[rjnwmill]

I’m a simple guy.  There are 150,000 gas stations/convenience stores in the US.  Anyone know what the cost is to mothball this infrastructure?  The cost of environmental remediation of the sites?  The number of jobs lost.

The cost of 100,000+ replacement charging stations?  The cost 140 million home charging units?  Another 5 million that will be required to serve the needs of the underserved living in apartment buildings?

The costs associated with the conversion of the personal & commercial vehicle stocks?

Seems like quite and investment to institutionalize higher energy prices?  So we have significant economic efficiency losses all for green goals?  Global GDP is reduced.  Wages and standards of living are reduced globally.

Perhaps a deadlier CCP virus is the best way to achieve that end…lower population results in less energy consumption, no?

I am so weary of politicians and their calamities du jour.  Their “solutions” are worse than the problems…see the headlines daily.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Things I’ve heard recently:

Covid cases and deaths have been over counted, perhaps materially by CDC.

cases are dropping materially in Southern states, specifically Florida.

Covid results have been materially and adversely impacted by CDC’s lack of attention to therapeutics.

There are reasons to question the efficacy of the government’s vaccine guidance. The lethality of the CCP virus remains concentrated amongst the aged and those with pre existing conditions.

If the above is true, Vaccine mandates should not be broad. Instead targeted specifically and narrowly at at risk populations.

Mandates that adversely impact the healthcare and transportation sectors are fraught with negative and unintended consequences.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Over the last six months the guys in the trading departments at major energy consumers look like the smartest guys in the room if they’re long. The obvious expectation is that they’ll overshoot the runway.

Any thoughts on where that point is?

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Neo, following on your energy market thoughts, this is a lengthy read that provides an interesting summary of where we are with the long term transition to “clean energy”. As in most things there is real risk if we underestimate the ability of politicians to screw things up.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/10/the-energy-crunch-spreads-but-climate-campaigners-press-on/

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Neo, thank you for calling attention to the “tail wags the dog” circumstances we now find ourselves in.

Our DC leaders are regulating the hell out of energy businesses and adopting a relatively hands off approach towards social media. They decry the prior administration’s go it alone policies and adopt that exact approach with respect to climate change. Let’s go it alone, let’s make our economy less competitive and let’s be real careful that we leave China and India fat and happy on the side lines.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Good read. Thanks

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

“My question about Trump from the start was and is does he have guile or is anything he says stream of consciousness???”

Interesting question. I recall an informal press event. I don’t recall the subject. He fielded a lame question from a media member. He gave a smart ass answer and I started laughing. The people around him remained stone faced. Except Kushner who couldn’t suppress a smile.

The press and the stiffs took him literally and there was the usual offense in the media.

I don’t know if it is good or bad for a President to show subtle  contempt. I like it myself.  However I can imagine it makes it difficult for foreign friends and adversaries alike…as well as House Speakers and senior military leadership. But hey, if it bothers you, try a booster shot of Clorox.

• This reply was modified 4 years, 7 months ago by rjnwmill.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

“The note about the vaccine killing “thousands” is disingenuous.  The avoided loss of life from the vaccine is far, far beyond the losses of life even peripherally related to the vaccine itself.”

This too is disingenuous?  The “avoided loss of life” is concentrated in those over 70, diabetic, obese, cardio vascular disease.  How many USAF pilots fit that description?

Of course this is political. But Austin did what he was told knowing the demographics. Let him live with the “unintended” consequences. That’s some pricey talent that walked out the door. Hell of a way to run an organization.

https://www.tyndall.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2478393/nothing-plane-about-training-the-worlds-future-f-22-pilots/

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

I appreciate the satire. Thanks

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Seems to me that Steven Bryer’s weekend comments on court packing are timely for this discussion.

I think there have been significant changes during my lifetime that have made our government institutions less effective. Structures included in the design of our institutions that made policy change more gradual and purposeful, more subject to consensus, have been altered over time.

And while the “minority party” has warned vociferously about the risk of the proposed changes, the majority party has pressed forward, irrespective of which party was in the majority. Politicians, knowing the risks, have prostituted our institutions. And as Breyer pointed out, all while playing an obviously zero sum game.

How can you put the genie back in the lamp?  Which party will voluntarily disarm?  I don’t see it. And that’s a pity.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

I’d worry about turning over Afghanistan to the 9-11 perps if it weren’t for Joe’s unparalleled “over the horizon” anti terror campaign infrastructure and the transparency of his military leadership.   We missed the bomber at the gate and blew away an aide worker and his family.  No worries though Joe…third times the charm!

At least Trump hit his targets.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

[quote quote=5219]Do you think a lot of our economic policies are now driven by AI algos?[/quote]

I wish. I think our economic policies are driven by ideological zealots. They are not focused on the performance of our economy in a competitive environment. Consider Yellen’s effort to raise tax rates globally. Like the Obama Iran deal, our tax policy would be outsourced to global bureaucrats. Who’s left to represent the American population, our standard of living or our personal freedoms?

The Animal Farm style pigs in DC populate both sides of the aisle and they are the “Interagency”, a term and class of people I abhor. They minimize the power to change of our elected government.

So, to finally get to the point, I don’t think we’re on auto pilot and I’m not at all sure it would be worse if we were.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

I’m not as certain as some about inflation. If Bernie taxes the hell out of the economic sectors with free cash flow we might be seeing less inflation than some fear.

Instead a fundamental shift in the share of “G” in the old equation, GDP=C+G+I+(X-M).

So what does an economy look like with less “I”, lower yields on “I” and more transfer payments to drive increasing “C”?

Growth is stifled. The growth premium in stock valuations is reduced. Over time our GDP stagnates and we become more uncompetitive on the margin.

I believe government guided investment decisions produce lower yields than private sector driven investments. The yield on “I” will decline over time. This too will prove to be a negative for GDP growth. I mean really, who would retain the firm of Ocassio, Omar, Talib & Sanders to manage their portfolio. Look at the performance of the public school system.

From an investment standpoint perhaps you consider rebalancing your portfolio across the global market?  Defying a fundamental Buffet axiom, has the time come to disinvest in/shift away from the US?

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Seems like a practical solution, no?  No sex, no abortion, excuse me, reproductive health care services needed.

Thanks Bette. Although the roads to La Grange may get crowded?

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Wel…it must be about time to send Susan Rice out to do the Sunday talk shows?

https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-call-before-afghan-collapse-biden-pressed-ghani-change-perception-2021-08-31/

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

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