyed (3% of all Maui’s houses). By early 2025, only two homes had been rebuilt, with a third home outside of LaHaina destroyed by the fire. As of August 8, 2025, exactly two years after the fire, only 45 houses had been rebuilt, so just over 2% of all destroyed homes.

    The Democrats have had an extraordinarily bad impact on this state. When will the Independents understand how they’ve dragged us down?

    in reply to: Powell signaling a rate cut in September #10563
    MickMick
    Participant

    Is the Fed too late with its interest rate cuts? On the one hand, it’s never too late. On the other hand, they should have cut rates a long, long time ago, dating back to when Biden’s job numbers cratered. They should have cut rates as soon as inflation started to slow.

    Is the Fed too late? Experts question power of rate cuts now

    I think we need a full interest rate point cut, 100 basis points…which we’ll never get. We have an outside shot at a 0.50% interest rate cut, with .25% the most likely cut, I’d say 7x more likely than a 0.5% rate cut, so call it: 6% no cut, 80% for a 0.25% cut, 11% for a 0.5% cut and 4% for more than a 0.5% cut.

    in reply to: Bureau of Labor Statistics #10560
    MickMick
    Participant

    The downward pressure on jobs caused by artificial intelligence is neither subtle nor insubstantial, and as AI gains in sophistication, all levels of white-collar jobs except those devoted almost exclusively to strategy are at risk, and many — if not most – will be eliminated.

    Let’s take my business for example. If you divide the legal profession into four levels:

    1. Pure strategy
    2. Run-the-business with elements of strategy
    3. Run the business
    4. Commodity

    …the first level will never be overtaken by AI. The fourth level is within three years of being eliminated.  Third level is at least five years away, but not more than 10. Second level will be 80% eliminated in 10 years.

    So. 2,000 large and regional law firms in the United States. I think half of all lawyers will be unemployed in ten years.

    Teach your kids a trade. General contractors and sub-contractors are unlikely to be eliminated any time soon. News flash: the nation’s housing stock is old. Really old. Lots of housing built before and after WWII, housing that needs updating. How to pay for it? That’s another story…

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by MickMick.
    in reply to: Will Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Presidential candidate? #10554
    MickMick
    Participant

    Democrats are becoming obsessed with Newsom. They think the need a more traditional choice, that they just need to win and they think he’s a winner.

    Gavin Newsom is becoming an obsession for Democrats beyond California

    in reply to: Will Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Presidential candidate? #10553
    MickMick
    Participant

    Newsome is leading “Undecided” in the polls. Not what I consider a ringing endorsement. More like – “If I have to pick someone, Gavin looks like a regular guy I could vote for”. I would love to see a debate between Vance and Newsom.

    Me too. That would be a battle of wits. Vance would annihilate Newsom. Newsom has dyslexia and Vance has a tOSU degree and a law degree from Yale (he was at Sidley, great firm), was a venture capitalist, and was in the Marines and Iraq.

    Incidentally, it wasn’t all that long ago that Newsom had record low approval ratings:

    Gov. Gavin Newsom Approval Ratings Have Sunk to an All-Time Low; ‘Hated by Younger People’ – California Globe

    in reply to: Will Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Presidential candidate? #10550
    MickMick
    Participant

    Newsom’s support has more than doubled from his June support. He’s (comparatively speaking) a manly man, at least relative to the other Democrats.

    He has a chance. Personally, I hope he implodes, I think he’s a sleazy creep.

    Newsom gains momentum as potential 2028 Democratic nominee

    in reply to: Kamala could have been President if… #10549
    MickMick
    Participant

    Trump just removed Kamala Harris’ Secret Service detail (it had been extended by Biden). I don’t know that she needs it. Her opponents definitely want her to stay alive…

    Trump cancels Kamala Harris’ Secret Service detail that was extended by undisclosed Biden order

    in reply to: Trump federalizes the DC Metro police #10548
    MickMick
    Participant

    On a personal level, I’ve traveled late at night in many of the nation’s hot spots, including NYC, Philly, Detroit, and New Orleans. Never felt frightened there. Felt genuine fear on the Metro in Washington DC.

    And while I am ranting, may I just say that I’ve spent a fair amount of time in DC’s Union Station. It’s actually not that bad, unless it’s really deteriorated in the last two years. Last I saw it, it was in pretty decent shape.

    Trump Administration to Reclaim Control of DC’s Union Station

    There is a lot of trash in Washington DC, and some of the largest rats you’ve ever seen.

    National Guard to pick up trash in DC, work on ‘beautification’ – NBC4 Washington

    in reply to: SAT #10539
    MickMick
    Participant

    I was in a group of women who were convinced that women were smarter because more women went to college and had higher SAT scores. Okay.

    This is from 2012 SAT scores. 886k women took the test, 776k men took it. Average score for men, 1,031. Average score for women, 992. More men than women scored 1600s. And 1590s. And 1580s. To save you the suspense, in spite of the fact that more women took the test than men, men scored higher at every decile all the way down to 1130, the 61st percentile:

    SAT-Percentile-Ranks-Composite-CR-M-2012.pdf

    By 2024, the gap had closed to male test takers at 1029 and women at 1018.

    Here’s 2024 data. See page seven. Males outnumber females by about 50% between 1400 and 1600 scores, and by 1% between 1200 and 1390, and again, by 2% in the 600 to 790 range, suggesting a flatter, broader distribution curve.

    2024 Total Group SAT Suite of Assessments Annual Report

     

    in reply to: Trump federalizes the DC Metro police #10538
    MickMick
    Participant

    How does that guy get taken seriously?

    Image

    in reply to: Libs still have not figured it out…… #10537
    MickMick
    Participant

    Three things stood out for me:

    1. In Hurlburt88’s link, Reince Preibus is the voice of reason, Ponnuru says the Dems have taken the working class for granted, and Brazile says  she rejects the notion that the Democrats are on the other side of normal. The first two are correct. Brazile must have missed the news that billionaires from Big Tech, Big Finance, Big Media, Big Academia, Big Law and Big Hollywood are in the bag for the Democrats…as long as their taxes don’t get raised.
    2. “Our language sounds superior, haughty and arrogant.” Yes. Yes it does. It’s almost unbelievably alienating.
    3. And yet, the author refers to non-elite voters as “normies.” Yeah, do that. It’s not superior, haughty, arrogant or alienating at all.

    The Democrats could do one thing to get back on track. Tax the heck out of the rich and the really rich. We’re going to have to do it anyway. They need to pound on that theme. But they won’t, because of BF, BM, BA, BL, BH and BT above. They absolutely depend on the billionaires.

    in reply to: Interactive ICE Detention Map Show 71% Not Criminals #10526
    MickMick
    Participant
    in reply to: Trump federalizes the DC Metro police #10524
    MickMick
    Participant

    My favorite Democrat graph. Look how U. S. Grocery prices skyrocketed…after Trump left office and Biden took over.

     

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    in reply to: Prediction #10520
    MickMick
    Participant

    Trump is now second place just behind Kamala Harris in the 2028 Presidential poll.

    Gavin Newsom surges in 2028 presidential primary poll

    Four months ago, he was at 4%, now he’s at 13% (Kamala is at 26%).

    in reply to: AI and Technology destroys jobs #10519
    MickMick
    Participant

    Also, the AI bots will speak unaccented English. Right now, life insurance companies are the only ones who can affort US-based speakers of unaccented english for customer support.

Viewing 15 posts - 166 through 180 (of 588 total)