Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
“don’t start nothin won’t be nothin”. Exactly.
And to certain parties I would add, “don’t condemn a war you funded”
Between some dreadful polling and some calls from donors they went orange man bad too orange man good. Biden and Harris are getting the hook.
Had lunch yesterday with someone close to the situation at the Fed. I had the same discussion with him as this thread and he addressed the housing part as well.
His feeling was that they would raise rates 25bp twice more and stand pat. He pointed out that Powell does not want to be another Arthur Burns. Too long to discuss here. But he said Powell is hell bent on getting inflation to 2% and it’s not going to happen.
He felt that housing is a big problem. I asked if he thought the Fed would cut rates, provide more liquidity, or move towards more lenient borrowing a la 2007. His comment was that they don’t think that way. They are not concerned about what is happening in the sector and my question was why.? He said they were all academics and look at data all day. It’s all they do. Housing was someone else’s problem. Go figure.
Congratulations to California and Maryland (which, including ‘The Fonz and Ed Markey (D-MA), now has 4 US Senators. The Fonz’s wife is NeNeki Lee who carries an aura of inspiration and strength.
I know a little about construction and I know that no one could build my house today (or most any other house I know of) any where close to what it will sell for.
My first home (50k, 1000/sq ft) was cheap to build. Could have easily done it myself. Lumber was cheap. Labor cheap. But that same house now would be far tougher for a new buyer to either buy or build. Lumber is sky high and so is labor if you can even find anyone. It’s out of reach for a first time buyer on both price and interest rates. Most young guys today don’t have the skills. to build a house.
So, I do believe rates have to drop and they will do it soon.
- Hire some good public relations people.
- Buy government securities, push rates down and inject money into the system.
As an aside, I don’t know how many young people can buy a house with the cost of lumber and the current rates. That’s why I think #2 above.
It’s an eye roller for KJP. After all high prices and shortages are part of the plan.
Shortages > higher prices > less travel > EVs > work at home >Lockdown > mail in ballots
This is getting interesting. Cushing Hub inventories at near historical lows. Export demand at historic highs and high interest rates are pushing the cost of storage up. Rig counts continue to decline.
Rising prices are a political problem and it’s going to be pretty hard to control this intentional mess.
As I understand it, they have done the impossible for the ungrateful for so long that they just can’t stand it anymore. The odds there for success are still good but the goods are odd.
Soaring prices should not happen. But central planners are allocating resources and creating shortages to force a green agenda no matter how much pain they inflict on citizens.
I’d like to see an org chart of who is really behind this all. At the top would be US Presidential Envoy of Climate John Kerry. The position is a member of the US Security Council. Kerry by the way will not reveal who is on his staff of at least 45 and he will not acknowledge what they are required to do under current law.
What is going on in Alaska is political, not based on anything remotely economic in response to DC politicians and their donors. Domestic and foreign.
As I understand some of these moves, there is nothing that I can see that benefits the voters other than higher costs with no end in sight. Voters are required to accept green politics with no dissent. And the kicker is that there is no data on voter mandate. They are just doing it.
I also believe the Saudi’s want $100/barrel for the time being. So does the administration I guess.
[quote quote=7689]Investments in shorter development lead time energy sources, see shale, are constrained by supply chain issues, capital constraints and acreage availability. Production from shale investments are short tail. As production declines from these sources, the government is using policy uncertainty to depress investment in long lead projects. Good luck with that approach to constrained supply.
That would seem like a good pathway to rationing and price controls. All you need is a trigger.
